Tuesday, Apr 06, 2010
Another bullbias article?
Bloomberg: U.K. Homeowners Predict 5.7% Price Increase, Web Survey Shows
“The lack of mortgage funding, especially for first-time buyers, remains the single biggest threat to a full housing market recovery.” What about affordability???
Yet again no mention of over inflated house prices. But what should we expect from VI?
Whee's the moral compass? Where's the commont sense argument against hig personal debt?
Posted by markj69 str05 @ 11:08 PM (1611 views) Add Comment
13 Comments
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1. paul said...
I'm getting a little tired of these 'running on empty' articles. My question is only this - what has changed? What fundamental in the supply and demand (both for houses and for credit) has shifted in the last week to require these bullish articles?
Nothing? Then they're not just bullish, they're bullsh*t. And to a good journalist, bullsh*t should smell stronger than advertising revenue moolah.
2. fallingbuzzard said...
Bad stories only make good stories after the election.
3. Open Minded said...
Another way of presenting this 'news' is that people think house prices will continue to follow actual HPI trend for the next six months.
I'm sure people on this site would be dancing around naked and singing at the top of their voices if a public poll pointed to an expectation that house prices were going to drop off a cliff. But HPI needs to establish a persistent negative trend before general views change. Good luck with that!
4. Boldbill said...
Turkeys vote overwhelmingly against christmas, and thanksgiving as well - read all about it.... :)
5. righttoleech said...
What an amazing article! The VIs would skin their grandmothers for a penny.
6. nomad said...
Some food for the bulls? A few days ago a comment was made here about the approaching demographic of boomers houses coming on to the market as they pop off. I'm not convinced about this because the oldest boomers, if the start point is 1946, are 63/64 so the sales will be over a long period of time. Also these "money boxes" will be passed on for children to live in, or to form a substantial deposit for several children - nothing to knock back house prices here.
However, this triggered the thought that the movement of the oldies has been happening for quite some time already, to a degree that should have impacted on prices. Until two years ago I lived close to a small shopping precinct in Solihull, Dovehouse Parade for those familiar with the area, and during the past ten years no fewer that four blocks of retirement apartments have been built on the crossroads adjacent to the shops. These total 300 to 350 homes that local people will have downsized to, selling on their family homes for good prices. Multiply this across the country and IMO you have a situation that really should have driven down prices. Any thoughts?
For those, like myself, who admire a little opportunism recent additions to that small row of shops are an undertaker and a florist.
7. inbreda said...
"nothing to knock back house prices here"
nonsense - if the kids live in the family homes they inherit, there will be an oversupply of flats that they are subsequently selling (or at least less demand for purchase - either way it still indicates a net increase in supply and reduction in demand).
You can't identify a specific and purpose built block of retirement apartments and multiply it across the country. there may only be 3 similar developments in the rest of the UK. And as you indicate by your calculation of ages, the flood is barely started yet.
8. cyril said...
@4 nomad...the conventional wisdom is that new supply of housing doesn't have much effect on prices because it's such a small proportion of the total and demand for houses is elastic (i.e. people buy more/bigger houses if they can afford it). 350 new houses in a place the size of Solihull is a drop in the ocean (and in any case, more oldies will move to the area because it's quite a nice place. Well better than Birmingham anyway!)
9. nomad said...
I'm thinking of the family homes being put on the market, 3 bed semis and up, as the oldies downsize to these retirement apartments. The retirement homes industry has been huge over the last ten years in all parts of the country - McCarthy & Stone et al - which has meant enormous movement out of family homes. I've looked for statistics but unsuccessfully, but I would have thought that the numbers would have impacted on the average family home, say between £250,000 and ££400,000. In this range, however, prices have remained robust.
Now living in Christchurch - highest percentage of pensioners in any town in the UK and every other building appears to be retirement flats or residential homes.
I like places with a buzz to them :-)
10. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
What actually is a full housing market recovery?
The resumption of the level of sales or unsustainable inflating prices?
I would hardly think it relevant to ask people who already own a house whether or not they want it to be worth more later this year.
Does anyone really find it strange that the answer was a positive one? This truly is a pointless article - more of an advert.
11. mark wadsworth said...
What Inbreda says at 5.
In terms of houses, there are plenty to go round, it's just that because of NIMBYism (and distinct absence of Land Value Tax) we live in a topsy turvy world where single pensioners live in the three bedroom 'family home' and todays 20 and 30 something couples are making do in one-bedroom flats.
12. nomad said...
Interestingly it does appear that, for now, the retirement apartment growth has stalled - saturation point has been reached. It may lead to a collapse - it was never felt that they would make money for individual buyers.
13. karlos said...
With a glut of retirees reaching pension age (and this will be 65 for some of them), they May fing that their pensions are not what they had predicted, and hence will need to downsize.
Luckily some of these will be in the group of people who have owners the same house for upwards of 15?years, and hence will not have taken on huge mortgages over the last 10 years. They might therefore be slightly more price-elastic.... Hopefully...