Sunday, Jan 24, 2010
So close I can feel it in my bones...
Telegraph: Britain on the brink of leaving recession
Excellent news everyone... "City economists expect figures published this week will confirm that Britain has pulled out of recession, with gross domestic product in the fourth quarter up by 0.3% on the previous three months."
Posted by mrflibble @ 01:17 PM (2922 views) Add Comment
35 Comments
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1. techieman said...
Telegraph: Britain on the brink of leaving recession.... to go into depression??
2. nobby1963 said...
Read all the comments left at the bottom - people are not daft as they know its all smoke n mirrors and there is worse to come!!
3. Gazh36 said...
Wow! A whole 0.3% after all this money printing
4. Tochinoki said...
This really is clutching at straws...
5. goweresque said...
Double-plus good!!!
6. brickormortis said...
@gower: It is nice to see some Orwelianites on here. That boy knew something extra. He knew it. Goddam.
7. braindeed said...
4. brickormortis said...
@gower: It is nice to see some Orwelianites on here
Supreme irony.....Orwel's real name was Eric BLAIR
8. Tochinoki said...
Two gin-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Big Brother.
9. doahh said...
To be revised to -ve growth next month when they will once again claim we are coming out of recession.
10. mark said...
I am currently in the USA have been since Dec, even though they claim USA is out of recession it is sooo bad here, more and more people are losing houses, more and more people are losing jobs, companies are going bust everywhere, yet for some reason it is not in the news..
anyone want to buy some desks? I have been offered a load from a company going bust near our offices... lol
tell you what we are being fed some BS in the news, the reality of it all is very bleak
11. waitingtobuy said...
I think the politicians are all living in the past, when the general public did not know what the fuuk was going on, but the internet has changed all that.The question is ,now that we do ,what are we going to do about it!! revolution?
12. smugdog said...
It does seem unclear whether we have actually had a recession in some quarters.
As I have mentioned before (yet shot down many times), many have been doing
quite nicely with plenty in their pockets thanks to the generosity of Alistair and Merv.
So has the recession just been postponed, ready to pounce once it matters no more.
Those on this site who wish beyond hope that we are entering a mother of all recessions,
there is something very worrying and sinister in your views and aspirations.
13. fallingbuzzard said...
where have you been, old dog?
14. enuii said...
Smugdog, most of us are just observing what is going on around us and many of us do not live in and around Londinium so have seen nothing of Alistair and Merv's generosity.
Where I am currently working 5% of the staff were given their notice last week and there has been no payrises since 2007, eleswhere other aquaintances are on short hours and a good proportion of my fellows are supporting economically inactive children (students), holidays are being postponed this year and cars are not being replaced. Meanwhile fuel and food are starting their inexorable climb upwards as will mortgage costs.
So if GDP is going up it is a statistical blip, anyway up 0.3% is pathetic considering we are comparing Jul/Aug/Sep with Oct/Nov/Dec, more wishful thinking than anything else, Jan/Feb/Mar will be a shocker but will be blamed on the weather (very British).
15. waitingtobuy said...
Smug@9 All I want is for my children (young working adults) to be able to buy their own homes without becoming mortgage slaves,I was born in an era when the father went out to work and paid for the food and roof,and mothers mothered.Now both parents have to work to pay the mortgage, and the kids are farmed out,---the result---devil children!!!
16. quiet guy said...
Smugdog,
You've just explained clearly why there are people worried about the state of the economy and how they will be affected.
"many have been doing quite nicely with plenty in their pockets thanks to the generosity of Alistair and Merv."
Alistair and Mervyn do not have any money of their own to be generous with. If they are favouring certain groups of the population by giving them money then they can only achieve that by taking away money from others. Try to remember that whenever a politian solemnly promises to make someone a bit richer, they are implicitly promising to make the rest of us a bit poorer.
Perhaps that is why there are so many "worrying and sinister" (LOL) people on this website - they've seen the results of government generousity.
17. mrflibble said...
@9. smugdog...
As I have mentioned before (yet shot down many times), many have been doing
quite nicely with plenty in their pockets thanks to the generosity of Alistair and Merv.
Too true, at the expense of the currency and the savers.
Those on this site who wish beyond hope that we are entering a mother of all recessions,
there is something very worrying and sinister in your views and aspirations.
Hoping for house prices to fall is one thing but what I fear the most now is what else is going to come along with it. Our time to have the crash has come and gone and all we got was a blip. Prices are now again too high for FTB's to buy in without the aid of exotic finance. At the same time prices cannot be allowed to crash as out technically insolvent banks will truly become insolvent. We have also reached the end of the road with QE to keep the whole thing propped up - any more and the markets are going to cane Sterling. We are on the cusp of something that is for sure, full blown detonation or painful stagnation? House prices may continue to rise but it will be on the back of inflation with our currency becoming more and more worthless. Personally I feel the currency is already worthless when you look at what sh-t holes are on sale for quarter of a million pounds.
High house prices are nothing to be proud of. If the average house cost a nominal £20k then every person could own one and enjoy every penny they earned on the things in life they wanted. Instead this country has chosen to break the back of its population with crippling high house prices. On paper we may have once looked like a rich nation but socially we are poorer than we have ever been. And the government wonder why the young are out binge drinking, what else they going to do? Sit in their rented dump aspiring to own the average £160k house with their measly £12k salary while coughing up £600 a month in rent. The younger generation have been completely hosed to preserve the unearned housing riches of the older generation.
This country is FUBAR and all roads now lead to extreme pain.
18. Crunchy said...
12. waitingtobuy
The Rockefeller Foundation funded the Women's Liberation Movement. As you know, prior to that only 50% of the population payed income tax, yet we managed better than now.
Go figure! The devil's children indeed.
19. happy mondays said...
What mrflibble said.....& did someone mention Revolution !
20. tyrellcorporation said...
Well said mr flibble.
21. devo said...
smugdog said: anyone who doesn't think like me is worrying and sinister
better raise the terror threat level then
22. matt_the_hat said...
Gentleman I fear the cause is lost. If 90% of money in circulation is debt paying a return to our banker friends of 5% then can someone tell me how much the economy needs to grow just to pay the bankers. We are in recession and will remain there for this century. Learn how to grow your own food and buy a gun.
23. smugdog said...
Falling Buz, I've been licking my ar$e in the sun, thank you very much.
24. devo said...
19. smugdog said... I've been licking my ar$e in the sun
just when you thought the tabloids couldn't go any further downmarket...
25. novice pete said...
I doff my virtual hat to enuii and mrflibble.
devo, lol @ 20
26. techieman said...
"19. smugdog said... I've been licking my ar$e in the sun"
What can't you get someone else to do it smuggy???
27. growler said...
Mr Flibble: "High house prices are nothing to be proud of."
Perfectly put.
28. fallingbuzzard said...
@19, dog, age is no qualification for smugness
29. clockslinger said...
mrflibble @ 14, I concur entirely but can't help thinking that HPI isn't all that is wrong, nor the root of it. All of us need to rediscover that consuming more doesn't equate to happiness and measuring worth and value by price is a crude measure ill suited to being a fully functioning person. I certainly don't relish the prospect of more and more building as a way to reduce HPI ramped up by speculation, easy money and greed. The same model, and type of people, are behind the souless estates, the easy credit, the estate agencies, the cheap booze and the propaganda from the media that are the soma keeping the young dumb and numb. It's all part of the same value system. From the early 80'sThatcher encouraged HPI, property speculation and the little speculator in all of us to take the place of a decent state pension and any kind of community or, indeed, respect for anything but money and materialism...and Nu Lab and all of us have done nothing to disappoint her.
30. Tochinoki said...
1 front row seat for revolution please.
I'll probably lose half my teeth by a policeman's truncheon and be detained indefinitely for 'domestic terrorism', that is if I don't bleed to death in the inevitable kettle. Still, anything beats having to deal with one more shady BTL landlord.
31. Neilb said...
@ MrFibble. This should pinned. The older boomer generation should be ashamed at what they have done to the generations after them. There was a review of the naughties on BBC TV the other week: The sight of 2 boomers in an airport guffawing and boasting about spending thier childrens money on holidays made me feel sick.
Revolution anyone?
32. Daveats said...
Recession will be over before the election... ladbrookes won't even take a bet on it... but it will return after me thinks.
33. Thecountofnowhere said...
Hooray...just in time for the election...now if I were cynical......
34. fallingbuzzard said...
Now we're confirmed to be out of recession. Gordon just said that he is "confident the economy is emerging from recession". Given that he got the ONS GDP release at 9.30am this morning, we can take it as read. Put the Cristal on ice!
35. Harre said...
Yawn, I'm swiftly beginning to lose interest in this site. In 2007 it was a breath of fresh air, shouting out what everybody ignored. Now in 2010 the majority here seem to be so preoccupied trying to find excuses and conspiracies to why the market has recovered they sound even more removed from reality than Kirsty and Phil was 3 years ago.
Get a life guys and realise that we've had the correction. Yes it's still in process in some parts for some types of property, essentially where sellers refuse to see sense and accept their losses. BUT, the businesses in general are doing better and trade is picking up and with that the house market is picking up too. Oh dear we have 10% unemployment, well I guess that means 90% are in work and making money. They will still look to move to bigger and better things.
Get back to what you should be doing, providing a counter weight against ridiculously optimistic stuff like Kirsty and Phil. Just because the media now has a more somber attitude to the house market doesn't mean HPC has to go overboard and desperately try to find even worse scenarios. It may be hurting pride to see that predictions of the massive crash in 2009 turned out to be very small and in a lot of cases instead a slight increase. Of course you can argue yourselves to death and say the pound dropped like a stone and that the prices actually fell as long as you're a tourist but let's keep it real for the people who live and work here shall we.
In a real life example this is what's happening in the reasonably average city in Britain that I live in. I've been looking to buy a place since 2007, have followed the market daily since then and viewed more flats and houses than I want to admit.
Modern flats in the city centre are struggling unless they have super location and parking. Even a "luxury" penthouse 2 bed in a perfect, quiet spot, with decent views and parking takes time to sell for a fixed price of 175k. The same place was bought 4 years ago for 320k...albeit by a company and not a private person.
The new builds are doing everything they can to attract buyers but with a fair few repossessions in the same blocks they're trying to push people in to they're having a hard time. Flats originally advertised at 250 have dropped down to 200 but repos available at 140.... You do the maths.
Old established houses and flats in established areas haven't suffered too badly since the peak, 15-20% seems to be the norm. There's simply too much old money here and nobody is forced to sell, unless they pass away... And the demand for these areas is simply too high for them to drop any further. Salaries aren't going down even if they're not going up. The comparably few people who do get laid off don't affect the market enough.
Dream on if you want of another dip of 50% or more that you seem to salivate thinking about. The rest of the world continues and most people rather own their own place than rent.