Tuesday, Jan 26, 2010
According to the political rumour mill, a february election might be announced ... tomorrow
Telegraph: Britain at risk of plunging back into recession
I know I hardly believe it myself but apparently ...
Posted by paul @ 11:33 PM (1580 views) Add Comment
11 Comments
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1. sneaker said...
Forgive me for being stupid, but isn't 0.1% growth statistically little different from zero or negative growth? Are the figures not at risk of being fudged just before an election, and if all the fudging can achieve is 0.1% growth, should we not be enormously cynical?
And even if the number is right, given the enormous amount of GDP lost, is 0.1% growth anything to celebrate at all?
This is not a comment borne of negativity. It is one borne of exasperation at the continuingly poor quality of public reporting and debate of economic statistics.
2. dead spider said...
"Families were warned that interest rates were now unlikely to rise in the coming months, which means their savings will suffer."
That's the funniest facking comment I've ever heard :-))
Families / Savings !!
Lol
3. markj69 str05 said...
It makes me wonder how much it cost to get the figue into the +ve zone. A slight massaging of the figures perhaps, or am I being a little too cynical?
Yes 0.1 is effectively zero. And if you remove the QE and other influences, (scrapage scheme for one), then it sure would be negative still. There's no way BOE, gov't or Financial sector would look good (Not that they do anyway), if the figure was zero or below, after the efforts taken to try and help the economy. It does make you wonder what on earth they are thinking. What now? Retract QE and risk recession re-entry. IR's won't help this year either.
And regarding a Feb' GE. They'll have some 'Cahooners' after this meagre result. But, it might tell you something about what they think the next quarter will be like!
'Call it now Gordon, before they realise it's all a facade!'
4. freemanphil said...
I know that I would, but remember that both parties work for the banks. The banks always want austerity after looting a country to guarantee them interest payments, so it will suit them to see Conservatives in power. Ireland and Greece have gone the austerity route to avoid default to the banks, after bailing out ours, why would "our" government choose more socialism at the expense of the banks? The main purpose of socialism is afterall to take control of the people's money so that it can be easily handed over to the bankers. That is what we see time and again throughout the third world. Many agencies have for example been consolidating their budgets, in my opinion, in preparation for them being dismantled, then, the real beast of big government rears its head, and the Orwellian boot stamps on the human face forever.
5. rumble said...
0.1% before an election - I can't believe anyone has bothered acknowledging it.
Freeman, that last sentence needs fleshing out.
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8. Elizabeth said...
Hmm, complaining about the prospect of low interest rates for savers and the possibility of house prices going down at the same time. What do they want? - to have separate interest rates for savings (high) and on mortgages (low) for torygraph readers, so they can all be rich?
9. Pedro said...
Why is anybody at all surprised by this - I am still searching for any reasons why the UK should return to real non inflationary growth.The natural dynamics of any business cycle will dictate that the rate of decline will eventually slow down, level off and pick up but absolutely nothing has changed in the real (non financial) economy - all that we have had is a massive fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy.
Where is the growth going to come from to even get annual gdp back to where it was pre-recession (sorry-international economic downturn - nothing to do with us really!). In fact ,the sheer size of the public deficit (the real deficit - including pfi, unfunded final salary pensions etc), private and corporate debt means that even if the basics where in place for a return to growth, it would be severely hampered.
Where is the realism (politicians and media) that its going to be (at best) a VERY long, painful readjustment to an era of low growth and falling real disposable incomes. La la land or what. I also happen to catch some idiot economic commentator on BBCbusiness news last night stating that although the stats were truly dreadful, the one bright spot was that the housing market was "recovering" which was going to give the consumer confidence to go out and borrow/spend. I felt like slitting my throat in desperation!
10. Peakoil said...
This isn't even the FIRM figure - this is a figure that can be amended up or down by the office of national statistics next month - in the OFFICIAL figure. This is the ESTIMATED figure from the ONS. Which way do YOU think it will be amended!???
11. nomad said...
What 0.1% means, together with the ending of 15% VAT, scrappage schemes and, maybe, quantitative easing together with upward pressure on IR, is that the economic news for the Jan/Feb/Mar qtr, due towards end of April, will not be good - we've had some unhelpful weather as well. And this must effect GBs thinking on the GE date. March must be worth a healthy bet, but if it is going to be February then we are in more doodoo than even we think.
That's quite a convoluted first sentence, sorry I must practice more.