Thursday, Jan 21, 2010
Party of opportunism spots opportunity
BBC: Tories back Obama's bank limit plans
How more Blairite can you get than being the Commander in Chief's poodle.
Posted by krustyatemyhamster @ 07:12 PM (1037 views) Add Comment
14 Comments
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1. icarus said...
Blairite. But will JP Morgan give Osborne a job after this?
2. krustyatemyhamster said...
You need to have had power and know how things work before JP Morgan come knocking on the door. To get there one might have to use a bit of anti-city rhetoric.
3. jack c said...
It shouldnt take too long for any such Obama plans to be well and truly watered down (1) The Dow's already down accordingly today with Banks leading the way (generally -5%) (2) Businesses and consumers will find they cant get funding - and the banks will subsequently be allowed to carry on more or less as before
4. tyrellcorporation said...
LOL, and Labour aren't opportunistic?
All successful politicians are opportunists - get real Krustos.
5. techieman said...
"I have said consistently that we should look at separating retail banking from activities like large scale propriety trading - and that this was best done internationally."
Right Georgy. So will Glass–Steagall be replaced by a "Cameron Osborne" law? its a vote winner!!!!!!
That may be true Jack, but by then the damage to the markets will have been done.... infact technically they looked done before, but i spose i would say that.... wouldnt i!
6. jack c said...
techieman - we might as well have Sharon and Ozzy Osbourne making policy on the hoof - I cant see the overall economic results being much worse in due course !
Do you see FTSE 100 descending below 5000 in near future?
Hope you are feeling better - picked up on last weeks threads that you had a touch of back problems.
7. doomwatch said...
I think Eton George would offer to clean my windows if he though it would get them elected.
What's wrong with this county. Does nobody remember the abject misery and poverty under
the last Landed Owners Poitical Wing ?
Would be interested to hear George's thoughts on Land Value Tax !
8. tyrellcorporation said...
I know Doomwatch, he went to Millfield School near Taunton and now feels very guilty as his prospects are so much better than they would be normally.
9. Crunchy said...
All policies are created by the shadow international banking cartel government and the UK just follows along.
There is no debate until an independent party breaks the stranglehold on the USSA, a powerhouse that is being slowly dismantled and disarmed in preparation for globalism. Dream on! UKIP or BNP are not big enough, it has to come from an ex-superpower.
10. krustyatemyhamster said...
TC
"LOL, and Labour aren't opportunistic?"
I didn't say they weren't. I agree with you - they're both self-serving opportunists.
Georgieboy might not have gone to Eton, but his background isn't dissimilar (for what it's worth):
Life
The eldest son and heir of Sir Peter Osborne, 17th Baronet (and co-founder of the fabric and wallpapers designers, Osborne & Little), Osborne was educated at the private Norland Place School in Holland Park, St Paul's and Magdalen College, Oxford, where he received a second class degree in Modern History. He was also editor of the university magazine, Isis. He is married to The Hon. Frances Osborne, née Howell, an author and elder daughter of former Conservative Cabinet Minister The Lord Howell). The couple have two children.[4]
Education
Osborne was educated at St Paul's School independent school[6] before going to Magdalen College in Oxford University. At Oxford he edited the university magazine Isis.[7]
Whilst at Oxford, Osborne was a member of the Bullingdon Club, a notorious Oxford University dining club, it was 'infamous' for riotous behaviour' and was open only to sons of aristocratic families and the super-rich.
I don't have a problem with his background; I do have a problem with the fact that his only experience outside of the Palace of Westminster is working as a data entry clerk and as a failed journalist before being offered his current position on the basis of being a member of the same drinking club as Dave.
Oh, and the fact that he read history. Now then, when was the last time we had an historian with limited numeracy skills as Chancellor?
11. techieman said...
hey Jack - thanks for the good wishes.
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2010/01/blog-shares-and-housing-to-fall-27228.php
15, 24 and 30 - 30 is a nice picture! oh and 7.
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2009/12/blog-for-hpwatcher-all-all-the-other-inflationists-27092.php
8.
Anyway - to answer your question, i am still short FTSE @ 5568 with no pain (half my normal size as it was off the top), and although i got out of some i am looking for 5200 as a conservative level. I actually added to this by shorting the S&Ps - which didnt go so well for a while but are now also firmly in the black. i averaged the short position on the S&Ps - you probably know what that means.
5200 has both trendline and general support, so would expect it to lose momentum once it gets around there. Then a bit of a pullback then another move lower then a more sensible retracement. Basically this move so far is "off the top" and i generally wouldn't be involved in it. I would (and will) wait for this more sensible retracement.
As for the Euro / $ i think shorts at 1.4570 down to 1.40 odd was good enough to cash some chips in. Lets not be greedy!
12. doomwatch said...
krustyatemyhamster , I suspect Georgie (2nd in History = Dim Fooker) has a lot to discuss (erm listen to orders)
from his Buller pal Nat Roffskinder.
13. techieman said...
Leading on from that i think this is an important juncture. I think we have now a 65% probability that a significant retracement top is in. That will go up a notch if the market moves more or less as i anticipate above. I would also say as of now, that its about a 55% chance that the March lows will be breached before the Jan high is. Thats a brave call to be honest (some would say stupid!) - i mean we are a couple of hundred away from the top of FTSE and a couple of thousand from the bottom - so i wouldnt blame anyone for being sceptical.
Anyway here is some extract from a blog that i have quoted before (and yes 1,000 dow ISNT a typo!)
- http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2010/01/elliott-wave-update-21-january.html#disqus_thread.
"[Update 5:30PM: I think any reader of my blog knows that I agree with Prechter on the overall wave count of less than 1000 DOW to come in years down the road. This "P2" was a massive corrective wave that eventually found its peak. We are saying, by charting a triple intermediate zigzag, that P2 is likely very much over. That means that you won't see the DOW above 11700 again for, perhaps, many decades. Its pretty much that simple really."
....."Technically, the indexes are seriously damaged and likely have more downside to go before our first solid oversold bounce wave [ii]. (Of course you skilled daytraders do this stuff all the time - play in hard markets). Indeed as it has yet to produce even a 5 wave structure at Minuette degree yet so that indicates its not done impulsing down. The indexes are certainly not extreme oversold by any means even on the hourly charts.
This daily SPX shows an RSI break and a trendline break. Selling has kicked in as the longish red candle on higher volume does not lie. The top is likely in for now. "
......"So yes, its a matter of counting wave upon wave structures assuming the P2 top is in. The structures build upon one another and so on. And no, there is no magic rebound rally taking the indexes to even higher highs coming in the Spring. This is "it", P2 top would be in. Thats the overall theory count. But like I said, we need that first solid 5 Minuette down wave structure to start setting firmer targets and channels. I am confident its coming."
and finally....."And the DOW also had a clean peak price from which to start a count from. With all the bearish moves the past few days, it has yet to show 5 waves down at a complete Minuette degree. A move lower tomorrow will count as a 5th wave, at minimum."
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So to sum up, it looks like the retracement is finished. However we would be more certain of that (of course nothing is 100% certain) if we had some more confirming market action over the next week or so. I hope that makes sense but he does have some pretty pictures to back up what he is saying. Technically there was a horrible close for the bulls and some more downside after hours. We need to see what happens tomorrow. Of course by tomorrows close some bears might have closed out and/or there may be a (partial) reversal of the last two days falls. Im betting against that but have looked dumb in the past .... so perhaps ill look stupid again!
14. jack c said...
techieman - thanks for the input and the external links - FTSE100 up just under one tenth of 1% (LOL) as I type. Today's close on Wall St could be interesting - I have just placed a small amount into the US market via a collective.