Tuesday, Dec 15, 2009
I'll believe it when I see it
Telegraph: Moody’s warns of 'social unrest’ as sovereign debt spirals
Britain and other countries with fast-rising government debts must steel themselves for a year in which “social and political cohesiveness” is tested, Moody’s warned. In a sombre report on the outlook for next year, the credit rating agency raised the prospect that future tax rises and spending cuts could trigger social unrest in a range of countries from the developing to the developed world. Even if countries reached agreement on the depth of the cuts necessary to their budgets, they could face difficulties in carrying out the cuts. The report, which comes amid growing worries about Britain’s credit rating, said: "In those countries whose debt has become unaffordable, the need to rein in deficits will test social cohesiveness." Greece has suffered riots over the past year.
17 Comments
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1. drewster said...
I'll believe it when I see it. So far there has been strikingly little direct action anywhere. A handful of angry Greek protesters aren't disrupting the rest of the country much. I don't see "social unrest" bringing down governments (or other powers e.g. landowners) in any western country, including the UK, in the foreseeable future. Things would have to get a lot worse before any real change happens.
That's not to say there won't be localised trouble in some poorer areas; but it seems unlikely to have any real effect on the country as a whole.
2. Cheekie Charlie said...
"I'll believe it when I see it."
Soon to happen in Greece. Lets also wait and see whether UK Plc. can get 200Bn + loans this year and I am afraid to say QE will not be tolerated by Global markets for much longer. I think 2010 could be the next phase of the crises.
3. Fallingbuzzard said...
I think they are they saying that tax rises and spending cuts won't be achieved, which is a ratings cut in all but changing the letters. I can see the UK having very risky debt yet still not losing its magical credit rating. You can already see the distortion in the market for default. In fact, there is perceived to be more chance of the UK defaulting inside 5 years than there is of Pilkington Glass defaulting!
4. charlie brooker said...
Lets have a riot - after Eastenders.
5. crunchy said...
PEOPLE GETTING ANGRY. PEOPLE SEEING MORE CLEARLY.
Just wait to see what happens when the designer rug is swiftly pulled. Will they still be standing?
I hope it's a wake up call, which is long overdue for 'everyone.' : )
6. mark wadsworth said...
What's "cohesiveness"? Is that maybe a bit like "cohesion"?
As to "unrest", it depends what you cut. If, in the UK, we kept all the nurses, doctors, coppers, teachers, dustbin men, social workers, coppers etc, of which there are about two million (plus, say, another million back up staff) and just sacked five million quangista, pen pushers and meddlers, what's the worst that can happen?
How well would we manage without five-a-day-advisors, race relations industry, street football co-ordinators and climate change quangos? Pretty well, is my guess.
7. wdbeast said...
I think we will see a big return to "industrial action" or strikes over the coming year. I think the public sector unions will become very militant as will the transport and the energy sectors.
It all depends on how the government reacts to the unions militancy as to whether we get "social unrest"
Thatcher would have been an interesting PM to have going into this!
8. crunchy said...
Silly 'old' gold crunchy!
9. wiltshire said...
Sadly, there doesn't seem to be a lot of social cohesion in this country anyway. Since about the mid-80s this country has turned into a real 'I'm alright Jack' society.
I'm sure there will be unrest and it will probably be swept under the carpet as another example of how feral our youth have become. I bet the government already have legislation drafted to 'combat' the problem which will, of course, further erode all our civil liberties.
10. icarus said...
There's nothing but generalisation in this report (at least as reported here), so if we are to take it seriously we need to believe in Moody's as an authority. Meanwhile, back in the bank vaults, their AAA-rated bonds are withering.
11. crunchy said...
8. icarus, You have had a re wax. lol, Good man!
12. mr g said...
MW@4 I'm delighted to see that you have joined my campaign against street football co-ordinators, flatulence fighting facilitators are the next target.
With regards to the article, you can read the script already:
Labour gets trounced at the polls, the Tories try to cut the public sector down to reasonable size and the unions assisted by Labour politicians will have the country held to ransom by strikes in no time. Lawful protests will be highjacked by the SWP and other far left groups and you will have the social unrest.
13. alan said...
I think most of the population will be watching X Factor. In "The Running Man" the glitzy TV show takes the people's mind off the lack of poor food and conditions. Maybe some of our politicians have watched the film?
Boiled frogs come to mind.
14. crunchy said...
4. You re-bel-ist, you. Your quangista rap is improving dog. It would also cut out fraud, so prevalent in these circles of wasted charity.
15. icarus said...
crunchy 12. Is that a Times crossword clue? How many letters?
16. crunchy said...
13. There are lots of answers but here's just one _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Clue- The final turning point of the Nixon scandal.
17. doom&gloom said...
The proletariat are generally fat, lazy and kept occupied in non-productive jobs & with a constant stream of unedifying popular 'culture' (our modern equivalent of the Roman games). Once the non-productive jobs are no longer sustainable, and the proles have a lot of time on their hands & no money: will they remain content with Jordan, the jungle & the x-factor; or will the social divisions come to the fore, with rioting on the streets?
Luckily we HPC visitors are a select breed who can see some way into the future and make (escape) plans accordingly...