Monday, Nov 09, 2009
Savills predict 27% increase in house prices over five years.
The Economic Voice: Savills predict 27% increase in house prices over five years.
As has been reported in the press, buyers are outnumbering sellers five to one which may be creating a mini bubble after the deflation of the major bubble that reached its peak in 2007.
Posted by titaniccaptain @ 02:10 PM (1860 views) Add Comment
22 Comments
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1. tyrellcorporation said...
They're probably right...
The next bubble is already being inflated folks and it looks like the low was indeed February 2009.
We all missed it! DOH!
2. happy mondays said...
Possibly time to pack my bags & family & do a lord lucan or Regi perrin..
3. smugdog said...
Music to my ears. Although I do feel sorry for those who have listened to the so called experts and will now be so frustrated.
4. Anne_uumellmahaye said...
Why do estate agents constantly bleat on about HIP?- if I were an estate agent, I would want to sell 10 houses now instead of 10 over valued and sitting on my books for the foreseeable........
5. crunchy said...
Cap and Trade the bubbel that will not pop.
6. tyrellcorporation said...
Thanks Smugdog, and best of luck.
7. Neil B said...
@ smugdog: How can this possibly be music to anyones ears other than someone with a large buy-to-let portfolio? The market is dead. Tehre are no sales. House prices rises will only shrink the market further plunging the UK into a deeper recession...Though you wouldnt care about would you as you arent British.
8. jackas said...
I wonder what savill's prediction is for precious metals and soft commodities over the next 5 years?
It seems like if the masses really want something, they get it.
And they will.
9. Anne_uumellmahaye said...
Savills predict 27% increase in house prices over five years-...................why?
10. brownsters_billions said...
We all know that things are going to take a turn south again, before going north again, then south, and finally North for an extended time before the next pop.
If you're an investor, timing is cruical. If you want a place to live, then I don't think it really matters when you buy, as long as you can afford the mortgate (along with increases in interest rates) and have some money set aside for any tough times.
Plus, in 5 years, it's probably not unlikely that houses will be + where they are now, at least nominally.
11. will said...
Buyers do not out number sellers 5 to 1 . If they did then all of the unsold houses in my area wouldn't need to be advertised.
I suspect the real data is that there are 5 registered buyers to each home advertised. I am one of them but haven't made an offer yet.
Savills also handle the top end of the market and should not be relied upon to forecast the UK as a whole.
12. sybil13 said...
Given that this is the jobless / moneyless/ QE / life support recovery and that nearly 2/3rds of lending pre-crash and post 2001 came from the RMBS market it is hard to see how property prices will increase 27% in the next 5 years when so many could only afford them pre crash with 125%LTV and with interest only mortgages. As the press have been saying since the start of the year with 20% off peak property was more affordable than it had been in 6 years but still not affordable it would seem with sensible lending backed up by actual money in the bank. So highly unlikely property will increase 27% in the next 5 years when Rightmove themselves have said: "Finance greases the wheels of the property market, and it is anybody’s guess when we might see the necessary level of competitive funding return. Frustrated homehunters should note the expected ten year timetable to wind up Lehman Brothers, giving a clear indication of the time required to rebuild the banking system.”
13. cat and canary said...
..if house prices continue rising then i'll eat Krusties hat!
C&C, 9/11/09
14. crunchy said...
7.
The last group on the wavy gravy train to a tad more freedom from uniformed trespassers, doors closing, mind the gap please.
Missed it? Brrrr Brrrrr I'm ringing about your rent arrears, shall we deduct it from your wages at source?
Nite, nite! -Keep em crunchified and pacfied brownster.
15. phdinbubbles said...
The first house to be sold in my street (in leicester) since 2007 appeared on the LR (sold end of august) at 20% below peak & 5% below asking price, after having sold stc up for several months. That's not what I'd call a new bubble. When I see several houses sell in a single year at higher prices I'll believe there's a 'recovery', until then I'll view it for what it is; a temporary price rise based on ridiculously low volumes against a backdrop of widespread sentiment that believes prices will magically rise so it's worth holding off selling for a while (enabled also by low base rates for those that took out their mortgages pre-crunch) or throwing all you can find at a purchase.
This 'crash' was always going to take many years, and without significant wage inflation (although it might happen, you never know), I would have thought that the probability of nominal prices being lower in 5 years is quite high.
16. tenant super said...
I suspect that the nominal bottom may have been earlier this year. I think there will be further falls but prices unlikely to fall off the metaphorical cliff. But the real bottom will be some time in 2011 as inflation erodes the value of houses. I can't see a 27% increase in 5 years for the reasons given by Sybil unless the increased inflation due to QE/ sterling devaluation is accompanied by a wage spiral. I am not sure many employers could afford this. If there is no wage spiral and yet you're lucky enough to get a pay rise that's linked to RPI, your wages should start to catch up with house prices. My salary is linked to RPI (but that is not contractual) but I work for a charity which holds a lot of investments which are currently giving us terrible returns. Unless interest rates rise, then I wonder whether our trustees can approve an RPI-linked rise if RPI goes through the roof.
17. estrader said...
Has anybody here bought or sold a property based directly on the predictions made by Savills?
Does anybody here know anybody that has bought or sold a property based directly on the predictions made by Savills?
18. hpwatcher said...
Talking up the market to generate sales...........they have already reached the tipping point. Simply can't go higher, unless of course, banks start throwing more money around.
19. wiltshire said...
The Economic Republic Of London.
Rightmove currently have a total of 5 houses available in Northern Ireland at a total value of £1m (it's actually 7 houses and £1.5m if you include the two derelict barns available). Obviously the mark-up on one newly decorated house in Chelsea could far outstrip that sum.
I'll wait and see.
20. Mulluck Wells said...
Every predicition made by Savills has been incorrect
Please bear that in mind reading their latest report and predictions
21. greenshootsandleaves said...
There is one property on RM whose status changed from 'available' to 'sold stc' in August, reverted to 'available' soon afterwards, was again 'sold stc' a few weeks later and is now 'available' again. As it says on the cash register: 'No Sale'.
Is there actually a guarantee that the national statistics are in no way influenced by 'transactions' of this type?
22. cynicalsoothsayer said...
Yawn.