Wednesday, Oct 14, 2009
The Jobless Recovereh is Good For The Markets
BBC News: Dow Jones breaks through 10,000
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has topped the 10,000 mark for the first time in a year.
World markets were boosted by the news that US bank JP Morgan Chase reported a better-than-expected profit in the July-to-September quarter.
The Dow closed 144.8 points higher at 10,015.86 - its highest level since October 2008.
Posted by fubar @ 10:32 PM (833 views) Add Comment
12 Comments
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1. jackas said...
If the Dow continues the pace it has set over the last 7 months it will hit a million before the end of 2015.
Can we turn the spigots off yet?
2. little professor said...
Dow is up 52% since March this year.
This would have been seen as grossly abnormal even in the boom years, but in the midst of the worst recession in living memory, it is completely nonsensical. The only rationale for it is the flood of money from QE. This is the biggest bull trap ever.
3. little professor said...
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chdet=1255560978468&chddm=60344&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=INDEXDJX:.DJI&ntsp=0
4. little professor said...
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chdet=1255560978468&chddm=60344&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=INDEXDJX:.DJI&ntsp=0
5. fallingbuzzard said...
Simple rationale. No-one wants to hold cash or provide consumer debt. Can't wait till they send in the matador although I'm still riding the wave myself. I'm expecting a global event, probably but not necessarily a terrorist attack or war, to trigger a collapse and even without that the fear indices are already rising in Asia. Interesting few months coming.
6. little professor said...
Also today:
Oil price reaches 2009 high
7. uncle tom said...
There is some precedent for what we are seeing from the mid seventies, when stocks rallied strongly despite the economy going down the sink..
..also, there is a very wise adage that is worth remembering:
"investment bubbles do not burst when sane rational people think they should. They burst when sane rational people no longer think there is a bubble"
The markets do look to be heading toward a correction..
..but when?
8. crunchy said...
Cut your loses and let your winners run.
Agree with 5. fallingbuzzard.
9. taffee said...
stocks rallied in the 70's after hitting rock bottom in 1974 on 7 x earnings and paying 16-18% dividend,however,it then fell for 7 years
sp500 'bottomed' on 12.5 x earnings paying just over 4% dividend..now around 2%
10. techieman said...
Taffee exactly right, this is a suck in plain and simple that is getting to the stage where it IS a bigger move than most people expect.( i have said many times that it will PROBABLY (nobody KNOWS) go higher than most people think and will suck in alot of bears.
The Dow has broken 10,000 which as for some commentators a bear rally target. [http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2009/10/14/Dow-10000-Who-Knew-Good-question-Heres-the-answer.aspx? [although there is a it of poetic licence there]
How overbought will it end up being... are we at the top now? So I THINK we are at or very near (+100 to +150 points) the top, but will need some more confirmation (a fall and failure to break the highs before another fall) before going short.
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2009/10/blog-some-weakness-with-the-nationwide-index-that-helps-explain-the-current-boom-25681.php - number 9
Also "Jack - Re FTSE -i have said earlier that support was at 5050 on one of these threads - to either b/weter or bystander. Then we go up from there and probably just eclipse the prior high since March, and that end the bear squeeze. As i said personally i will be looking to short once i see some confirmations of a downmove. If i dont see it i wont get in. In any case i see a reasonable size downmove after that high.-------n. 25 sept 30th
11. taffee said...
I have 10350 max on dow and 5500 max on ftse,but these may not be met,just like 3000 for ftse wasn't so anyone with a brain should be out on the basis its okay to sell too soon.
nasdaq is now at levels in 2006,so if you thought that 2003-2007 should never have happened in hindsight then we could easily crash imo
nasdaq leads imo
12. techieman said...
absolutely agree tafee - you might lose a fortune waiting for the last penny of a move, a penny is not worth a fortune. As for the low at the time i thought 3000 was a bit pessimistic. Having said that who knows before the bear is over that might look like a good level to sell.