Wednesday, Sep 09, 2009
FTSE close to breaking through the 5000 mark
FT: Stronger outlook lifts FTSE 100 towards 5,000
Positive trade data showing UK exports rising at their fastest pace since Jan 2008 helped push the FTSE upwards to within touching distance of 5000 mark.
Posted by denzil @ 03:15 PM (1250 views) Add Comment
14 Comments
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1. little professor said...
Closed at 5004.
2. taffee said...
for now!
3. hpwatcher said...
and every penny of it is QE cash
4. jack c said...
S&P 500 currently above highest close in 11 months
techie your latest thoughts?
5. tinker said...
So they played the property market with leveraged imaginary money, now they play the stock market with counterfeit printy printy money.
It will end in tears, probably ours!
6. robh said...
To think, Green and Blacks Organic ice cream is now going to be Kraft
That means the city can get some money, which came by QE from us
and now our money will only buy a Kraft cheese slice
The children downstairs are screaming again
Sorry. Thought I was on FaceBook
7. Al Young said...
stands to reason:
no value in property and
no cash in cash
they've got to put in somewhere.
8. Sold My Soul To The Never Never Never said...
Perhaps the old adage should be rewritten this year.
Buy in May, sell on St Leger Day (St Leger day being this coming Saturday)!
9. techieman said...
Jack c @ 4 Just back from watching the boys beat the Croats. Re FTSE My thoughts haven't changed. Ideally to keep on track to the 5100s we need this pattern to start to stutter. Will that happen? hmmmm. I wonder if you can work out why 5100 is a good area to look for?
The thing is if it doesnt start to stutter we might see a bit of a blow-off (not my view) but if so, we just get short higher. Remember its not about calling the exact high or low its about making money. When i said we could go back down to 4800 - 4850 (actually got down to 4770) that was a pretty good place to go long (it looked awful at the time but then again it ALWAYS does). If i were long there i would be looking for 5120 (for three quarters of the position) oco b/even. As for the other quarter i would probably run that.
The Bulls are almost europhic now - which is a prerequisite for a major near market rally top. No-one could argue that we have had a major bear market rally - unless you argue that the low in March was the end of the bear market correction to a bull market- which is of course possible (no certainties in this game). I did say that the move would probably be bigger than most people thought (but i didnt know i would include myself :-))
4520 was the possible bear market high - that was about 50/50 when it came down to 4100 that it would retest the lows. Taking out 4520 back on the upside was, (i think i said at the time) significant and meant that we should have substantial follow through. Infact taking out 4520 meant a highish probability that 5000+ would be tested.
Thats why i said that when the market came off to 4800 from 4950, i said i had little confidence that the bear market rally @ 4950 was the top.
The fat lady has waddled on the stage - Simon is asking her about her who her idol is!
10. techieman said...
"The fat lady has waddled on the stage - Simon is asking her about her who her idol is!" - btw she has a stutter (or is it stammer) so its more random than normal how long she will take to answer.
11. Billy67 said...
history will telll us its all been funded by false money. Didnt it use to be invest for the long term to enjoy a dividend and captial growth.
lets all gamble - england to win the world cup!!!!!!!
12. bystander said...
Techieman, I am a novice when it comes to the market and market sentiment, but surely the fat lady will continue to stutter for as long as the central banks keep interrupting her with low interest rates and QE. Do they hope, as does the market that if they do it long enough the fat lady will get frustrated enough to vacate the stage (economic recovery will become real through realistic investor/consumer confidence/ cash to fill the gap left by the withdrawal of QE, low interest rates)????????
13. techieman said...
bystander - in my view - and its only a view, most of the good news is priced in the market - stock market (generally not always) a leading indicator unemployment always lagging. All sorts of things could happen.
Basically there is no event risk in the market now - we only need some kind of new shock which the market hasnt discounted for it to all go t1ts up, particularly at an extreme of bullish sentiment. Probably the market will have some "profit taking" off the top and then retrace upwards and then perhaps some unforseen event hit from out of the blue.
Of course i have nothing scientific to back that up - just experience. I have no "monopoly on wisdom". Remember when the market was at its lows in March most people were calling it lower - its the same now in reverse.
14. hpwatcher said...
It's all hype....just watch what happens next.....