Friday, Mar 05, 2010
A Friday Afternoon Chuckle
Guardian: Fraud Charges for Americas Prophet who Claimed to Predict the Stockmarket
Seriously though the S & P 500 and FTSE are close approaching the levels they peaked at in early January.
Is this about to form a 'double top' with the early January high or will it be onward and upward from here ?
And will the outcome effect Gold and Houses Prices ?
Posted by str 2007 @ 04:59 PM (509 views) Add Comment
15 Comments
- If you do not have an admin password leave the password field blank.
- If you would like to request a password allowing you to add comments and blog news articles without needing each one approved manually, send an e-mail to the webmaster.
- Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
- Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user's views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
- Please adhere to the Guidelines
1. estrader said...
Of course the S&P500 is rallying, there wasn't much doubt in my mind it would, I said so back in late January.
"ESH0 - I am not seeing any signs yet of this rally ending. I expect the market to hit the mid to high 1150's soon.
1:02 AM Jan 20th via web"
http://twitter.com/escontract
Cue techieman *LOL* ;)
2. Crunchy said...
For as long as Geithner still walks free, forget it.
3. str 2007 said...
Traders today bouyed by the 'not as bad as expected' Non Farm Payroll figures in the US.
Now is this the news that fits with a completion of a 'double top', and when the traders have digested it over the weekend and decide that actually 36,000 more people out of work this month compared to last is actually quite bad, will it be the resumption of a falling market ?
4. estrader said...
@2 str2007, Not sure if your question was directed at me, but let me assure you of this, only amateurs and the public trade 'The News'. The news is mostly a fog or a smokescreen that may explain very minor rallies and reactions but not the trend. I have said this before and was criticised but I will say it again, with absolute conviction - There are 3 major players in the market:
1) The Strong hands - They know exactly what they are doing ALL THE TIME.
2) The Weak hands – They sometimes know what they are doing and sometimes take guesses.
3) The Public – They are ALWAYS wrong.
Unless things change by the end of trading today I remain with my original forecast and I figure the ES (S&P500 mini futures) market should go higher from here, by at least another 10 - 20 points. I just don’t see any signs of the market turning yet.
5. estrader said...
@3 I don't mean 10-20 points today!!
6. 51ck-6-51x said...
"Traders today buoyed by the 'not as bad as expected' Non Farm Payroll figures in the US."
I thought the consensus was about -30K - so worse than expected, right?
estrader - I would rephrase, the public are wrong on aggregate more than they are right. Furthermore being right or wrong is not the be all and end all, if you are right you can still lose and vice versa.
7. dill said...
estrader @3
I'm honour bound to correct:
3) The Public - They are ALWAYS having to guess/surmise/interpret with experience to improve.
On 1) and 2) are you implying insider trading?
8. bystander said...
@dill - insider trading or controlling the whole affair?
9. estrader said...
@6 Possibly but I wouldn't dare say that. More like large investors or institutional investors who have a much, much better understanding of conditions than economists, governments, the media and the public. However, they take a much longer term view, like 6 - 12 months in advance, so it's likely this rally is the result of what took place back in March 2009 when central banks pumped extraordinary amounts of money into 'the system' so to speak. However, in saying that, I don't concern myself so much with the 'whys', I just try to observe and figure what the market proposes to do next and let the 'why' reveal itself later.
@5 You are absolutely right. It takes many years of assiduous, study and practice. It is with the benefit of hindsight that allows you to put things into context then refine and 'perfect' your ability to forecast future market movements.
Good trading to all.
10. wdbeast said...
Posted by str 2007 - The answer to your main question is 40.
11. str 2007 said...
666
According to FX Calender they were expecting -68k so quite a bit better, hence the rallies I guess.
estrader
I didn't trade today to avoid trading around news, having said that it was very tempting to step in once the trend established itself after the news & I would have made a few quid. But there's always next week.
I thought there may be some interest as the 2 main markets we follow reach their previous high.
Even the pound picked up, in fact has been all week. Since the big falls early on.
12. iguana said...
wdbeast
Silly, no.....it's 42.
13. techieman said...
Estrader sorry about not commenting... been out enjoying the crisp sunshine....this weekend.
Fair point, and yes a very impressive move in the S&P on Friday. Howevr its a bit disingenuous to say that in January you expected a breach of 1150 and claim that was a good call. We both know that at 1044 (basis cash) that its unlikely that anyone would have been holding longs losing that much money, based on a recommendation in January. Now had you suggested going long at 1045, then that would have earned quite a bit of respect (and you could have done i know there was a nice MA line just there).
As you also know i liquidated most (but not all - about 5% left) of S&P H shorts @ between 1050 and 1060 (on the way down to 1044) v -1132 - which itself was 50% of normal size. you are also right to imply that i didnt think 1150 would be breached on the retracement. And i did short @1109 (liquidated @ b/even) and got stopped out on the remaining 5% @ 1132 again at b/even.
As we know 23 out of the last 26 mondays have gone up, so it would be ideal for a small break of 1150 to the upside and then a break down that takes out the first gap and continues on a turnaround tuesday. Everybody knows the market is overbought.
Personally i dont want to lie on here, so yes i did take a punt on a short FTSE position and a short Dax position, both without confirmation and both were quite small. I took the Dax position friday morning and got out with a very small loss (i moved the stop close by and it was guaranteed just in case the NFP did the damage, i ended up losing about 5pts) on a £10 a point size- which itself is 5% of normal in a Dow / Dax / Ftse market. As for the FTSE again that cost a few bob more (abut 20points on a 10% of normal position),
So where now? Well yes i am (still) looking for a major short play, probably after some confirmation or on stop below the gap, where the bulls will have their stops. The way i do that is toe-dip (as i am only interested and can only get excited, when there is at least some cash on that table). If you want to go long here then by all means do so, i would admire yr balls if nothing else!
I must admit my surprise to the move in the FTSE particularly as yes i did think the 5600 highs wouldnt be breached, but hey its not like i held shorts from 5100 upwards ( i think there is a posting here where i actually said that i thought the FTSE was losing momentum to the downside.
In fact this is exactly what i said:
"5200 has both trendline and general support, so would expect it to lose momentum once it gets around there. Then a bit of a pullback then another move lower then a more sensible retracement. Basically this move so far is "off the top" and i generally wouldn't be involved in it. I would (and will) wait for this more sensible retracement." Thursday, January 21, 2010 10:49PM. "
Ok so the sensible retracement has been more than 100% :-).
As they say EStrader - take the bones out of that.!!
In any case it does make me smile - one minute your long terms calls dont matter and you only trade short term then the next they do matter..... funny that..... :-)
14. techieman said...
EST I will post it for you: "I didn't think you would want to acknowledge that I was right, 100% right. I don't remember saying that my medium-long term calls don't matter. What I would have said is that I TRADE short term movements but I like to make longer term forecasts based on what I see happening. When you said that my call of 1150 "Couldn't possibly be more wrong" my reply was "MAYBE". Also, you conveniently ignore my two short term calls on twitter which were 100% spot on, precisely, exactly. Check your chart against the time I made the calls. NB, the time on twitter isn't GMT, I think it's US unless you are logged in. You also conveniently ignore that I said the 1061-1063 level was important and say if I had gone long at 1045 I would have had your respect. The market is now 75 points ABOVE 1061 heading towards 1150, where I said it would move to, whereas 1045 is only a 16 point retrace below 1061."
15. techieman said...
... well thats a bit of a tirade!
First of all I just wanted to let you know i wasnt ducking the post here - @1 where you say "cue techieman"... Just i was out most of the weekend. Second, the last sentence (thats obviously annoyed you) was actually a bit tongue in cheek. I am guessing you are not English otherwise you might have just smiled and understood the way in which i was saying that. In any case i am happy to apologise if it upset you.
I cant remember saying "you couldnt be more wrong" but you might want to post where that came from. As for what i recall that was as follows re 1150: The first quote is yours from http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2010/02/blog-what-a-pig-27660.php.
"Bear food? I doubt it, just a little reaction for the public and the weak hands in my opinion. I figure the ESH will be back up to the mid to high 1120's or higher sometime in the next couple of weeks. I figure it should break above the mid to high 1150's.
But as always, do your own research!
Friday, January 22, 2010 07:52AM"
and i said:
"estrader - its a safe call, but that doesnt make it a right one in my view. Still yes the odds are in your favour but i personally would have to disagree on this occassion. Im sure you will realise this from other postings.
And anyway why quote the emini for March? Why not the bigger bruv. SP? Re 1120 yes that might happen after some more downside first - i.e. as a retracement - but we arent a million miles away from that anyway - sneeze and it might blip up there. As for the breach of the prior top though we will just have to agree to disagree. The volume this week was pretty big comparatively."
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2010/01/blog-shame-on-you-brown-and-darling-27357.php
Ok so at that time we know that the market went down to 1044 (basis cash), so my point was you can't call a breach of 1150 [if it does :-)]from where we then were, was successfull if anyone would have probably been taken out by the lows @ 1044. You yourself had a go at me for having a "big" stop (and it was only 24 points not 50), so i cant see how saying a 1150 call at around say 1100 and it first going back to 1044.... is successfull. Infact it was bear food as i said.
As i tried to show above . ""5200 has both trendline and general support, so would expect it to lose momentum once it gets around there. Then a bit of a pullback then another move lower then a more sensible retracement. Basically this move so far is "off the top" and i generally wouldn't be involved in it. I would (and will) wait for this more sensible retracement." Thursday, January 21, 2010 10:49PM
Now that is a successful call, it more or less did exactly that., the only think that is wrong with the call is the retracement, to which i have admitted i am head scratching a bit :-).
At the end of the day i dont see the sense in posting the "publics always wrong" "strong hands" "weak hands", unless you want to say where each reside or where you think they do.
As for 1061 again yes you said that "was an important level" but that is meaningless.... what so does that mean it should find support there or does it mean if it doesnt we are going down in a big way? Or did it mean it could break to the downside but not by very much??? Or all of the above?
At the end of the day i was looking to see if your calls had credibility - basically to see if i could piggy back them (see thats a compliment) but sadly it didnt work out that way. At the end of the day we can all be right or wrong but whats more important is the money you make when you are right and the losses you make when you are wrong.
On here i called the low (time) to the March 2009 low, i also said that if FTSE went above 3950 then we would have a retracement to shake the weak buyers , but that then the market should go up quite alot.... more than most people thought.... i also said that it looked like there would be a DCB on the property incdicies before there was (i think November of 08) and when everyone was telling me i was being stupid.
I honestly would give credit if you were right (although as i said im not sure it matters - im in the market to make money not for credibility for some calls), however "Also, you conveniently ignore my two short term calls on twitter which were 100% spot on, precisely, exactly. " if its that important to you i will give you some credit.... assuming you can tell me what you mean specifically.
As i said though i'm really not sure why my respect or otherwise would actually matter..... very odd!
Now i agree i might be proved wrong on that 1150.. time will tell! As for the move in the FTSE yes i was wrong about that, but again what did it cost? Far less than when i was right, and if we are right half the time and we make more when we are than lose when we arent then..... thats a positive expectation game.