Friday, Jan 22, 2010
Full economic recovery once again only 6 months away (in the meantime house prices are on the up)
Citywire: Pound falls as weak retail sales throw doubt on UK growth prospects
Data this morning showed a paltry 0.3% increase in retail sales in the key December trading month, a full 1% less than market watchers had been expecting. That comes after a shock 0.3% fall in sales in November and is the weakest year-on-year growth for the crucial Christmas month since 1998. Most of the growth was in food retail showing that people are still reluctant to spend on non-essentials and are trading up on food instead.
Posted by jack c @ 04:14 PM (1511 views) Add Comment
16 Comments
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1. paul said...
... and on the MPC's lack of commitment to tackle soaring inflation ...
2. mystie010 said...
I can't afford luxuries because the interst I'm earning on my savings that used to pay for all those lovely items is no longer - instead it is going into supporting indebted homeowners who are paying off their debts instead of spending. The government should have supported me - I would have gone out and spent and supported the economy but now savers have no cash to spend and borrowers are just paying off their debts. What kind of numpties are in charge of this country?
3. yorkshireman said...
So, money has migrated to those retailers that remain on the high street. It would be interesting to see how the statistics have been gathered. Presumably, if there was only one retailer left on the high street, their sales figures would look amazing. I wonder what the real sales figures are and more importantly, how far the profit margins have been squeezed. It also seems that the people prefer to buy food than non-essentials. This kind of statement of the obvious, shows how detached from reality these analysts actually are.
4. little professor said...
Ouch. Weren't they telling us just a few weeks ago that there had been a bumper month for retail sales in December?
1% under market expectations is horrific. The again, market expectations seem to be unreasonably optimistic. See:
UK retail sales in surprise fall for last months retail sales, and
US retail sales see surprise fall for this months US retail sales.
When is the market going to realize that this recession is far from over yet? They seem perpetually surprised whenever the next gloomy piece of economic data comes out.
5. jack c said...
The food we are buying (which is an essential) is also getting more expensive by the week (saddo here does the weekly family shopping with the wife and counts the pennies)
6. jack c said...
LP - the big/tough decisions have been deferred until after the election - IMHO this recession has yet to fully take hold
7. mr g said...
Jack c @6 "IMHO this recession has yet to fully take hold"
Spot on, I would say that a majority of people have not felt the effects of recession as yet.
8. hpwatcher said...
When is the market going to realize that this recession is far from over yet?
Because if people realised how serious it was going to be, there would be absolute panic, leading to a breakdown in law and order.
I don't usually like to draw analogies - especially not with the holocaust - but the camp guards had a number of very good reasons to deceive the subsequent victims into thinking that everything was going to be okay.
9. enuii said...
Just wait and see how the package holiday companies and airlines fair over the next 6 months, talking amongst friends and acquaintances I am amazed how many are intending to forego their annual jaunt to the med this year just to keep their finances on an even keel.
Like jack says the recession has yet to take hold, all we have observed so far is the warm up act!
With regard to food sales on the high street it is cheaper to eat in than eat out, so keep your eyes peeled on how well your local eateries are doing as I am sure many will go under during the slack period from now to easter.
10. rumble said...
33. flashman said...
C&C: When I say "gearing up big time and there is genuine excitement" it is a statement of fact. I was talking about my customers and the more they gear up the more they request our services. We have more business than we can handle. Some might (erroneously) say that my customers are not representative but the OECD report says otherwise. There is a very real economy in this country that beavers away regardless of all the HPC talk about ponzi schemes and debt fueled whatnots.
Preliminary data from October and November shows that we have already exited the recession. You will not be able to find a single economist who is not absolutely certain that the GDP figures for the current quarter will be positive. Even manufacturing and retail have surged in the last 6 weeks. The OECD and the IMF have both been surprised by the quicker than expected recovery and are both revising their forecasts. Several countries have started to increase their interest rates which is a further sign of recovery.
My opinions are are based on hard data (obviously we have better access to fresh data than most). The press will catch up in a few weeks.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009 10:50PM
11. estrader said...
@9 enuii "I am amazed how many are intending to forego their annual jaunt to the med this year just to keep their finances on an even keel."
A few years ago they would have borrowed the money using the equity in their 'prop-uh-ee', just like the ads encouraged them to do...and look where we are now.
12. jonny parker said...
Currently browsing me middle class holidays thinking I aint paying that! Looks like two weeks exploring Kent Coast!
13. waitingtobuy said...
Hpwatcher, brilliant !!
14. Enoughalready said...
All my friends at work (Local Gov) are looking at their 2nd holiday this year! (Yes, already!)
Until it affects the Public Sector, it ain't a recession.
15. dill said...
hpcwatcher @ 8
That's a very dark analogy. But insidiously true!
16. devo said...
8. hpwatcher
good analogy