Thursday, Mar 04, 2010
-1.5% MoM
Lloyds Banking Group: Halifax House Price Index
Commenting, Martin Ellis, housing economist, said:
"House prices fell by 1.5% in February, the first decline since June 2009 following seven consecutive monthly increases. Despite this fall, the average price is 8.0% above the trough reached in April 2009.There has been a decline in the underlying rate of house price inflation – measured by a comparison of the latest three months with the previous quarter – over the last few months. An increase in the number of properties available for sale has helped to reduce slightly the imbalance between supply and demand."
Posted by dill @ 09:22 AM (2307 views) Add Comment
35 Comments
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1. little professor said...
Ah, I see they are blaming that blasted snowy weather again. I too always postpone financial transactions whenever the weather gets a bit chilly.
2. magnifico said...
one point five...
that's a sizable drop.
3. phdinbubbles said...
Well worth the rush to beat the stamp duty holiday end then!
4. mrflibble said...
More than I expected from Hallifax. Now the trap is full of bulls we can hopefully resume the bear market again *lol*
5. mark wadsworth said...
@ PhD, I love a good maths joke :)
PS, going by their average prices, you'd have saved £237.43 by buying in Feb 2010 with 1% SDLT instead of Dec 2009 with 0% SDLT. Plus moving just before Xmas is a pretty fraught operation.
6. cat and canary said...
heh heh, agree with LP @ 1,
> wife: "fancy going clothes shopping today luv?"
> husband "nah, its a blizzard outside"
> wife: "fancy buying a house today luv?"
> husband "nah, its a blizzard outside"
...their logic doesn't quite follow somehow!!
I see we are still following the lifecycle bubble curve! ....next phase: fear
7. Cool_hand said...
It's all over, "the return to normal phase", it's only heading in one direction now. I wonder how low it will go?
8. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
9. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
10. mark wadsworth said...
And rather depressingly, the average is no longer five-year-on-five-year negative, but I'd expect this state of affairs to recommence in a couple of months. From Halifax full spreadsheet:
Jan 2005 £159,956
Feb 2005 £159,750
Mar 2005 £161,809
Apr 2005 £163,428
May 2005 £164,242
Jun 2005 £165,501
As against...
Feb 2010 £165,997
11. growler said...
We recently went to a a local agent in South Bucks. They told us they have little on. We knew all the properties they gave to us from some time back. You could see they knew we were not the only ones in rented waiting - dare I say a "frosty" reception.
For me, the proof of the pudding is one particular house. Jun 2007 value advised us by seller after his planned building works was 480K. We thought that was high back then. 2008 on market for 690k. Later 2008 on for 650k. We coudln't belioeve our eyes! Last week on market for 590. Now tears in my eyes. Still unsold.
The agent in question shows us the details and we told him we know the house and it's history. Agent "Would we consider making an offer?" in the full knowledge we know we're talking under 500. Don't worry HPCers, I'm not buying. I'm watching.
This morning: house now on the market with all the agents
Time for a mwahhahahahhahahahahah methinks
12. brickormortis said...
I heard that the original title was:
"Reality bites: £2500 knocked of average house price in one month!"
I wonder who pulled the plug!?
13. estrader said...
@6 Yes - Not for from me, 3 houses recently went up for sale. They are terraced houses about 1 house apart from each other. They are practically identical in every way, "cookie cutter" houses basically. In this situation, would you rather be a buyer or one of the sellers? This Government promotes competition; makes things cheaper for the consumer.
14. dill said...
@7
Pot and kettle, smugpuppy.
15. estrader said...
@7 Smugdog, the philosophy behind the graph holds true for every single asset class on the planet... Every-single-one. If you want to believe that houses will be different that is fine. If houses prices don’t fall then the £GBP will, or, inflation will soar. Either way, that graph is a reality.
16. cat and canary said...
heh heh, smugdog, stirring up the masses as usual!
..P.S. I never strayed from that lovely lifecycle curve, even when prices were rising. Smart money or wishful thinking? The former I reakon, definately worth the punt
17. str 2007 said...
Growler
Good to hear some anecdotal from an area I know.
Still a mixed picture down here, some things are still selling, some are comig back on, some are getting reduced.
The daily rightmove scan has revealed a new type of sale today, we usually see 'SOLD' or 'UNDER OFFER' today on a house that's previously fallen through we've achieved a 'RESERVED'. Not quite sure how strong a sale that makes it but hey.
As far back as '05 I've seen the early spring houses coming to market and backing up, making it look like the beginning of the end, then all of a sudden three or four will go one weekend closely followed by the rest.
So although some things look as though they're starting to stick, I'll reserve judgement until I see 3 months of falls and at least 2 consecutive falls after the election.
18. vacuouspolitician said...
"Time for a mwahhahahahhahahahahah methinks"
lol. Haven't seen that on this site for a while - used to be a poster that did that quite often...are they still around?
As for the article - lets see what happens - don't put your life on hold...
19. vacuouspolitician said...
"A few meagre scraps of red meat and the old 'bubbles' graph is wheeled out once again."
lol. Good fun, as always.
20. Thecountofnowhere said...
Weather should affect volumes not price.... Macdonalds don't drop the price of burgers when it snows... they just sell less.
21. techieman said...
Although i dont like the content of Smuggys post... he does have a point. As i have said before I dont think you can be bullish on being bearish on one months numbers.
Having said that the bear now does look ready to rise up again but we need at least one more set of negative numbers, and even then we might stall for a couple of months (but not rise). Confirmation that the momentum waning [yes smuggy i have spelt that right] is supported.
Say that we have a big fall in March and April though - Cameron will say... they have wasted our money and yet the economy is still in a complete mess.. look at hps (there may be some other indictors by then too). Then Cameron would probably secure the mandate and the pound would probably ramp up (for a day at least - although where we might be by then is anyone's guess).... Would we then have a feelgood factor? Nah dont think so, but it is interesting.
22. growler said...
Next month it will be last months sterling jitters, then it will be the election, then it will be the needed cuts, then it will be unemployment - then it will be Christmas
23. 51ck-6-51x said...
growler - you missed out the rise in base rates.
24. mark wadsworth said...
I've updated my chart comparing quarterly inflation adjusted price changes from Q1 1989 onwards with quarterly inflation adjusted price changes from Q1 2007 onwards, so far they are still matching up very well, especially if we assume that this quarter's price change will be negative as well.
25. flashman said...
So far we've had two of the usual suspects saying that house prices rose in Feb and one saying that they fell. I think I'll keep the champagne on ice until things get a bit clearer or maybe until the traditional Spring bounce period is over.
26. growler said...
flash: I'm not disagreeing with you, but we've had two of the usual suspects saying that prices fell
27. techieman said...
Mark - " so far they are still matching up very well"... except that a couple of blues have been above the line where their red equivalent has been below. In fact we should expect it to be a little different this time.... shouldnt we ???
28. mark wadsworth said...
Techie, I didn't say they were matching up perfectly, did I? :)
Plus the government has been going all out to prop up prices, postpone repo's and so on.
Also, what Growler says, the only two that are reliable and timely are Nationwide & Halifax.
29. flashman said...
growler: Fair enough. Two said it rose. Two said it fell.
30. techieman said...
"Plus the government has been going all out to prop up prices, postpone repo's and so on." - absolutely but thats not referenced in the blog... maybe you have limited space. In any case at least i followed the link :-).
31. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
So they feel it right to mention Stamp Duty, bad weather and low supply of properties.
But the real factor is the fairytale interest rates which are now supporting the housing market. Whilst savers are left with interest rates far below the level of inflation. Prudence means nothing to this government - only popular "buy the vote" now and "let them all pay for it later" scheme. Which exactly is what got everyone into this situation in the first place.
The policy of this government appears to be one of racking up as much personal and government debt as possible. I fail to see how this country avoids a double dip recession and hence further house price declines when the only solution to running out of money appears to be to borrow some more.
I am not sure at what point interest rates will be forced up - maybe someone here does !?! but that - coupled with cuts in government spending - will be the true test of the housing market in this country. Everything else appears to be a side show.
32. luckyjim said...
Well well well. That is a wee bit like letting a goal in just before half time. If only we had kept a clean sheet 'til Spring.
Next goal wins it.
33. vacuouspolitician said...
Jar Spoon Jar Jar Spoon
You like potato and I like potahto, You like tomato and I like tomahto
Potato, potahto, Tomato, tomahto... Let's call the whole thing off...
34. phdinbubbles said...
"jar jar spoon"
Wasn't he that annoying CGI creature in starwars?
35. Doogle Doogle said...
Is Martin Ellis really an economist, 'cause he talks about "an imbalance between supply and demand"? Or is a "housing economist" a sort of not-economist economist, sort of like those homeopathic "doctors"?