Monday, Mar 29, 2010
"if we want lower house prices, fundamentally we need to build more homes"
Fund Strategy: Home truths about chronic shortage
House prices are rising. Or not, depending on which measure you prefer. But activity in the housing market, at least, remains weak, with mortgage approvals running at about 60% of their pre-2006 average. And with credit conditions likely to remain tight as banks shrink their balance sheets, prices could stagnate or even fall in 2010, provided that the supply of properties coming onto the market picks up. But while there is a good relationship between house prices and market activity in the short run, how should we gauge longer-term prospects for house prices?...................
Posted by jack c @ 12:42 PM (721 views) Add Comment
7 Comments
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1. mark said...
rubbish
what about the million or so empty properties?
What about all those old follies and churches just sitting empty because of archaic planning laws
2. quiet guy said...
I cannot argue against the idea that building more homes should lower prices but the author has more or less ignored the role of easy credit in the recent price surge.
I'd also have appreciated a clearer definition of the first graph. According to the graph, "Housing consumption" rose from 8% in 1963 to 16% in 2009. What do those percentages actually signify?
3. Simon said...
When I was at school the population of the UK was estimated at 56million , estimates put that around 63million now .
With our open door immigration policy it will never be possible to build enough houses .
Perhaps the Govt are trying to make things so bad here that anyone who is mobile will emigrate .
4. timmy t said...
Agree with Mark - its not that there aren't enough houses, its that those have been built have been bought by speculators and amateur BTL's. If we had a tax system which encouraged people to buy houses for living in rather than making money out of, and a FREE market then we'd be just fine.
5. str 2007 said...
Exactly, how many people had 2 houses in the 70's & 80's, even the 90's come to that.
Now every other person in their 50's seems to have a holiday house or a BTL and quite alot in their 30's & 40's have multiple properties.
You simply have to end this multiple ownership.
Building more houses with current laws in place will simply mean BTLers expanding their portfolios and mopping everything up off plan in the hope of a quick flip.
6. tenant super said...
I don't mind people perpetuating the housing shortage myth if it leads to more building. We do not currently have a housing shortage but we may well do in future. I am not against multiple ownership so long as enough homes are left for buyers who just want to buy just one.
I would like to see tenants given better rights. I know two elderly sisters who have rented their house privately for decades and because of the nature of the tenancy are still paying 1970s rent levels and can't be evicted without a lengthy court process that is going through now. I don't think this is fair to the landlord so change was needed but it swung too far the other way. There should be a minimum of six month notice to quit and if the household comprises children under 18 years old, they must be allowed to stay until the end of the academic year or the end of their exam syllabus if they're in GCSE or A Level years (even if that exceeds 6 months). Deposits in the protection scheme should be rolled over to the next property.Tenants should be allowed to make reasonable adjustments to decor and annual rent hikes must not exceed X% above CPI. CGT should be raised to the same level as income tax. That should put off the majority of small BTL amateurs.
7. landofconfusion said...
"and annual rent hikes must not exceed X% above CPI."
Just ban BTL & right to buy, sell and rent back. Then buy housing stock (existing and new build) and make that the only source for rentals.
And at the same time introduce LVT.
Problem solved.