Friday, Mar 05, 2010
Reality of supply and demand as it should be
Business and finance: 17% of irish property is empty evn after falling 31%
DON'T LISTEN TO THE VESTED INTEREST HERE BABBLING ON ABOUT SUPPLY AND DEMAND...i HAVE NO DOUBT THERE IS DEMAND IN IRELAND BUT PRICES HAVE STILL FALLEN 31%...THIS IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN HERE
Posted by taffee @ 01:03 PM (1097 views) Add Comment
19 Comments
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1. mark wadsworth said...
Excellent.
2. mark wadsworth said...
Even more surprising is this, from the article: "Such high levels of vacancy are likely to have major impacts on the workings of Nama [the Irish 'bad bank']... the report states It also suggests that Nama could delay any recovery if it seeks to prevent any downward correction in prices."
Surprising clued up those chappies - over here, people think that simply preventing a downward correction is 'the recovery' in and of itself.
3. estrader said...
@2 Mark "simply preventing a downward correction is 'the recovery' in and of itself."
Well said. But it isn't just here. In the U.S the February payroll decline was 36,000 which was less negative than the market forecast for a 50,000 fall in employment, so this is seen as good news. It seems to me that in order to make news look 'good' they just have to make excessively bad forecasts.
4. str 2007 said...
Taffee
Interested to know why you think it will happen here aswell.
5. happy mondays said...
& How many empty houses in England?
The magic hands of the illusionist shall slip & all will be revealed!
Now who do i vote for? Who is there to vote for? I have no vote to give, all are a bunch of self serving numpties who through there arrogance & greed have robbed our children of a future!
Rerum Mutatio
6. taffee said...
str 2007...ireland is very similar to uk,but they have come clean with their budget and expectations and let a correction take place along with job and wage cuts....uk will follow as they have no choice
its simple economics
7. ontheotherhand said...
From the report;
"It is now clear that due to the economic and financial downturn the effective national demand for housing is likely to be at much lower levels than pre-recession forecasts"
"the national housing vacancy rate as of March/ April 2010 to be 17%. The level of excess supply in this vacant stock is estimated at approximately 170,000 of the total 345,000 vacant stock which allows for holiday homes, obsolescence in the housing stock and a standard vacancy rate of 5%. In summary, as at 2009/2010 an unsustainable vacancy rate exists throughout the State."
How could it be that everyone believed the forecasts for future demand were correct? Could it be that our own UK forecasts for household formation, which rely on the continuation of the 20 year trend towards single person households, will also turn out to be wrong?
8. str 2007 said...
Taffee
My suspicions are that Irelands house prices were in a bigger bubble than ours and they are also tied to the Euro as per Greece.
UK is a bigger and more diverse economy with (to a degree) the ability to set its own interest rates.
I hope you're right but it's not looking very likely at present IMO.
Perhaps not so simple economics, otherwise why wouldn't we have followed them and America already ?
9. estrader said...
@8, " tied to the Euro "
You could also consider this:
If you bought a property in Ireland at the peak (which I am putting at around early 2007) it would be worth 31% less now, fair enough.
Since then, the £ has fallen around 25% against the Euro. So, in £GBP, your investment in Irish property has only fallen around 7%. How much has property in the UK dropped since the peak of 2007? Is it around 12%?
10. Mark Molloy said...
estrader
you make a good point. but i think the fall in the UK is worse than just 12%...you have to add to that the fall in sterling to get a truer picture of the fall in UK property prices. And if anyone here writes "but you cant count the fall in sterling because I still get paid in sterling so its not the same blah blah blah" then words just fail me. help me out someone....
11. str 2007 said...
estrader
Yes about 12% at the moment, however if you were an Irish prospective buyer then you'd be looking at a 30-40% saving now over our peak 2007 prices if you take the GBP devaluation into account.
So in fact our prices have already fallen further than Irelands if you look at it that way.
Which is why I was questioning taffees statement in the header. Perhaps we've already had the fall, but unfortunately not seen it ourselves.
12. braindeed said...
happy mondays @ 5 said.
Now who do i vote for? Who is there to vote for? I have no vote to give, all are a bunch of self serving numpties who through there arrogance & greed have robbed our children of a future!
The numpties were voted in, because to have power and be voted in, requires the populist touch. Your childrens future was stolen by the ignorance of the electorate who dictated the agenda, and opinion formers of the right-wing laissire faire red tops and broadsheets.
We're all guilty.
13. devo said...
We're all guilty
but how to redeem ourselves: there's the rub!
14. braindeed said...
Education, education, education......every politician chases the populist vote - stop feeling good about beggar thy neighbour.....dont hold your breath though.
15. devo said...
Education, education, education
that cliché didn't get us very far
IT'S TIME FOR CHANGE!
oh, that cliché didn't get us very far either
16. braindeed said...
we need to go back to basics....erm
17. devo said...
I know! ... A future fair for all!
nah, that'll never work
18. braindeed said...
Genius.....Your country needs you
19. shipbuilder said...
Things can only get better.