Saturday, Sep 05, 2009
If the cap fits wear it....
"original article"... But which is which?: Dumb & Dumber
I have to go out for most of today (otherwise i would have waited for a bullish article - stock market jumps for instance?) - but i thought (because im in that kind of mood) I would have some fun with KP and Smiling. Dont take it too seriously guys!!! Actually im a bit confused... can you kp in particular help me out?
Posted by techieman @ 08:49 AM (835 views) Add Comment
8 Comments
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1. techieman said...
Kp here is an area of my confusion. Wasnt it you who said you were making £60k on 4 auction properties that you had bought?
Also didnt you say something about blackpool?
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2009/09/blog-blackpool-house-price-boom-25123.php - "Wow, 5.3% rise not bad!! Looks like my investment is in the money already."
yep ok but hang on a minute yesterday (and please send an email to the mods so you can post in real time) didnt you say this:
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2009/09/blog-the-property-market-is-improving-steadily-but-trading-up-is-proving-tricky-for-many-buyers-25154.php
5. ...... I personally do not own a house ............nor i am an estate agent but i just wanted to see the feedback whenever i say something contrary to house price crash.
Eh? Please help!!!
2. techieman said...
to put it a bit more simply how can you have bought properites at acution and then not "own a house"?
Its ok i get it you bought them here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GX-pVhTZg0U
3. techieman said...
Then at 15 on that same thread you have a go at poor little old me... you big bully you!!! I hope it makes you feel better
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2009/09/blog-the-property-market-is-improving-steadily-but-trading-up-is-proving-tricky-for-many-buyers-25154.php
I thought about not replying but its just too funny so in the next post i will.
4. paul said...
kp is definitely an estate agent. Look at the evidence:
1. Not very bright.
2. In utter denial about house prices going down.
3. Lots of spare time, especially during the week.
5. techieman said...
so on to remarks at 15.
"techieman, you are a genius!!" -Good start!!
Then it all gets a bit fragmented and full of pique - but in any case its good that you have managed to string a few words together rather than a normal "light the touch paper and run" wind up approach - as characterised by Mr. Dumb or is that Mr. Dumber?
"you seem to think you know everything, all i have seen you on each post is slating of anyone who says anything against house price crash without applying a bit of "intellect"."
Not at all - the reason you raised my hackles originally is all this ya boo sucks nonsense. "I have made x amount buying property and what have you saddos done?" - that kind of thing. Also you bring nothing to the table. If you genuinely think that (that i only slate anyone who says anything against [a] HPC) then you have not read that many posts and would do well to widen your experience and read a few more.
"I def. know you have a vested interest in property crash. In fact most of you have vested interests in property crash, but i have to say a few actually have some valid points that make good and real economic sense."
Yes you are correct i do have a VI in HPC (which i have stated on here a few times), you are probably right we all do - but unlike most EAs that doesn't cloud my judgement. I was actually bullish here last year saying i thought there would very likely be a DCB. And as i have said recently the challenge is when will that DCB end. Incidentially my premise has always been that toward the end of the DCB, there will likely be some bulls that come onto this site - which is a contrarian indicator by the way. Bull counter-trend moves in bear markets are often accompanied by change in sentiment before they revert to the bear side - which is why i have remarked on the change in sentiment of 66% bears in January and 77% bulls now - whether we need a higher bullish reading is an imponderable. When you have a TA background you actually look for such things.
However shouldn't we as a society have an interest in a HPC? - how else can people leaving school / university afford a decent place to live. My mantra is the average size property should be affordable for the average family, without mortgaging your life away. Having said that that is not what we are discussing is it? We are discussing If there is / will be a HPC, how long it will take and how much it will go down.
You could be right - we may have seen the bottom already, no-one really knows but for me thats what makes it interesting. I do think we will see another down move. Am i sure? nope. Why do i think that? Well the reasoning has been put on here on many posts if you want to look.
"On the Bovis case, you need to examine your brain a bit and see what their market cap is first. Hang on, you probably do not know what the term "market cap" means."
Ouch!!! Need to examine my brain? How would i do that? "Operation" is a game - it cant be done in real life!!
Well since i have been a TA for approx 20 years and have traded on LIFFE - Interest rate and stock exchange futures and LSE - traded options, i think you really dont have to worry on what i know or don't know about share dealing that score.
"Anyways once you ve added a brain cell, i will tell you that it represents the valuation of the company's equity. The market cap of Bovis is 600 million, so to raise 60 million through equity is pretty big deal for them(10%)."
The market cap of Bovis - and the other Housebuilders is quite a lot less than it was, so i wonder why you put faith in them raising £60m is a good thing. Their judgement hasn't been great has it? I was allding to the fact that they might end up using this money e.g. for operating expenses rather than buying land - we shall see - i concede i might stand corrected on that one.. i.e. they might use it for what they are saying they are going to use it.
"Still do not understand your point about people in the city earning more than 60 million? What has bovis got to do with them?"
Nothing the point is that £60m is small potatoes in the scheme of things. Infact i would typically trade more than that nominal in a day. [actually thats a bit of an unfair comparison but im in that sort of mood].
" With 60 million, you could buy decent acres with the valuation of the land 20% down from the peak (in some areas by 40%)."
could you ? how much "decent acres"? Please tell? again i suppose you could buy most of fantasy island but if we are talking about the UK i think the answer is not very much at all. Come on lets see some numbers, you have made a point so back it up. And please dont use some peat bog in Cleethorpes as an example.
" They think the valuations are becoming more real and it is a good entry point back in the market to build houses once again. " As i said I don't understand why you place so much faith in these guys. Look at Taylor Wimpey - they basically over-leveraged by buying a large homebuilder with debt right at the top of the market. Look at lloyds in the last "crash" they bought up loads of estate agencies. If you asked any estate agent at the peak they would have said reduced price rises but DEFINITELY no crash!!
"BTW, there is a book on amazon called "economics for dummies". may be you should buy one?" - Thanks but dont think there is much in my library for that one. A bit like saying once you have bought "catch 22" you should buy a "janet and John" book.
As i said if you come back i may not be able to respond because im out most of the day, maybe i should spend it examining my brain?
So on reflection i think you are the "dumber" character. Why is smiling dumb? Because of the rubbish he spouted on the Wilson thread (amongst others), and because he is full of banal comments that he doesn't then discuss.
I really dont understand if you dont own a home why you seem to want to cheer prices on.... then again it takes all sorts.
see ya "id".
6. wdbeast said...
techieman/paul - I think kp may well be a bored regular poster here that is just using a pseudonym for mischievous postings.
Oh my god, does that make me a conspiraloon?
7. techieman said...
wdbeast - there was a kp before - not sure its one and the same. The only thing that annoys me really is we cant have a "live" discussion. I am all for someone that supports their view, bullish or bearish, and actually wouldnt take the p1ss if they had something sensible to say. At the end of the day it takes two opinions to make a market.
Perhaps i am being a bit childish with the dumb and dumber post here, but these constant postings by smiling in particular without any engagement thereafter were getting annoying, as they left no room for other more relevant (bullish or bearish) posts.
The bovis post (which they both made) was a case in point.
8. mrflibble said...
@5. techieman
"However shouldn't we as a society have an interest in a HPC? - how else can people leaving school / university afford a decent place to live. My mantra is the average size property should be affordable for the average family, without mortgaging your life away. Having said that that is not what we are discussing is it? We are discussing If there is / will be a HPC, how long it will take and how much it will go down."
I think we are discussing a bit or both, or at least we should be, but lets face it here, this hpc is doing a lot of damage. There are a lot of innocent victims out there who thought they were buying a home and didn't realise they were buying into a pyramid scheme that was going to collapse around them, taking out a big chuck of their yet to be earned wealth. Allowing housing to become an investment tool was a big mistake, but allowing the greed of people to drive prices astronomically high was an even bigger mistake. The real tragedy here is we won't learn from this, just like we didn't learn from the other crashes, no real legislation or taxes will be introduced to cool this market down or enforce sensible price growth for the future.
I agree with you on the average wage buying the average house, but I'd go further and say it should be the average single wage. House prices at the minute are presenting our younger generation with a lifetime of slavery just to afford a roof over their heads, be this rented or bought. This isn't the society I want to grow old in and neither do I want to have to help my children buy a house. If a person goes to work, pays his/her taxes and saves some money then they should be able to buy themselves their own home for a reasonable sum of money.