Friday, Sep 11, 2009
False Dawn in a Mini Bubble
FT: House price fall tipped after end of 'irrational' rally
Phew a bit of light at the end of the tunnel this week a few bearish articles and reminders that when a large % has turned bullish then usually the market turns.
Posted by sybil13 @ 07:56 AM (3329 views) Add Comment
77 Comments
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1. sybil13 said...
Going back and reading the article I have to wonder why they speak of SIGNIFICANT falls and W shaped recovery and then only speak of 7% falls next year? To get a double dip I would have thought the market would have to fall close to the 20% it has already fallen wouldn't you otherwise it would just be a bit of a dent in a V wouldn't it?
2. phdinbubbles said...
"Going back and reading the article I have to wonder why they speak of SIGNIFICANT falls and W shaped recovery and then only speak of 7% falls next year? "
Was about to say the same thing. At least they recognize the irrational aspect of the current bounce, but their predictions for the next few years are somewhat optimistic imho.
3. smugdog said...
THE BRITISH ARE IRRATIONAL. A SMALL DIP AND THEN ONWARDS AND UPWARDS AGAIN AND AGAIN. LOOK AT YOUR HISTORY BOOKS.
4. James said...
At # 1
"Jones Lang LaSalle, the property adviser, says the market stabilisation looked unsustainable and forecast that prices would drop about 7 per cent next year."
Personally I think this is wishful thinking, manipulation, and double speak.
Jones Lang La Salle is THE main property advisor to the Lloyds/Hbos group. Who have the biggest mortgage book in the UK. £330Billion plus.
So there goes their credibility straight away.
It was reported that up to 80% of Hbos mortgages were so called liar loans.
So are Jones Lang La Salle a huge VI group? Yep. I would say so.
Maybe they are being proactive, and trying to engineer a bottom like the bank itself.........
If Lang La Salle are saying 7%, I would suggest you could double that figure.
[And even then they would still be overpriced.........]
5. flashman said...
smugdog: There is more than an element of truth in your post. However, I wonder if the Romans, Byzantines, Akkadians and Assyrians said similar things? Check your history books
6. phdinbubbles said...
@smugdog
Thanks for highlighting your opinion in captial letters - not sure my brain would have understood it if you hadn't.
Lots of people in lots of Countries are irrational - I don't need a history book to work that one out. However, there usually comes a time when reality bites back.
7. flashman said...
From an article posted earlier today...
“The foreclosure numbers are largely unemployment related,” Davis, a former Federal Reserve Board economist, said in an interview. “As long as 15 million Americans are unemployed, record foreclosures will continue.”
We have not quite reached the level of US unemployment but when we do (probably first quarter 2010), foreclosure numbers will surge. The time lag will be a few months longer than in the States because of the social security cushion but the effect will be the same. Nothing else is possible. I know I keep banging on about the link between house prices/unemployment but I actually think we are setting ourselves up for confusion and disappointment if we pin our hopes on anything other than unemployment and foreclosures
8. jack c said...
@smugdog - "A SMALL DIP AND THEN ONWARDS AND UPWARDS AGAIN AND AGAIN" - this to me seems irrational and akin to the Buzz Lightyear economics theory on house prices ie to infinity and beyond - or am I missing something?
9. happy mondays said...
Off this topic guy's,my apologies, on a previous posting, hpwatcher Say's 'Just wait till the QE madness is over.....house prices have no where to go'.
Me not being a financial man, & find this economical stuff quite complex.. Can they not keep it going ? i know it will devalue the £, but as long as they keep the prices of houses high to suit the Vi's. The conveyor belt of cash coming from BOE will just keep flowing until there's enough printed to prop up the economy ! Or has there got to be an end to the pumped in monopoly money ?
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11. paul said...
Estate Agent by any chance smugdog?
I know you must be very bored, but please get back to looking busy. Someone might come in to the office today - you never know.
12. happy mondays said...
Smugdog, surely you jest - a one way ticket to oblivion... You should be an ea or banker..
13. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
14. flashman said...
happy: No they can not keep QE going indefinitely because it is, in effect, a game of chicken with the bond markets. There is a point where QE will have to swerve of the road.
One thing I will question though is the link between QE and house prices. It is often trotted out like some kind of mantra but I see very little link. If banks were lending at elevated levels and had relaxed their lending criteria them I think we could consider QE to have been responsible. The original fall in prices was down to a huge contraction in credit but the current volume of transactions is low enough to be mopped up by cash rich buyers so the limited availability of credit is having no further effect on prices. We will however have a follow through fall in prices when unemployment causes the volume of transactions to overwhelm the limited demand from the cash rich
15. mark wadsworth said...
@ Happy Mondays, QE is all smoke and mirrors and does not, of itself, lead to an increase in government borrowing (it merely changes one kind of government debt - long dated gilts - into another kids - commercial bank deposits with the Bank of England). As has been shown, it does not increase banks' willingness to lend to mortgage borrowers.
As a completely separate issue, the government can "print" money by running up huge deficits, which they clearly intend to do and the Tories will only chip away at the margins.
I suppose the government's next best hope is to have rampant inflation like during the early seventies crash so that nominal house prices stay flat but real house prices fall by a third (and there's no reason to assume that the Tories will be any different to Labour in this regard - they are just the blue and red wings of the home-owners' party). I don't think this will work either. You can only have hyper inflation if you have a closed economy and currency controls (UK currency controls were only lifted in the late 1970s IIRC).
This is partly why the Japanese never had hyper-inflation in the last two decades, despite government debts increasing from 80% to 200% of GDP (or whatever the figures are) and zero or 0.5% base rates during that period. They have a very open economy (well certainly in the outward direction) and no currency controls.
16. stillthinking said...
UK house prices are determined by finance availability, not opinion. What are the chances of high LTVs reappearing over the next three years? I would say pretty none existent.
Unemployment, repossessions/over supply are all negative for housing but the capital requirements for the banks have been changed in such a way that banks can make ten different 60% loans for the same capital as a single 90% loan would require i.e. banks make the most profit with 40% down payment mortgages. There is a whole generation starting off with university debt at 20K quite ignoring wide spread personal debt. Who sets prices in the UK? Some numpty dreaming of a terrace at 300K already in debt dependant on Labour for a salary, or where the banks who managed to take billions in support off the taxpayer see the most profit? So, choice of numpty or bank. I don't think numpty sets price levels, even en masse.
Given the collapsed number of transactions, and the repeated use of average not median price it is hard to know whether there even was a mini-rally, but as an alternate explanation, inside cash buyers minds the conclusion was that house price would collapse in such a spectacularly dramatic death dive, that they (unfortunately) doubted their own (correct) reasoning and marched lemming style to the estate agents.
17. hpwatcher said...
THE BRITISH ARE IRRATIONAL. A SMALL DIP AND THEN ONWARDS AND UPWARDS AGAIN AND AGAIN. LOOK AT YOUR HISTORY BOOKS.
Yeah, look at the english......win one football match and they already think they are going to win the world cup!
18. hpwatcher said...
14. stillthinking said...UK house prices are determined by finance availability, not opinion. What are the chances of high LTVs reappearing over the next three years? I would say pretty none existent.
Not neccasarily. The finance could be available, but they don't borrow because they are worried about their jobs.
19. denzil said...
I clearly can't speak for the scene around the UK but in and around my area of Somerset I cannot see where price falls are going to materialise from as there is no property for sale due to wall to wall SOLD signs. The ratio of For Sale/ Sale Agreed/SOLD is probably higher with respect to SOLD than at any point I can ever remember.
20. nomad said...
Is this a reasonable supposition? "The banks are supporting house prices and the government (future tax payers) are supporting banks." If correct then can this firm grip be loosened?
The banks, as well as controlling lending, are limiting the number of houses coming onto the market by (a) not enforcing repossessions and (b) retaining repossessed houses on their books.
Can we obtain information on how many houses are being kept from market by the banks?
Together with reluctant sellers there is a huge stockpile of houses ready to come to market but will it be controlled or capitulation?
21. 51ck-6-51x said...
Flash said, "One thing I will question though is the link between QE and house prices. It is often trotted out like some kind of mantra but I see very little link"
- I am strongly inclined to agree. QE is a tool to shift the risk landscape ( this was discussed here when QE was being proposed - many thought it was just a way of increasing the money supply, but it's not quite, rather it has the power to increase the money supply, but not if the money does not really get supplied [ i.e. if it just moves in a tight pool, as it has done ] ) - it would make lending more favourable in that it becomes relatively less risky, but with the central bank paying interest on deposits I don't think it has done that job too well, it may have made banks feel more comfortable [ i.e,. reduced their panic ] though.
stillthinking said, "I don't think numpty sets price levels, even en masse."
- yep, a market may be moved away from fundamentals by those who wish to speculate and have the means to do so. One cannot buy an apple down one's local market without either cash in hand or a friendly stall holder who is willing to let you write an IOU; if the masses have neither of these options there may be little movement in the price of apples but down unless the few with cash in hand manage to move the market, which is tough to do if the stall holder wants to get rid of his apples before they sour.
smugdog, said, " BLAH BLAH BLAH"
- Sorry, I don't listen if you shout.
22. nomad said...
Factual knowledge. The house next door just sold, instantly, for £250,000. Was worth £285,000 in October 2007. Down 12% - and the seller wanted the deal, she had made an offer on her dream house. So could have got more. Nice area of Christchurch.
23. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
24. nomad said...
smugdog, I think you are an invention, either by a regular or the site managers - DETERMINED TO BRING NEW LIFE AND AGGRESSION TO THE FORUM DURING A PLATEAU OF MOVEMENT IN HOUSE PRICES.
The use of caps is for shouting by people uncomfortable with their arguments.
25. Mark said...
QE artificially inflates bond prices, reducing yields. This increases house prices by reducing the cost of fixed price mortgages. If there was no QE bonds would be yielding 5%+, and fixed rate mortgages would be 7%+. As the level of government debt requirement increases, bond yields will need to increase to fund this. Inevitably this would lead to higher mortgage rates and a lager house price correction.
26. 51ck-6-51x said...
denzil said, "...wall to wall SOLD signs"
- Where, on the street or in the E.A.'s window?
If you mean in the E.A.'s window, then this makes sense if there is actually little on the market, they want to appear busy so they keep anything that has sold in the window rather than have 120 spaces with 20 properties and 100 blank entries ( or each property 5 times ). It may be worth a little research like going to the properties and asking when it was bought ( or similar ). Furthermore, if they are "Sale Agreed" rather than "Sold" then this just means an offer has been accepted, it may still fall though - the rate of such occurrences also seems to be at or near a high.
If you mean on the street, these are only "Sale Agreed", - what buyer would let ( or allow ) the agent leave such a sign outside their new property?
( I noted earlier in the summer how where I am in N. London I noticed many agents were holding summer fetes and had put up boards outside houses to advertise these events, however the E.A.'s name was big and the information about the fete small. To the casual observer they looked like for sale signs. Do not underestimate the sell side's drive to increase interest in their market. )
27. Another_pleb said...
@jack c. In a similar vein, house prices are not flying right now, they are falling... with style!
28. bellwether said...
I've been banging on about the lack of repossesions as significant, I see this as the result of a combination of factors (a) banks not wanting to admit that their capital is sh*t which would be proven if they had to sell at the rate that defaults infer and (b) the government not wanting prices to fall and owning said banks that would effect the repos. This is QE by stealth and it's killing our HPC for now. It concerns me how far they might push this. A new form of social housing? It is also something happening on a huge scale in the commercial property market
If you get repos then you get volume and number 25 Price Ramp Row sells for a price far less than 27 Ramp Row sold for 2 years ago and that than infers the value of all of the other houses on Ramp Row are on a par with number 25. A killer blow.
29. flashman said...
smugdog: Yes, greed is a big factor in British life but do you think greed can sustain growth ad infinitum? It is my experience that greed is implicated in the eventual collapse of all markets. I would really appreciate your thoughts on this. We don't get many bullish contributors on this site and it would be useful, for the purpose of debate, if you could expand on your views.
30. timmy t said...
Denzil, there are 3 or 4 houses close to me that say sold outside, but they have said that for about 8 months. Every now and then it changes to for sale but then quickly back to sold shortly after. Can only assume that the "sales" keep falling through due to someone in the chain not getting finance. Vendors will reach the point where if they really want to sell then they'll have to drop the price.
31. happy mondays said...
Thanks guy's for the response..
32. luckyjim said...
666
Why would estate agents want to put up loads of fake 'for sale' signs ? There is a recently built development in my town which is plastered with for sale sign and it tells me that everybody want to get out of it. It doesn't encourage me to buy a house there.
33. uncle tom said...
I've just been looking at current mortgage rates being offered to the BTL brigade, and then comparing them to nett rental incomes..
..ouch!
Not hard to find properties being let for £750pcm that have a market value of £180k
£750pcm = £9000 nominal yield. If nett yield (after voids, management costs, maintenance etc.etc) is 60% of gross, then nett income = £5400 p.a
If property is 75% mortgaged, then mortgage is for £135k. Best deal for BTL 75% mortgage (after factoring in arrangement fees) is close to 7%
7% of £135k = £9450 interest.
So shortfall is a whopping £4050 p.a., or, put another way, mortgage costs are 75% greater than net income.
How many of the BTL 'portfolio' brigade can hold out against those maths for much longer..?
34. smugdog said...
Flashman, as you very well know - If one learns to taste greed and subsequently smell the fear, and may I add, get your timing approximately in the right space, you will have a ball, a veritable ball.
35. nomad said...
A week ago in Solihull I saw a house, with a "SOLD" sign in place, being inspected by a clipboard holding lady who had stepped out of a Nationwide car. This tells me that the signs were up before a mortgage had been obtained.
36. phdinbubbles said...
There's been a 'SOLD' sign on a house near me for several months. On the EAs website there's a message along the lines of houses selling quickly or some other such nonsense. Haven't noticed anyone moving in.
37. 51ck-6-51x said...
luckyjim
- Well, I should really have said that to the casual observer they could look like either For Sale, or Sold signs, and one will naturally see what one wants too, so it act to increase interest in the market. Those thinking nothing is selling are more likely to approach the agent to market their property and those who are thinking of looking for somewhere to buy are more likely to visit the office of the agent ( it's simply a form of advertising, with a subliminal edge ). Most are not as logical in their actions as you or I, but will be influenced by such devices. I observed it and noted it. There must be a reason, and I do not think it was because they wanted a busy fete! ( It was also more than one agent involved. I should have taken some photos really. Oh, hindsight. )
38. 51ck-6-51x said...
smugdog,
- Thanks for not shouting now.
You do realise that greed and fear are life partners, right? Fear and greed are both simply manifestations of hope through desire, as noted some two thousand four hundred ( or more ) years ago by a notable philosopher named Siddhārtha Gautama. The ancient Greeks also wrote about this proposition some four or five centuries earlier when Hesiod wrote the Theogony and described the birth of the universe as the creation from chaos of Eros and Gaia, that is desire and Earth. And again when he wrote Works and Days, with the well known actions of Pandora, the first woman ( yes it is very much a sexist text, but the philosophy still shines through ), who closed her box ( or rather jar ) upon realising she was letting out evils, and all that remained inside was hope. Maybe it is you who needs to read up on their history?
39. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
40. flashman said...
slumdog: Thanks for the reply. I agree that we should not entirely ignore the irrational. I also agree that for the purposes of speculation, timing and 'smelling the fear' is everything. However, I think that going forward, mass speculation in the housing market will no longer be the force it once was. BTL and development finance has been severely restricted by the banks because they do not consider them to be particularly profitable or safe activities. The risk managers at the major banks are unanimous is their desire to limit or remove their exposure to property speculation.
In the absence of speculation, it will therefore be the average home owner who will drive the market (the vast majority of houses are owned by people who do not have the will or the resources to speculate with their homes).
In my opinion, unemployment, taxation and interest rates will increase. If I am right (I might not be), many home owners will no longer be able to afford their already burdensome mortgages and new buyers will not have the disposable income to buy at current prices. Prices will therefore have to fall. The only (admittedly 'rational') way of thinking that house prices will rise is if you believe that disposable income, employment and speculative lending will all increase. Do you believe this will happen or are you basing your house price bullishness on traditional British irrationality and greed? Fair play to you if you are.
41. Stammer said...
Smugdog at 30
I could almost hear the sounds of a crypt door creaking open when I read that.
42. mystie010 said...
I've just joined this thread and everyone seems to be getting a bit heated today - what's up guys?
43. smugdog said...
666. sorry, that was wrong of me. RESPECT.
44. 51ck-6-51x said...
smugdog
- I know not to what you refer I'm afraid; shouting is rude hence my prior post, your latest post, although witty, is also rude. Rude and offensive comments are generally not welcome, especially in a recurring manner, hence why I still attempted to enter dialogue even after you repeated shouting a third time. Please accept my apology for my earlier post, if you really took offence, which was simply meant to prompt you into not shouting any more, I was most likely too terse. Feel free to explain your latest comment, just do it without being rude, and remember that things such as sarcasm do do air themselves well in textual form without annotation. Thank you.
45. 51ck-6-51x said...
smugdog
OK - we apologised to each other. Thank you for yours.
46. 51ck-6-51x said...
- LOL @ self. "do do" -> "do not".
47. quiet guy said...
@mystie010
"everyone seems to be getting a bit heated today"
Yep, I'd say the same. HPC is drifting away and perhaps some of us are feeling a bit bruised? Before 2007, this blog hummed along nicely waiting for the inevitable, then we had a slump and became used to seeing house price drops but the prices are on the march again.
It's worse to be given something then have it taken away compared with just not having what you want in the first place. I wonder how the property bulls will feel when the next leg of the crash kicks in? (after the election IMHO)
48. Neil B said...
Quote Smugdog: "GREED IS THE LIFE BLOOD OF BRITAIN"
Sure is fella! And if you dont like it... you know what to do!
49. smugdog said...
When we hold items, we want those items to grow in value, when we don't and crave them, we want them to fall. We change our position in our journey through life. Bulls ,bears, leopards and spots.
50. flashman said...
Wise words smugdog. In the words of The Stones, 'you can't always get want you want'
51. nomad said...
Here's Jeff Randall's latest missive, rampant as ever, and I for one am in agreement with him. I will enter the weekend with my HPC beliefs reinvigorated. Patience is all that is needed.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeffrandall/6169820/Recovery-talk-is-meaningless-to-the-man-with-his-P45-in-the-post.html
However, here's another theory. housepricecrash.co.uk has got up the backs of so many of the string pullers in this country that absolutely anything will be done to prove the "negative opinionated b$st$ards" wrong. So remove the site and the market will do its work.
52. uncle tom said...
"I wonder how the property bulls will feel when the next leg of the crash kicks in? (after the election IMHO)"
There is something not quite right when one compares the prevailing market conditions with the reports from Nationwide, Halifax etc.
I'm not saying there is a conspiracy to cheat and deceive, but their may be a weakness in the methodologies used.
Compare the number of properties on the market with the number sold, and in many areas you find more properties for sale than have been sold in the last year - it seems implausible that such a slow market could see widespread price rises.
Consider the way the price indexes are calculated - by classes of property and broad postcode areas. Within each of those categories there is very wide range of value. Consider also who have actually been buying and selling houses over the last few months - the market has clearly been dominated by the most affluent.
In other words, the baskets of property sales that are compared to create the price indices, may now be containing a slightly disproportionate number of more valuable properties, giving rise to misleading data.
That progressive distortion cannot continue for very long, and should then revert, possibly over-correcting as it does so.
As those struggling to sell less attractive property start to get impatient, or have their hand forced, we could see a slightly disproportionate number of cheaper properties sold for a while
My money is on the bulls suffering a big loss of confidence, and quite possibly before Xmas.
53. flashman said...
Sorry, just realised I misspelled your name on an earlier post. Saw the movie 'Slumdog' recently and had it on the brain. Mind you it would be a good name for a housing bull (slum landlord etc). In a similar vein, I called myself flashman because I though it would be a good name for a city worker
I hope you continue posting
54. mark wadsworth said...
On the topic of things that are shaped like a W, here's my chart du jour:
55. mystie010 said...
quiet guy (Post 42) Yes I totally agree with you I think that we are all getting a bit fed up (I know I am). I think that not only have we had our HPC snatched from under us but also I think our sense of fair play has been dented. I know that I for one played by all of the rules for example: never took on too much debt, paid my own way in life etc. But it just seems like this re-inflation of the housing bubble by dubious means, equates to us having to wait even longer until the inevitable crunch happens again. The inevitable is being put off for election purposes and as a result those of us who played the game have suffered a foul!
56. Chris said...
If QE means that the BoE can take dodgy mortgage based assets from the banks by virtue of being able to print money and in return the banks use the newly printed money to buy UK government debt but also as a cushion to enable them to sit on repossessed properties and decide to reduce the number of repossessions they want to make then yes, QE is propping up the housing market and government borrowing at the same time.
57. flashman said...
mystie010: I am not sure if the prudent can be described as 'playing the game'. The game was to join in the leverage party and have fun. Several millions borrowers and spenders achieved a great deal of lasting benefit from the boom years. If you asked them if they regret it now, the answer would be a resounding no because most of them have not been robbed of the spoils and never will be. Even if a small % end up losing money, they will still have the memories of great holidays, fast cars, nice clothes, luxurious houses and the contentment they felt for years.
In the good years I continuously stumbled onto profit, year after year. My houses soared in value and my investments kept growing exponentially. I sold my main house (a waste of time so far) but even if I hadn't and prices fell 60% it would hardly leave a dent in the gains I accumulated in almost 20 years of continuous boom. There are many millions of people with similar experiences. Even now these people applaud the expansive boom time policies that got us here.
I am firmly in the housing bear camp and I disapprove of the boom/bust recklessness but I thought it might be useful to illustrate the disconnect between the bulls and bears
58. nomad said...
mystie010 @ 49. Yes, and meanwhile what happens to our savings if, as looks likely, inflation gains momentum while deposit rates remain flattened? Doesn't bear thinking about.
59. denzil said...
51ck-6-51x said...
<<<
- Where, on the street or in the E.A.'s window?
If you mean on the street, these are only "Sale Agreed", - what buyer would let ( or allow ) the agent leave such a sign outside their new property? >>
No on the street. I'm not sad or stupid enough to counting SOLD signs in an EA's window.
As for the street, a SOLD sign means SOLD not Sale Agreed, ie contract exchanged, unless of course things work differently where you live. These SOLD signs have appeared in the last two weeks having had a Sale Agreed board for between 6-10 weeks.
No doubt some denial merchant will blog back telling me that SOLD does not mean SOLD and that SOLD signs are planted by EA's to fool the public. I report what I see and am canny enough to know what SOLD means. Maybe people do things differently in other parts of the country but SOLD is legal obligation on the purchaser, SALE Agreed means little more than the vendor has accepted an offer.
60. timmy t said...
Denzil - I'm sure the rules are the same everywhere. Usually there's a massive SOLD sign with "subject to contract" just about visible from 6 inches away.
61. uncle tom said...
Chris said:
"If QE means that the BoE can take dodgy mortgage based assets from the banks.. "
From the BoE, I have copied the latest summary:
Commercial Paper £1,150mn
Corporate Bonds £1,003mn
Gilts £143,374mn
Secured Commercial Paper £0mn
So while they can buy dodgy mortgage backed securities, they are showing very little enthusiasm for doing so..
62. denzil said...
timmy t said:
"Denzil - I'm sure the rules are the same everywhere. Usually there's a massive SOLD sign with "subject to contract" just about visible from 6 inches away."
Yes, you are probably right. The next time I see the removal vans outside I'll go up and tell them to be careful as it actually may not be sold. Also, when I see a chap who is a driver for a removal company in my local tonight and he informs me again that he is rushed off his feet, I will tell him he is a liar and accuse him of a conspiracy. FFS.
It's like an audition for the remake of Monty Python's Black Knight on here some days.
63. mark wadsworth said...
@ Denzil.
Round my way (Essex/London) I've seen it quite often that a For Sale sign comes down to be replaced with a Sold sign and then replaced with a For Sale sign again once the deal falls through.
64. titaniccaptain said...
Boo hoo They pulled my article.....Ah well
Look the HPC is not over until the average man can afford a deposit for a house at average house price.
65. timmy t said...
Denzil - I don't know what your point is...
I got divorced a couple of years ago. Having got completely shafted by a bunch of f***ing lawyers and an ex-wife who was out to get everything she could, she has recently "sold" our old house for 60K more than it was valued at right around the peak for the purposes of divorce. She bought (exchanged, completed, refitting a new bathroom, the whole works), before the sale of the old one completed. This has now fallen through. The SOLD "subject to contract" sign has been pulled and replaced with a new FOR SALE sign.
So I'm just pointing out that SOLD doesn't actually mean SOLD if there is small print.
I'm also pointing out that this EA can't be trusted and my wife was a hag who deserves everything she gets - I hope the bridging loan bankrupts her.
66. uncle tom said...
I'm not sure why you are arguing about the number of actual sales - it's easy to look them up on sites such as www.houseprices.co.uk.
Taking a postcode at random (from an invoice that happens to be on my desk) - CV37 - I can see that 219 properties have been sold in the six months to 24/7 (the last update of the data)
Now switching to Rightmove, and entering the same postcode, I see that there are 655 properties for sale. There will actually be more than that, as not every agent uses Rightmove, but using that figure, I can calculate a mean time on market of no less than 18 months..
Of those 655 properties, 197 are flagged as sold STC. If all those 'sold' properties completed, then the mean time from sale to completion would be 5.5 months - an exceptionally long time.
Given that many sold properties that do complete, do so within a month, it seems reasonable to concluded that the casualty rate amongst 'sold' properties is indeed high, and that there is a very large number of part completed chains, probably for want of an FTB.
67. techieman said...
Flash all that means is you.... and probably I ....were lucky to be born when we were. The difference between us and Mr Average is probably that you and i realise that, they don't.
Thats not to say that guile and sensible risk taking hasn't been skilfully embraced but even if there is no further HPC people might be shocked in the future that we thought these last 20 years were "normal".
68. smugdog said...
Death Knell: Definition: A stroke or tolling of a bell, announcing a death. This blog sure seems to paint a picture of despair. Cheer up guys, the sun still shines. I will catch you again soon, a Neo Gothic to unload before the sun comes down (if you catch my drift). You are clever and informative guys, but lighten up. We are but passing through.
69. 51ck-6-51x said...
Uncle Tom,
How about using Acadametrics FTHPI instead of Halliwide? It's a better sampling methodology IMO.
70. 51ck-6-51x said...
denzil,
Hmm.
Well I for one would not have a cr4ppy SOLD sign on my property.
Seriously, a SOLD sign is almost certainly STC.
Furthermore the letter of the law is behind me on this one. See this document at communities.gov.uk ( you can't get much clearer than that mate! ), I quote from page 14:
"In each case only one board may be displayed on premises and this must be removed not later than 14 days after completion of the sale or granting of the tenancy."
So sorry to dispel with your myth.
71. 51ck-6-51x said...
better close this tag properly Done if this text is not a link.
72. 51ck-6-51x said...
better close this tag properly Done if this text is not a link.
73. 51ck-6-51x said...
To be clear:
"In each case only one board may be displayed on premises and this must be removed not later than 14 days after completion of the sale or granting of the tenancy."
74. smugdog said...
Tech. Do I sense a sway in your belief. I am sure that you have made hay whilst in the sun. A little time in the eye of the storm for Mr Average I think and then a new storm will descend with a vengeance. Have a pleasant weekend.
75. mark wadsworth said...
@ Uncle Tom, comment 66.
We may disagree on a lot, but that is the most stupendous and compelling bit of maths I have seen for a long time. I must nick that for my own 'blog!
(Which supports my flimsy anecdotal evidence that EA's nowadays see "For Sale" and "Sold" signs as virtually interchangeable.)
76. 51ck-6-51x said...
UT / MW,
I didn't think a mathematical argument would sway some ;p
But, yes, it is elegant and cannot be argued with rationally.
77. greenshootsandleaves said...
666 @ 73 'In each case only one board may be displayed on premises and this must be removed not later than 14 days after completion of the sale or granting of the tenancy'
Yes, but then again there isn't an inspector at every street corner....
What about Rightmove and Findaproperty, etc., though? Is it my imagination or could the 'sold' signs on some of the properties they advertise qualify for an anniversary candle or two?