Friday, Feb 26, 2010
The Office for National Mis-information?
Telegraph: Britain emerged from recession quicker than first thought
'The Office for National Statistics said that the UK's gross domestic product - the broadest measure of overall economic performance - increased by 0.3pc in the final three months of 2009, rather than the 0.1pc expansion it had previously estimated.'
Posted by hpwatcher @ 11:06 AM (1089 views) Add Comment
14 Comments
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1. 51ck-6-51x said...
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/oienr0210.pdf
2. 51ck-6-51x said...
^ is the sumary.
This is the release: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/oie0210.pdf
3. mystie010 said...
Anything that prompts a quicker election is great if Brown has got any sense he will go now and ride off the back of this news. I can't wait till this New Labour shower have gone!
4. wdbeast said...
Wow, Brilliant, well done Gordo.
The only way is up!
Unemployment UP
Debt UP
Interest rates UP
Cost of living inflation UP
A total Fook UP
5. 51ck-6-51x said...
I'm quite surprised:
So, this is mostly due to improvement in the services sector, which is in a large part due to financial services (108.2 -> 108.6 and a high weight). Looks like the city is pulling us up by our bootstraps after all - maybe we can all claim benefits except a select few who can flog financial products to the foreign industries selling us our flat screens and the like.
6. hpwatcher said...
The fools think it's all over.
7. Thecountofnowhere said...
Brown Fiddle while London Burned.....
8. paranoia blue said...
The phrase “think it’s all over” is actually ambiguous.
I know my interpretation :{
9. i remember the 90`s said...
And yet the £ goes down futher against the $ not much confidence is there.!!!!!!!!!!
10. brickormortis said...
How does this fit with yesterday's release? Surely it doesn't add up!?
11. mountain goat said...
"Q4 UK GDP was revised up from a rise of only 0.1% to 0.3%, this was largely the result of general government expenditure.General government expenditure rose by 1.2% (not annualized) during the period, the strongest rise since 2003."
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/26/159946/arti-fiscally-enhanced-gdp/
Anyone would think there was an election imminent.
12. Bystander said...
Point one - statistics are created to suit whomever is asking for them, in this case GB and HMG from the ONS, a government department - so no impartiality there.
Point 2 - 1.2% rise in general government spending.....ah, that would be GB's much celebrated Keynesian model, which would mean that when the next government are forced to rein in spending can we expect a similar drop of 1.2%+ and therefore drop us back into recession. These government spends are purely short termism, and as MG said: "Anyone would think there was an election imminent."
13. mark wadsworth said...
The ONS are pretty straight actually, but this 0.2% upwards revision will just mean that this quarter's figure is 0.2% lower than it otherwise would have been.
14. drewster said...
I'm not surprised at all. If you've ever run a small business, you'll know that there's quite a bit of flexibility in the date when a VAT invoice is raised. It's safe to assume that a lot of extra invoices were raised in December (to beat the VAT increase) even though the goods were shipped / services were delivered in January.
As a simple example, here's an article from the Telegraph's Motoring section, printed a week before the VAT increase:
Telegraph: Hidden pain of VAT increase
"The fact is, the VAT rate is currently 15 per cent and will stay that way until December 31, 2009. And I placed my formal, written order for the new car before that cut-off date. However I now have to wait for the factory to build my humble runabout, which is scheduled to be delivered to me in late winter/early spring next year."
No doubt this VAT invoice contributed to the GDP figures, even though the car won't be delivered for 2-3 months. All told, we can expect next quarter's GDP figures to surprise to the downside.