Thursday, Sep 10, 2009
Halifax: +0.8% for August
Halifax: Halifax: +0.8% for August
"The average UK house price rose by 0.8% in August. This was the second successive monthly increase and the fourth in the first eight months of 2009. Overall, house prices nationally are very similar to the level at the end of last year.
Demand for housing has increased since the start of the year due to better affordability and low interest rates. This, together with low levels of property available for sale, has boosted house prices over the last few months."
Posted by phdinbubbles @ 09:20 AM (2807 views) Add Comment
58 Comments
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1. mrflibble said...
2. hpwatcher said...
I would have expected more, given the time of year.....
3. phdinbubbles said...
Another month of having to put up with the village idiots looking smug.
4. waitingfor hpc said...
and when prinited money stops, and IR's return to normal?
5. paul said...
It's hardly a large increase. What with us being in recovery and house prices having bottomed out etc. etc.
6. jack c said...
The current volumes are less than 50% of those in 2007 - it is fairly commonly accepted that there will always be a demand for "quality homes" and I'm guessing that those properties being sold are predominantly family homes. There must be some market segmentation here eg the price on a desirable 3 bed semi/4 bed detached will surely hold up significantly better than an identikit appartment in say Leeds/Manchester/Newcastle/B'ham etc...
I also know that there have been large outflows of cash at NS&I and they have been asking their customers what they intend doing with the withdrawls - approx 80% of respondents stated they were assisting their immediate family with a property purchase.
I'm still of the opinion that once the QE/cash buyer/spring bounce etc... subsides then the downward trend will resume
7. braindeed said...
There can be no doubt that the blig slide has been halted, at least temporarily - the bulls may be right, despite the majority desire in this blog.
....just saying
8. jack c said...
braindeed - the figures suggest the slide has been halted and I cant disagree, however greenbay (remember him) stated that the Gov would step in and do all they could to prop up the market - and they have !! and everyone will be paying for it in the next 20+ years so it's not really that surprising that the slide has been arrested. Looking slightly longer term however prices cant be supported forever hence the slide (IMO) will resume. Time will tell as they say
9. phdinbubbles said...
Crikey - the bears are dropping like flies.
So what about all those repo's? The numbers in arrears aren't declining and the IR slashing of the BoE has only bought those with reduced income more time to pay with their savings - dragging out the lagging effect of unemployment. Distressed selling will continue for a long time yet. Sellers will want their cake and eat it before long - can we really go on into the future on the basis of 50% volumes - won't all those hanging on to houses they should rationally have sold want to put them on the market once they realise this mole hill has peaked? The banks aren't showing any genuine sign of changing their lending criteria, despite the media bigging up the odd niche deal out there.
10. Smug Punter said...
give up and grow up
11. mystie010 said...
Hey guys don't fret this exactly the news we want to hear! Why you may ask? Because all of the numpties out there who bought at the top of the market and are now struggling cos they overstretched themselves, will put their shacks back on the market and we all know what an oversupply spells! The governement owned banks may be restricting the supply of reposession houses, but they can't do anything about the numpties!
12. bluebeach said...
To me, yesterday was a pivotal point this downturn. Yesterday had many pointers and indicators that things will deteriorate no more unless there is a monumental catastrophic economic turn, and in that unlikely event, we will all be fecked anyway. Today I will begin preparing offers on 3 properties that I have had my eye on and see what develops. Today is the beginning of my new contented life - hopefully without rent and most definitely without mortgage. I'm fed up with this battle....I want peace....... THANKYOU AND GOODBYE (_8(|)
13. braindeed said...
jack c @ 8
A good logical argument, hard to fault – trouble is housing is more than just a punt or abstract commodity, it’s as a basic necessity like food and water.
Old time rent acts and restrictions were put in place to temper the market’s basic inhumanity – since their abolition, who can say how much these new ‘investments’ can be sweated?
A lot economic commentators on this blog would appear to be securely housed and possess major paper equity – perhaps unable to appreciate the frustrations and fears that would make the herd defy apparent logic.
The others, who are at least for now locked, out have my heartfelt sympathy – but I can’t help thinking that stories of portfolios being held offshore, and the other three card trick trading that is written of, are not totally divorced from the house price boom.
I’ll bet that this paper slosh really contributes to the misery – I just can’t see derivative traders et al as anything other than a symptom of a very sick society.
Probably personable enough blokes though.
14. mrflibble said...
@11. bluebeach
Today I will begin preparing offers on 3 properties that I have had my eye on and see what develops.
Haven't you just picked the second worst time to buy though, the first being the peak of 2007?
15. mystie010 said...
bluebeach act in haste and repent at your leisure I would hate to buy a house now only to find that after Christmas I could have bought an even bigger one for less money. You have given in to the spin - a fool and his money etc. etc. But if it makes you happy :-)
16. bluebeach said...
MrFribble...... perhaps so....but I sold in 2007 for my highly inflated asking price.... I'm downsizing and hope to knock say 15% off already deflated repossessed prices... If it works out... I will be content with that and retreat from the noise... Things don't seem to add up these days but you can't price in human nature...
17. braindeed said...
mystie010 @14
a fool and his money etc. etc. But if it makes you happy :-)
That was vulgar. Bluebeach has decided to pay the prices demanded, because he wants to get on with living - in the long run we are all dead. I wish hime good fortune.
18. mystie010 said...
braindeed I beg to differ, as I said, and you quoted "But if it makes you happy :-)" With a smiley face might I add, and of course I wish him well! However I genuinely hope that he doesn't regret his decision after Christmas though as it would be a shame - Just to clear up any misunderstanding!
19. Smug Punter said...
@13- Mr Dribble .......'Haven't you just picked the second worst time to buy though, the first being the peak of 2007'
You really do talk some rubbish, mr. drivel!
20. mrflibble said...
@15. bluebeach
Hope it works out for you, just make sure you give those sellers a good hard whipping...
If the fierce falls resume by the time you get to exchange, re-negotiation or walk away.
21. braindeed said...
a fool and his money......
Let me reflect a moment. - No, definitely vulgar!!!
22. mystie010 said...
No you took me the wrong way! Are you one of those sad people who always has to have the last word, even after an explanation is given - now that's what I call vulgar!!!!!!!! End of!
23. braindeed said...
I say - steady on
24. phdinbubbles said...
The fact that prices are rising in the face of reason shows how much of a speculators game housing has become. But the speculators are composed of a large part of the population and they still think they can't fail. It's different this time! Doomed I tell ye.
Anyway, good luck Bluebeach.
25. Spectator said...
Need we just remind ourselves of the DNA of the bubble.
We are now in the "return to normal phase".
We have a long way to go people, so please consider that:
Interest rates have to go up
Unemployment will continue to go up
Governments are starting to withdraw state support (China, Germany etc)
High street is falling back again
FTBs cant get on the ladder
Those FT owners have no equity gain to move onwards
26. mystie010 said...
braindeed I'm genuinely only joking with you here, and if you could see me I do actually have a smile on my face. I'm not here to uspset anyone and I'm sorry if I did.
27. braindeed said...
For a minute I took your caustic comment about me having the last word, to be true - phew, thank goodness.
28. mystie010 said...
No worries! :-)
29. luckyjim said...
Lol. Bluebeach's comments remind me of the scene in 'The Great Escape' when one of the inmates cracks and makes a run for the fence. 'I canny take it anymore'
I think he was Scottish. I could be getting it confused with Dad's army.
30. bluebeach said...
Ha! was it hughie that was once in Crossroads?!? Ha..... No... I've fallen for a lovely converted barn overlooking a hill with a castle ruin on top and with officially the 3rd bluest sky in the whole world!!!! Beat that!!!
31. refusetobuy said...
@Bluebeach
Just make sure it's a nice place where you are happy to stay for the next 15 years.
32. flashman said...
luckyjim: I think it was Archie who ran for the fence. Sticking with The Great Escape, some of our confident house price predictions could be likened to the blind forger who pretended he could still see and then fell over an outstretched leg
33. doomwatch said...
A statistical aberration brought about by low volume sales, but those sales are high value. Come Nov/Dec we
will see a return to the negative trend 3 nonths after the 1st suckers rally.
34. hpwatcher said...
Good luck with your purchase Bluebeach, I know exactly how you feel.....and feel like that myself too.
Though, something inside tells me that the real falls are yet to come.
35. flashman said...
bluebeach: There are no wrong or right decisions. As I have said before, the human lifespan is limited and waiting is not always the right thing to do. Good luck to you … but why don't you stick around? It's always good to see a diversity of opinions and characters
36. braindeed said...
Ms_tie010 @25
Thanks
37. mark wadsworth said...
Maybe BB is right, maybe he isn't.
But first look at the chart which I pinched from this very site a couple of days ago showing that there was a suckers' rally during the early 1990s house price crash at exactly the same stage (timewise) in proceedings. The price falls then resumed and continued for another two years.
38. bluebeach said...
Flashman.... although for me, it could be the right time to settle down into a new chapter of my life.. I may well stick around because the majority of views on this site are well balanced and informative on many aspects of life. I feel that the contributors to this site have a more sensible and meaningful outlook on the world than many 'professionals' on the outside..... Thanks y'all
39. braindeed said...
MW @34
I think this time the total deflate, will be made up of two distinct parts.
1. The 20% nominal fall that has taken place already
2 An inflation based debasement as in the 74/75 crash - where prices remained static, but inflation raced away to about 25%
I do think that the IR tool could be tweaked to keep inflation to say 5-7%, which when compounded over just a few years, could erode the real prices by another similar amount in just a couple of years - returning HPs to somewhere near the historical relationship to salaries.
In the 90's we didn't have China holding zillions of deflating dollars as a sinkhole for the inflation effects either - I'd be really hacked off is I was a coolie with savings accumulated over 15 years of 'reform'.
40. Chrisb said...
2 comments
1 - How can it be spin, when if you look at the basic sales details it tells you the same thing, this isn't spin, this is just reporting information - whether you believe the trend will continue or not is up to you, but don't try and make out that the information isn't correct
2 - Jack C - if it was just people buying quality homes then why has the pattern been equal across all housing types, be they terraced, detached or whatever.
I don't profess to have the answers to what's goin gto happen, but I work with this data all the time so know what's spin and what's genuine information.
41. flashman said...
I think it's time to restate my house price bearishness. The stock market and the economy are a nightmare to predict. I would go so far as to say don't bother trying. On the other hand house prices are relatively easy to predict. Ignore the stock market/economy noise and concentrate on the 2 house price master fundamentals, which are unemployment and interest rates (in that order). Stock markets do not buy houses...people buy houses and soon they will not be able to afford current prices. When the economy has stabilised there will be circa 3 million unemployed and interest rates and taxes will DEFINATELY rise. There is no way past the simple fact that people will have less to spend. The past high correlations between unemployment/interest rates and house prices indicate that there is an extremely high probability of significant house price falls around the summer of 2010
We should be cheering on the stock market rise and a return to economic stability because then we can get on with reality
42. luckyjim said...
MW
The circumstances of today are a completely different to the 90s crash. There is no logical reason why it should follow the same pattern. All crashes are NOT the same.
Lets say Bluebeach has an opportunity to buy a wonderful home at 25% below peak prices. If he is to miss that opportunity the arguments for further substantial falls (and soon) need to be much more convincing.
43. braindeed said...
luckyjim @38
exactly so LJ - and 25% off means a 33% rise is needed to return to Peak prices could be the bottom.
44. titaniccaptain said...
Tell me you lot.....do any of you see a connection between prime London property/Prime Property nationally priced over £1m selling like hot cakes because the cash rich are getting itchy feet and an increase in house prices? I do.........just like the national average wage is fudged by London and high earners nationally so are house prices.
This is going to lead to a country where there is a housing divide.....those that can afford to OWN a house and those who cannot....£160,000ish average house price.................so who the f#ck can go to the bank and pull out a deposit for that?.....only the cash rich.......50k+ is a laughable amount of cash to get your hands on for the average worker on an average wage.......
Blue Beach.........good luck... as Flashman said life is too short...waiting around to start your life is not a healthy way to live....I know I have been doing it for too long myself.
But there is another scenario that I can see unfolding..........perhaps we will return a situation where there will be less home owners and more renters......Home ownership will return to being the luxury of the few....as wrong as it is that could be the future.
And as a point of interest....I was driving through Merthyr town center and saw a home made for sale sign... 50k cash........I later found out it was sold for 30k.....3 bed beautiful cottage that needed about 15k of work in a a very pleasant area over looking Cyfarthfa Park.
http://images.google.co.uk/images?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&hs=R6N&resnum=0&q=Cyfarthfa+Park&um=1&ie=UTF-8&ei=guqoSsT1G-O6jAeIoKCBCA&sa=X&oi=image_result_group&ct=title&resnum=5
That's a collection of pics of said park.
I am holding out because I know in my water that the crash hasn't started yet..........Throw as many stats at me as you want....until deposits become affordable for those on low incomes there will be no recovery just blips and they may be protracted blips just like this one. Anything else is unsustainable.
45. mrflibble said...
@38. luckyjim
Lets say Bluebeach has an opportunity to buy a wonderful home at 25% below peak prices. If he is to miss that opportunity the arguments for further substantial falls (and soon) need to be much more convincing.
The average house price is £160k, the average salary is £25k, the base rate is at a 300 year low with unemployment heading for 3m.
Something is going to give...
46. ontheotherhand said...
MW@34 - Commentary about that chart from the report I lifted it from as follows;
Property prices have seen a severe downturn since their peak in August 2007. Initial falls appeared
to be in line with the price falls seen in the 1990s, however by month 10 the trend changed
considerably and in 2008 prices started to decline much faster than the 1990’s.
One possible explanation for the sudden decline in prices could be the influence of the buy-tolet
market where BTL property prices are more sensitive to expectations of property prices as the
property is an investment. Prices therefore behave more like commercial rather than residential prices
(i.e. fall at a faster rate).
In addition, in April 2008 a composite rate of tax was introduced on Capital Gains. This meant
that any sellers who waited until after April 2008 to sell their property were able to retained more of the
capital gains from the sale than before this date. This led to an increase in sales in a very short space
of time which affected expectations of future prices.
Over the last few months we have seen stabilisation in house prices, however there is good
reason to believe that this stabilisation is somewhat temporary and we are likely to see prices fall
again soon.
If we look at the previous recession in the 1990’s we see a similar trend of price stabilisation at the
same point in the cycle, before rising unemployment and the slow down in economic activity
cause property prices to fall again for a sustained period on a month by month basis.
Similarly, in this downturn we expect property prices to fall again once the recession effect sets
in and the effects of unemployment start to bite the real economy e.g. loss of income and demand for
mortgages.
47. mark wadsworth said...
Lucky Jim, I wish BB all the luck in the world. If he can snap something up at 33% below peak (or whatever) then who am I to advise against?
But if you ask me, all house price crashes are the same. As Flashman says, house price movements are easy to predict. Ten years ago I was running round telling people to Buy! Buy! Buy! (and I did so myself, one house, four flats) and for the past couple of years I have been running rouns shouting Sell! Sell! Sell!
48. mark wadsworth said...
Here's that chart but inflation-adjusted (taken from Nationwide's series):
49. crunchy said...
Brainweed.
One can only feel sympathy for him!
50. timmy t said...
Maybe BB is right. Better to buy now and lose 10% of your cash than wait and lose 10% of your life because you're miserable.
51. mark wadsworth said...
TT, why do you equate renting with "losing your life"?
I have these discussions with Her Indoors, and I point out that even though we are renting, we are eating the same food, enjoying the same sunshine (or rain, as the case may be), mixing with the same friends, doing the same jobs and sending the kids to the same schools as we would be doing if we owned instead of rented. Having made the big wrench of selling up two years ago, we might as well hang on a bit longer...
52. timmy t said...
Mark - don't get me wrong - I sold too and rent now and am very happy with my decision. But if all I did was mope around wishing I owned my house then I'd be miserable - so I would buy. I'm happy renting but I know many aren't.
53. paranoia blue said...
Re: renting.
No maintenance worries nor costs.
Problem neighbours? – can move within two months at a fraction of the costs.
Overall, just now, it is considerably cheaper, and it gives us breathing space to decide where we finally wish to settle.
54. alan said...
I can't back this up with stats, but I know a number of people who have wanted to buy a property for the past 2 years and have held off. They all see "a buying opportunity". Prices have dropped by 10 or 12%, ergo - its time to buy!
They are borrowing from friends and family and then stretching themselves to the limit (M25/Essex border).
I'm not defending the position, just relating anecdotal evidence.
55. letsgetreadytotumble said...
I'm hanging in to SEE what happens, rather than GUESS what happens next,
Over the next 2 years, prices will not increase much if we do have a general increase, that's for sure, but there's a lot of room for big reductions. After all, 30% of an expensive item like a house is a lot of money. The market is showing some upward trends, but all based on stimuli that are short term effectors, and in the long term, prices will drop significantly. This can happen and has been proved. Before the stimuli were introduced, prices were dropping at the fastest rate in history, and this can happen again. There's been a lot of verbal kidology of late, with the VI brigade being readily quoted by the media, but the numbers show the real deal.
56. braindeed said...
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