Thursday, Jan 07, 2010
Plus ça change
Guardianunlimited: Interest rates and quantitative easing on hold
Let's have a sweepstake gang - put our (cyber) money where our mouths are;
Where's the the HP index going to be Dec 2010?
Any ideas on a prize for thye winner?
I'm going -6.5% y-o-y
Posted by braindeed @ 03:09 PM (2120 views) Add Comment
48 Comments
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1. devo said...
-90%
2. hpwatcher said...
+100,000%
(Hyperinflation)
3. mrflibble said...
Depends what you want to measure the price in. Sterling is looking less and less plausible as a store of wealth these days. Probably best to look towards Zimbabwe for the answer as we are treading the same path...
4. fallingbuzzard said...
Index discontinued, citing regulatory reasons.
5. braindeed said...
I feel a certain shying away,ladies (Halifax, Nationwide,£'s USD's CRC's...semantics) - who's got the spuds to predict?
6. devo said...
no shying away here, madam
-90%
7. braindeed said...
You can't be serious.....in 12 months?
8. mrflibble said...
That's some style you have there devo.
OK, if the country goes broke (IMF called in), -50%, but if the zombie is allowed to carry on lurching with base rates at 0.5%, +5%.
9. devo said...
housepricegentledecline.co.uk
nah, doesn't have the same ring to it
10. hpwatcher said...
UK is a zombie country.......
11. cynicalsoothsayer said...
-30% Just look at auction prices
12. braindeed said...
Mrf@8....
My last word on this thread:
+5% sounds a possible - I'm dissapointed you had to hedge your bet though.
Readers:The point of this sweepstake should be to have a punt based on your gut feeling - easy........come on someone will garner some real kudos at christmas (provided they have the manjigglies to play)
13. alan said...
@ Braindeed,
Thanks for the challenge. There are too many imponderables to forecast the whole year!
By the end of March, I think:
1. We will have another economic crisis (AAA ratings, Debt or Sterling falling).
2. Haliwide house prices down by -4%.
3. There will be a 5 week wait till the election (May 6th).
This is pure guesswork!
14. mrflibble said...
@12. The trouble is this is now hard to call given the election. Another example; Tories get in with a large majority, keep the base rate at 0.5% and gut the public sector. That is a lot of unemployed people trying to pay down a mortgages with zero income. If they simply let them burn (unlikely) then forced sales will happen and prices could well be -20%, but if they feed them brains then I'd still say +5%.
My gut feel right now is we are heading towards a Sterling crisis, rates will by forced up and prices forced down. The UK needed a proper crash when the rest of the world was having there's, by avoiding it then we have now put ourselves in a position of pain and cannot really recover. Houses are still way too expensive to suck in new blood without draining them completely dry at the first rate rise.
Browns seems to have created the perfect zombie economy that relies on printed money...
15. braindeed said...
13. alan said...Cluck cluck cluck
where are you Tetchie,Munchie, SuperT, flashy, JU S2r 666 Mat the twa......?
16. cat and canary said...
uummm...depends who's living in No. 10,
If Gordon Brown survives, I reckon you'll be able to pick up a nice semi-detached for a handful of turnips and a couple of bushels of wheat.
17. refusetobuy said...
-10%
using http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-average-house-price.php
89 crash dropped 30% over 2 years to the long term average, then went down another 10%
07 crash dropped 30% over 2 years to the long term average,
So history repeating itself.
No big crash because this country likes houses too much.
We don't really do nominal house price crashes in this country. I feel inflation is coming.
Get ready to spend that warchest you've saved, lots of volume on the market 3 months after rates start rising (which will be just after the election in 16 weeks). Look to put an offer in at the start of august and fix your mortgate rate for as long as possible. You'll still loose capital on the house, but you won't be shafted by the huge rate increase comming.
18. inbreda said...
-26.35%
19. braindeed said...
Mavis Riley @16 said ......I don't rightly know
There are, indeed, imponderables…….election results, global growth prospects, Iran – but Jeez, I’m talking a fun sweepstake based on what people think the total ball game is likely to produce.
Are the egos on this blog so fragile they can’t have an educated guess as to the cumulative effects on the HP index, given their own gut feelings as to the liable outcomes?
Have a risk-free punt, you pussies.
20. phdinbubbles said...
I'm going for a complex number: -10+5i% The real part is the completed transaction price and the imaginary part is the asking price, which the media will report.
21. tenyearstogetmymoneyback said...
I will predict the next five years (starting form the beginning of 2009)
2010 -5%
2011 -10%
2012 -15%
2013 -20%
2014 -25%
2015 -30%
Which is pretty much what happened between 1989 and 1995.
The only difference (so far) this time has been the lack of repossessions.
I reckon that during that time General Accident repossessed more houses
on the estate I lived on than have been sold there in the last couple of years
22. cat and canary said...
Oi braindead!!! ...I was actually making humour! Obviously my jokes are wasted! Mavis indeed! How rude! I dont really knowww
tis not fragile ego, ive been wrong more times than you know!!.....
But since your brought my mother into it!!! ..i re-iterate what i said on previous posts, that there will be no soft landing of house prices but a very steep correction, some 30% or more, beginning in the latter half of 2010.
Why a sharp correction? I believe in "real economic indicators" based on "grass-roots" data. I ignore "confidence surveys" "YoY" and "affordability" garbage.
More importantly are "real indicators", tax rises, the recent rise in part time "damage limitation" working patterns and the surge in petty theft and shoplifting.
23. little professor said...
Might be interesting to look back at our News Blog's predictions for 2008:
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2007/12/blog-whats-your-forecast-for-9207.php
Of the 'famous names', quiet guy went for -10%, p4ac -11%, paul and jack c -15%, sold out and wiltshire -20%, japanese uncle -25%.
The actual result was -7.9% over the course of 2008.
And now +1.1% over the course of 2009.
Wasn't much of a crash, was it? :(
24. 51ck-6-51x said...
Oh no.
I hate this...
Of course I think prices should go down
However I want to be right so here goes ...
0%
25. iguana said...
I am willing to stand by my original prediction of -69% from peak, but it may take more than next year.
26. refusetobuy said...
Love the complex number
27. brickormortis said...
It pains me to say but in sterling terms, only about 5%. Nationally, the south will survive and the midlands and north more towards 10% but only if interest rates are at 1.75% by July.
The UK are determined to maintain property prices probably because so many have such vested interest in maintaing them, not least, the economy itself and those presiding over it know this too well. And those with such positions have salaries to match and therefore property investments to match so have two fronts on which to defend them.
Finally, the people of the UK have learned NOTHING from this RECESSION which seems to me to be the easiest recession in history since its effect on most has been almost unnoticeable since the masses are protected at every step from their recklessness.
Ok, I feel sick again. Gotta go spew!
28. fallingbuzzard said...
I know that pain comes after recessions, not during them, so take it easy on that spewing!
29. flashman said...
-7%
30. waitingtobuy said...
_11%,but hoping for more
31. paul said...
That's a good point little professor, but in January 2009 I have to say that the 'nuclear option' of quantitative easing was still not even being seriously considered. Back then, printing money was considered the preserve of foreign dictators in hot countries.
Now it's the lynchpin UK's strategy forward economic strategy. In December 2008, if anyone had predicted that the UK government would start printing money to keep house prices high, we'd all have laughed. THAT'S why house prices didn't fall last year.
We've yet to see if the government continues to print more this year.
32. clockslinger said...
+1%
33. Open Minded said...
Down 3%. To anyone wishing a +10% fall - get a better job or rethink your expectations!
34. markj69 str05 said...
-5% 2010 (Interest rate 2% before Autumn, and increasing), and another -10% over 2011.
The new gov't will have a years grace/honey-mooning to shake things up, and allow the bottom to hit, that will allow a few years to instill confidence again.
Remember, all good things come to those that wait!
Happy 2010.
35. braindeed said...
Iguana, ten years,cat and the cannery....and THE OTHERS - no fudging, it's easy .....Jan to Dec 2010?
Flash - the clever money says your very close:-)
36. mander said...
I would mark 2010 - 10%, 2011 - 15% , 2012 -10% and 2013-2017 + or - 5% but inflation up expecting food and petrol to cost double in 2017.
37. markj69 str05 said...
I might just invest in Baked beans!
38. rumble said...
I'm in with -6%.
39. sold out said...
House prices for 2010, i believe will be -8%.
Wages will be frozen (with the exception of MP's)
By December 2010, petrol will be £1.50 a litre, £2 for a loaf of bread etc etc.
It seems to me that the whole uk economy has been sacrificed in a failed attempt to save the housing market. What a disaster.
Happy New Year everyone.
40. luckyjim said...
+6%
41. Andy_mn said...
-9%, based on my back-of-an-envelope sketch from early June 2009.
Back then, I predicted a 5% rise by the end of 2009 (not bad) then a fall of 15% to 20% by the end of 2011. -9% is on the way back down. I keep it posted by my desk. In June 2010, I plan to predict the lottery numbers for the next 18 months...
42. Growler said...
2010 it going to be -10%, 2011 -7-8%, and then I can see single digit plus and minus for a few years up to 2015.
43. growler said...
2010 will be -10%, 2011, -7 or 8% and then a few years of bumping along the bottom with +/- 1-2% to 2015 when - HOPEFULLY - we will have put in place plans to avoid yet another boom
44. techieman said...
never commented on this last year and wont this year. Until we see 2 consecutive month falls the bull move hasn't finished. Until we see the end of the bull move there can be no bearish forecast. You only eat an apple on bite at a time - ask Le Crunch. I cant see any reason to still go with peak to trough nominal of 40%, but how long that takes.... who knows.
In any case choosing a calendar timespan on which to base a forecast is arbitrary. Never tried and don't intent to start now!
45. braindeed said...
tetchie @44 said......never commented on this last year and wont this year. Until we see 2 consecutive month falls the bull move hasn't finished. Until we see the end of the bull move there can be no bearish forecast blah, blah,drone, drone,.....
Bet you're fun at parties.....let you hair down,man - have a punt based on your hunches- I won't tell anyone if you're way out
46. techieman said...
b/dead there has to be a basis on which to base your punt!! My whole life is spent "punting". Its pointless though if there is no basis for it - thats not a punt thats a lottery. No reason to go against what i have always said 40% peak to trough. That may be this year or it may be over a few years.
I dont go to parties - particularly not on new years eve. :-). I would wish you a HNY - but it would be very grudgingly!!
Must go now and meet with one of my non-existent friends!
47. braindeed said...
Awwwww.....someone give ol' tetchie a hug.
Go on - do the 'lottery', it's free, and 'IT COULD BE YOU'
HNY
48. Iguana said...
OK, as 30% has been nabbed twice already, I will go for -40%, hard hats needed !