Sunday, Jan 10, 2010
A New Depression
The Telegraph: America slides deeper into depression as Wall Street revels
Defaults and repossessions have been running at over 300,000 a month since February. One million American families lost their homes in the fourth quarter. Moody's Economy.com expects another 2.4m homes to go this year. Taken together, this looks awfully like Steinbeck's Grapes of Wrath.
The stock market has become a lagging indicator. Tear up the textbooks.
Posted by devo @ 09:36 PM (1486 views) Add Comment
4 Comments
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1. little professor said...
Ouch - this is one of the most damning critiques of the recovereh yet. Well worth a read for any wavering bears.
2. voiceofreason said...
Read this website http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/ and they say the exact opposite.
"Stock Market Uptrend Remains Intact According to Leading Economic Indicators" and "Why Deflation is Not Ahead"
"CONCLUSION
John Exter’s theory of inevitable falling asset prices as the trigger that creates widespread price deflation does not make sense in a world of central banking and massive government deficits. As long as the money supply does not shrink, there will be no mass deflation, let alone hyperdeflation.
The money supply will not shrink in any country unless the government and the central bank jointly pull back and refuse to bail out the banks, either by redefining what constitutes solvency or by creating more fiat money.
Keep your eye on the money statistics. The rest is irrelevant. "
Who is right ?
3. fallingbuzzard said...
No-one really knows. They're all trying to apply these monetarist and Keynesian theories to economies, Keynes when it suits for the short term and monetarist when it suits for the long term, but the central banks havn't really got a clue as to whether or not any of the theories work or where the economies would be without interventions. Money supply is clearly crucial for engineering inflation but the central banks do not actually know which levers to pull, if there are any levers that they can pull at all, to get money supply up. My bet is still that the West will be stuck in threat of deflation for many years.
4. novice pete said...
sorry if this is a repost, but well worth a watch
Documentary on the 1929 crash, some may feel it has no relevance to the current situation.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7233622324068640582&ei=mh_jSraFH42a2wLr4oCyCg&q=the+crash+of+1929#