Saturday, Sep 12, 2009
Rare scrap of bear food
This is Money: Property to fall as 'irrational' rally ends
House prices will fall 7% in 2010 once the current 'unsustainable' revival ends, a leading property consultancy has forecast.
The bounce in the market, that has seen prices rise by 8.4% since February, will fall away towards the end of the year, says James Thomas, head of the residential department at Jones Lang LaSalle.
The 'seemingly irrational' rise in prices is likely to prove only temporary, according to Thomas, who said a double-dip W-shaped outlook for the market is likely.
'While the recent improvement in the market is encouraging, it is impossible to ignore the short-term risks posed to the UK residential sector by rising unemployment and poor credit availability.
'We anticipate the current market revival is unsustainable and predict a further contraction in prices during 2009'
3 Comments
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1. devo said...
Nice one, lp.
These are the figures to watch...
housing transactions have now doubled since January 2009 from a low of 27,200. However, this figure still represents a decline of 48% from the long run average of 105,270 property sales per month, over the seven-year period 2001 to 2007.
2. denzil said...
You are right LP and this indeed a rare scrap of bear food. Seems the general public believe house prices have stabilised, which is very significant. Considering how bad the ecomony has been over the last couple of years I'm amazed how little house prices have actually fallen thus far. An unsold house around my way is as rare as hens teeth and until that changes house prices simply will not fall.
3. vindicated said...
'W' shaped recovery? How about 'WWWWWWW' shaped?