Tuesday, Aug 25, 2009
Wow its all over!!! ;-).
BBC: US consumer confidence 'improves'
...to get it in before smiling :-).
Also more great news : "Prices fell 15.1% last month, compared with July last year, according to the latest figures from S&P/Case-Shiller....the rate of decline had slowed from June. The annual rate of decline in June had been 16.8%"
Posted by techieman @ 05:13 PM (1395 views) Add Comment
61 Comments
- If you do not have an admin password leave the password field blank.
- If you would like to request a password allowing you to add comments and blog news articles without needing each one approved manually, send an e-mail to the webmaster.
- Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
- Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user's views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
- Please adhere to the Guidelines
1. uncle tom said...
US house prices are now very close to being (on average) a third down from their high's.
As they did not reach the same giddy heights as UK prices, and are physically much larger and of much greater physical value than those in the UK, my guess is that they are now pretty close to a level that is sustainable in the longer term.
However, the aftermath of past excess will continue to haunt the US economy for some time, much as it will in the UK; so I expect the US housing market to see some over-correction over the next year or so, before finding a solid base from which it can slowly recover.
The UK market has much further to fall, with consequences that I think will prove much more intractable than those in the US. I still believe that the UK market will see a much greater degree of over-correction than in the US, and that the economy will take very much longer to emerge from recession.
2. 51ck-6-51x said...
Why does the headline have the word improves in quotes? It did improve, right? Or is this because it's the result of a survey, and hence opinion, albeit of a sample taken by a respected organisation?
Still some way to climb before the survey result is in +ve mood territory ( July 45.4; Aug 51.4; +ve mood >90.0 )
3. bellwether said...
And the point UT makes seems to have been missed by Sterling bulls. Even with the recent falls we are akin to the US at their peak in 2004/2005, except that we are facing the issue with higher unemployement and greater government debt.
4. uncle tom said...
Just to put some numbers on this..
The latest Case/Shiller index shows the average US house price to be 57% above 1997 levels.
For UK house prices to fall to 57% above 1997 levels, the Halifax index would have to fall by 33% from where it stands today.
In the ten years prior to peaking (the US peaked before we did) US house prices rose by 138%, while UK prices rose by 183%.
In very rough terms, UK prices have only fallen to the level at which the US market peaked.
It is very clear that UK prices not only have to fall, but fall much further in percentage terms than has been seen in the US.
The depth of negative equity in the UK is going to be far more acute, the percentage of households affected will be far greater, and the economic consequences of that negative equity will be very difficult to move on from.
5. robh said...
Useful to see spelt out UT
It seems impossible to me that a government of any persuasion could 'allow' this kind of fall to happen; they would surely go to any length rather than allow housing to collapse that far. Surely only sustained inflation can work?
6. jack c said...
In the very same BBC business section where this particular article lies is another titled "US deficit to soar towards $1.6tn"
Extract as follows- " Republicans said the latest deficit figures were a serious concern. "The alarm bells on our nation's fiscal condition have now become a siren," said Senate Republican minority leader Mitch McConnell. "If anyone has any doubts that this burden on future generations is unsustainable, they're gone - spending, borrowing and debt are out of control."
I guess part of the stimulous package must have included 250 million pairs of rose tinted spectacles
Full article @ news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8221207.stm
7. hpwatcher said...
good news, more good news, and even more good news....
8. uncle tom said...
robh,
A common and enduring theme has been the notion that the government 'would not allow' house prices to fall.
What has to be understood is that the scale of the housing market, and the numbers involved; mean that government does not have that power. They can delay the inevitable, but in so doing, are only likely to make things worse.
On inflation, I agree; but fear that the delaying tactics of the current incumbents in Downing St. will serve to make a program of managed inflation to devalue debt (I have long advocated 5%..) impossible.
My prediction is that Labour will call an election next year, most probably on May 27th (note your diary.) David Cameron will then take office with an overall, but not stunning majority.
He will then try in vain to find a soft way through the current crisis, but without success. The public will lose confidence, and unless he invents a new side to himself, he will become deeply unpopular. The groundswell of opinion will not want Labour back, but will want a more dynamic and assertive leader. He will suffer as did Neville Chamberlain - nice, but not up to the job..
If he doesn't blot his copybook in the meantime, I see William Hague as the favourite to then take the helm..
[copy, save, and see if I'm right!]
9. bellwether said...
A decent quote from
http://dailyreckoning.com/the-consumer-has-dug-in-his-heels/
Apparently the s and p is trading at p/e of x 145 -not sure if that is correct but I do know it is way out of whack bcos of the anticipated come back of the consumer
Since 1945, the US economy – and much of the rest of the world economy – has been carried on the backs of American consumers. First, they spent money they earned during the war years. Then, they spent money they earned in the big boom of the ’50s and ’60s. And then they spent money they hadn’t earned at all. They borrowed from future earnings…increasing total US debt from just 120% of GDP in the ’70s…to 370% of GDP in 2007.
In the last 15 years of that period, especially, each time the consumer showed a reluctance to continue spending, the feds rushed to give him more credit. And during the final five years – the Bubble Epoque – debt doubled.
Now, the consumer has dug in his heels. He’s not going a step further until he unloads his excess baggage of debt.
Once again, the feds are trying to stimulate him. The Fed’s key interest rate is practically at zero. The feds are pumping money into the economy as fast as they can. And they’ll give a fellow up to $4,500 if he’ll agree to kill his old car.
Even with the stimulus spending…and the stimulating low interest rates…he’s still not willing to add debt. Of course, this is just what happened in Japan. The public sector spent; the private sector saved. Net result: an on-again, off-again recession that has lasted almost 20 years.
This morning’s news tells us that the federal deficit through July comes to $1.27 trillion. We didn’t think that was possible. And despite this inferno of new debt…the 10-year Treasury bond yields barely 3.6%. We never thought that was possible either.
So, anything could happen. But generally, government stimulus only works when it is not needed. That is, it only works when it goes in the same direction as the underlying trend…not against it.
But now, the underlying trend has reversed. It’s no longer a credit expansion; it’s a credit contraction. The consumer has had his fill of debt. He’s cutting back on his spending and paying off debt. That’s what the July figures show. That’s been the history of entire downturn. That’s why it’s a depression, not a recession. It’s a major change of direction that will take years to accomplish. Now, stimulus is not only useless – since it is against the major trend – its counterproductive. It delays and contradicts the adjustments that need to be made.
Encouraging people to buy too much was what caused the problem in the first place. Encouraging them to buy more now is not a solution; it’s just a continuation of the same flawed policy of stimulating consumer demand…a policy that has been in place for decades.
But now the wind is blowing in the other direction. The government may not like it, but they can’t stop it
10. devo said...
Bellwether, I know we've crossed swords in the past, but fair play to you; that's a great post.
11. uncle tom said...
bellwether,
I agree, but we careful of quoting P/E ratios. The stock market is a market of anticipation; it's not what the P/E is today, it's what people anticipate the 'E' will be tomorrow..
Many companies in emerging technologies have an 'E' of zero, and investors are generally comfortable with that (although I'm not a great fan of the concept)
P/E is a good measure to look at for plain vanilla corps, when you're worried that a bull run is nearing a crash.
Looking at average P/E's for an entire stockmarket is easy, but can mislead..
12. Roubinisworstnightmare said...
Gents,
I maintain my call of a permanent rather than cyclical decline in sterling and of a decline in house prices by at least 55% from peak in nominals. There is no way that the british govt can stabilise house prices from here - it has thrown sterling out the window in the attempt and it has no weaponry left. Enjoy the summer - bacause that's the last brief summer in the housing market for at least the next 5 years.
Busts last as long as the preceeding boom - a fact worth remembering....
I just love the fact that banks are holding their reposessed properties in a vehicle to protect book values on these 'illiquid assets'. As the banks were funding their lending model from the wholesale markets rather than depositors they do of course need to make some yield on these assets. I expect these repossessed properties to be leached into the rental market via property management services.
That, combined with a depopulation of urban centres in britain as unemployment rises and expats abanodn the titanic will see rents fall further. I expect rental yields to trade down towards wholesale lending rates eg about 2.5%. For the mathematically inclined - this is of course a classic no-arbitrage argument but as rents fall further due to oversupply the wholesalers will be forced to cash out these bets..
Bottom line - house prices fall now or they fall along a more jagged path in the near future...
I actually expect falls of more than 60% in nominals but i'm not a greedy man - 55% will do me.
The game's up folks - whatever your home was worth in 2007 - divide by 2, if you can. lol
13. fubar said...
Bellweather, Top post. I think you may have coined a term for the historians with 'Bubble Epoque'. That's the first time I've heard it called that. Hope it sticks.
14. robh said...
@8 UT
Thank you. Yes, I put the 'allow' in quote marks. I was implying that whichever government would try almost anything else first
I shall certainly save your comment and see what happens. I rate your comments on here highly
I am often minded of a graph from the oil drum website showing our North Sea oil and gas revenue gradually going more and more below our consumption. My feeling is of a gradual/not so gradual decline. This country needs 'turning round' somehow
15. techieman said...
Talking of predictions bearing fruit....
"Faustus. . . . its a well argued point you make (well actually number of points) but essentially you are basing your premise on past performance. All past performance has been based on corrections to a Major upward trend. This was true of the late 80s/ early 90s correction - it wasnt a crash - and also of 2005. The fact is you can't break the economic cycle, throughout this upmove there has been false dawns but the continual relaxation of credit and re-flation has caused house prices to spike. At SOME point in time this must be deflated and the debt destroyed. Whether that is now and how it will be achieved are the only points worth considering. IF its not now then things will only be worse eventually. I think you are right this destruction wouldnt be in a vaccum and would be associated with very austere times, but that doesnt detract from the argument. As regards electoral suicide thats a bit naive i mean if that were the case we would, for example never have been forced out of the EU. By that i mean the government cannot - in the long run - thwart market forces. I do take the point that out of the two - reflate or recession / depression there is only one choice for Governments to make BUT they CANNOT do this adinfinitum, the view of most people on this site is the time when the music stops is upon us, and we are either at the begining of or about to enter the K-Winter..
Its not really a question of wishing for that - its just the reality of the situation. Clearly you have a different view - which you have put. This is fine and of course - speaking for myself - I am not dogmatic enough to say that you are wrong and I am right. Its good to see someone take another side and support their argument with a coherent view, Thanks.
Sunday, November 18, 2007 09:19PM" - the thread is : http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2007/11/blog-listen-to-the-experts-8158.php
So in a nutshell i agree 120% with the B/weather quote @ 9.
As for UT and P/E ratios.
"Many companies in emerging technologies have an 'E' of zero, and investors are generally comfortable with that (although I'm not a great fan of the concept)" . That was the concept for the tech bubble. No earnings and we know what happened next.
Even the ones that did survive were overvalued. Look at a proper tech company like Cisco.
As for the E i think there is more chance off Es contracting going forward - or at the very least not being in line with the (admittedly) forward looking optimism. So even if Es improve it wont be as good an improvement as expected and then the Es will start to fall away. Incidentially the end of this upmove will possibly coincide with "surprisingly" good figures from one of the big US companies, which will then be discovered to be some sort of sleight of hand a la (but not quite as bad as ) Enron. [thats my feeling].
Now we could discuss dividends (or reduction of em) but thats another story....
16. techieman said...
By the way when i said EU of course i meant EMS or the snake.
17. bellwether said...
All I wish the post at 9 was mine, it was however a quote from the article that I linked too!
UT true on the P/E's, my point like Techies, would be that we are not going to see the anticipated growth in E because the market is still failing to acknowledge the problems with the consumer led credit economy ie it cannot expand infintely, but must, if we are to sustain constant growth. The markets crashed mostly on feared bank armagedeon and with that averted the problem in their view is fixed.
18. flashman said...
I often wonder whether people actually read the links provide by posters or just skim/guess the content and pile in with their comments. Bellwethers post was lifted wholesale from the link he provided at the start of his post. I suppose, the lack of speech marks caused people to assume that the words belonged to bellwether but a quick click on the link he provided would have dispelled that notion. "Bubble epoque" is a pretty phrase but it was not coined by bellwether (or the author of the linked piece-it's been around for a while).
I don't want to sound curmudgeonly but the linked article is entirely devoid of 'meat' and substance. It lurches from sound bite to sound bite and fails to qualify or quantify its assumptions. This article is no worse than any other of its type but it should be taken in the context of 'entertainment'. These articles are short because they have to be. The target market is the keen amateur who has a bent towards a particular outcome and they don't want to be confronted by a long winded academic piece that is robust enough to withstand a peer review. Economics as entertainment is a fairly new concept and it serves the purpose of bringing more people to the economic table. However, it has a serious downside, which is that many of its readers do not know that it is only entertainment. Unfortunately this can cause economic 'newbies' to become emotionally attached to views that are often not actually held by the author. Some readers even become a bit 'football fan' in that they develop irrational hatreds of the other side. News that suits their cause is met with a 'its all got quiet over there' and news that contradicts is angrily dismissed with a 'your gonna get your fuccing head kicked in'
The only way to get a handle on things is to grind through serious peer reviewed work and even more importantly read work that represents an opinion that contradicts your own opinion. Unfortunately most of this work has to be paid for but ultimately, you get what you pay for.
19. flashman said...
my post crossed with post 16
20. uncle tom said...
"entirely devoid of 'meat' and substance. It lurches from sound bite to sound bite and fails to qualify or quantify its assumptions"
Flashman - Agree. When I encounter pieces like that, I start to have serious doubts about the veracity of the content - and move on..
"curmudgeonly"
- Now there's a grand word you don't very often see these days..:)
21. flashman said...
thanks uncle tom: I was worried that I'd been a bit harsh (before first coffee)
22. techieman said...
Flash i dont agree with you or UT in this case. I am sure many articles do curve fit to the result they want. However having said that the witer of the piece may or may not have done all the homework, but what you are seeing is just a sound-bite argument because the report is aimed at its readership (as you say). Also B/weather doesnt quote the whole article just a piece of it which probably resonates most with the "readership" here.
If you disagree with the views thats fine but does it mean that the writer hasnt done the work? They might have or might not. But i do agree separating the wheat from the chaff - in all this stuff, and lets include our own inputs in that - must, be very difficult. At the end of the day its all speculation based on continuation of a prior trend or the reversal of it.... or is it?
23. bellwether said...
Flash I don't agree with the notion that rigour is as necessary in the economic sphere as it is in say science.
The reason is that the variables have no certain outcome and are not regulated by rules, or rather sufficiently predicatable parameters.
I actually sense that common sense really does work better, artticles that reasonate do so for a reason. The article makes a simple point that if you grow your ecomonmy out of credit it must have an end point in the collapse of the credit bubble or the collapse of the currency in which the credit is written.
It really is no different from the notion that house prices have gotten out of whack with incomes, you don't need to structure a complex thesis to see this, and in fact complicating the point with theories can tend to make what was obvious opaque. Sometimes the truth is plain.
24. flashman said...
techie:
'If you disagree with the views thats fine but does it mean that the writer hasn't done the work'
You have the wrong end of the stick. Whether or not I agree with the post is irrelevant. My point is that we should avoid being overly swayed by unsubstantiated, unqualified, unquantified, sound-bite articles. My sub-point is that articles of this type are written for entertainment purposes and if economic 'newbies' want to get a proper handle on things, they should learn to recognise the difference.
"the writer of the piece may or may not have done all the homework".
That's my point. He doesn't substantiate anything, so how do we know that his views are not plucked from the ether?
"what you are seeing is just a sound-bite argument because the report is aimed at its readership (as you say)."
No, it's a sound-bite argument because it consists of nothing more that sound-bites.
When it comes down to it, I have an aversion to articles that would attract a withering response and a D grade if published in an academic context. This is not an academic context but people should still realise that the economics' business is not as straight forward, as is usually portrayed by 'these' articles
25. flashman said...
bellwether: “I actually sense that common sense really does work better”
So, in essence, you are saying that being an amateur gives you more insight that being a professional. I'd have to go a long way to find an argument as self-serving as that. It's also ridiculous bolloc*s.
Ask yourself something: Why are you so surprised and frustrated by the events of 2009? I'll give you a clue ….it certainly isn't because of your superior amateur insight.
26. will said...
Sounds like a MORI poll. Have you seen the people they interview on the streets?
27. flashman said...
Anyway, what’s with the standard issue bellwether-techieman tag-team? Which one of you is the fat bloke and which one of you wears the mask?
28. techieman said...
Blimey Flash you are in a provocative mood today! The overriding concern of an economics writer (for it to be read by the public) is
1. that the style is engaging and only 2. that the style is engaging 3. that the style is engaging 4. that the article resonates with the readership and lastly that the article is supportable by the numbers.
Lets face things there are as many interpretations of statistics as there are statistics. Isnt that why the governments GDP estimates have such a wide berth?
now i am not saying that having access to perfect data perfectly quickly doesnt help, and that analysis of that data isnt critical. But it really isnt the only way to skin the cat - in my view. I cant subscribe to the view that common sense works better, but im not 100% sure how less well it works. I think the bell curve is skewed toward your view but not as much as you might like to think. But then by definition i would think that wouldnt i!
Whoops I await the wrath of the flash with baited breath!
29. techieman said...
mine crossed with yours at 26. flash. Ouch that hurt!!! I do bow to your economic insights on this stuff. Its always interesting to read your views. In any case who is swayed by these views? In life you work things out for yourself. I for one have spent loads of time going against the mainstream view - WHEN ITS "FELT" RIGHT TO DO SO. This whole site is basically contrarian. The majority view particularly in the early days is that we will never have a HPC.
Whilst we are being provocative you never did express a view as to whether cable @ 1.70 was the top?
30. flashman said...
techie: True enough. How's that for wrath
I have always been astonished by the certainty of amateurs, with new toys. I am a professional and am nervous about every conclusion I reach
31. techieman said...
Glad you seem to have becalmed yourself! Now I suppose i sit somewhere between a pro and an amateur - more skewed to the amateur side though (or maybe even thats opinionated and i just have lucky hunches).
Personally - and as has been documentated here - I am not in the least bit surprised by the events this year, but does that make me less amateur? Does it make anyone who is more amateur? Personally i think Stillthinking is one of the best contributers here but you can feel his angst in every post. No one has all the answers do they. We just have different points of view. Some are equally as valid as mine - even though i might be totally in disagreement.
32. flashman said...
techie: my cross, crossed with your cross,
I am not interested in expressing a view as to whether cable or anything else has reached a top. It is anathema to how I work and it would constitute something of a busman’s holiday for me. I am an economist /analyst, not a trader. Yes, we execute trades for clients but they are the result of some heavy-duty mathematics and are not designed to make profits. I once indicated that we were bullish on sterling (at that time) but I did so in response to one of my favourite posters and really do not want to get involved with specific market predictions on this site. I wouldn't do it in my professional life, so i shouldn't do it here
33. techieman said...
Flash - fair enough! All i can say to you is that although this year has not been as good as last year in terms of trading results my gimp mask is still available and i have managed to keep it out of the pawn shop.... so far!
34. Smiling said...
good post/ find techie :-)
35. flashman said...
ah ha: so bellwether is the fat bloke
techie: you classify yourself as half amateur/half pro. Excuse me if I find that a bit hard to digest. You worked in the pits and have been a trader for almost a quarter of a century. You were not surprised by the events of this year because you are a professional. Subtract 25 years of experience and you would probably have been surprised.
36. flashman said...
btw: it was an obscure wrestling tag-team reference and not a gimp reference. Kendal Nagasaki wore the mask and the fat bloke was Shirley Crabtree. A gimp reference would have been far more offensive than intended
37. techieman said...
I didnt take offence. I can only say one thing to you to finish this thread Flash
"Easy Easy" ;-).
38. techieman said...
I think my point is that an amateur can be as or more right than a professional. But the amateur has no longevity because he makes cardinal sins like being wedded to his position (both actual and mental). As i have said many times i would rather be wrong more often than right if the winning trade values outpaced the losing ones. Maybe thats the definition of a professional - i really dont know.
Being right in trading isnt the major issue. Money management is, but being right on here IS the issue. I could trade more agressively and probably make alot more but thats outside my comfort zone these days. The percentage time i am right has gone up (at least when i initially take a trade ) but the number of trades has gone down considerably. Overall i make less but my hair has stopped falling out!
Each to their own. I remember your 8 rule post but i think that within that there are probably an infinite number of nuances.
39. techieman said...
Carrying on from your reference - just cause i have a touch of the verbals - "whose the DADDY"?
40. flashman said...
"I think my point is that an amateur can be as or more right than a professional. But the amateur has no longevity because he makes cardinal sins"
So, you are effectively saying that an amateur is too often, catastrophically wrong. Not a very good way of championing the amateur.
"As I have said many times I would rather be wrong more often than right if the winning trade values outpaced the losing ones. Maybe thats the definition of a professional - i really dont know. Being right in trading isnt the major issue. Money management is, but being right on here IS the issue. I could trade more agressively and probably make alot more but thats outside my comfort zone these days. The percentage time i am right has gone up (at least when i initially take a trade ) but the number of trades has gone down considerably. Overall i make less but my hair has stopped falling out!"
techie, you preach nuance but you have a tendency to see everything in trading terms, which might sometimes deny you access to nuance and comprehension. This exchange was kicked of by your erroneously perceived desire to defend bellwether. In your chivalrous rush, you misread my post and argued against points I never made.
Please don't tell me to "easy easy”. Robustly expressed views are always less aggressive than a more snide and supercilious technique. You should be more aware of your tendency to lecture on the purpose and character of this site. In fact, my first memory of this site is a lecture you gave me on "engaging”.
41. techieman said...
Easy Easy was a reference to the chants of Big Daddy (as was whose the Daddy) - you raised it after all!
I dont think I was championing anyone. All i said was im not sure how they (amateurs and pros) get defined, and postulated a view.
I am not preaching nuance. I meant even in trading terms an 8 point rule can end up being 200 points because of nuances within those 8 points, For example one of the 8 points was always have a stop. Yes absolutely, but the nuances come from when / where do you move that stop, do you trail it? do you OCO it against part of your position thats in profit? etc etc.
As for "have a tendency to see everything in trading terms, which might sometimes deny you access to nuance and comprehension" yes i accept that you have a point there, although you seem to be contradicting your compliment previously. I dont do that at all in real life though, but perhaps i dont have enough confidence in my point of view on here, as there are alot of clever folks - amateur or otherwise.
I cant remember that lecture. I think i did say "thanks for engaging" but i was being sincere. Easy to misconstrue someones thoughts here. Was i supporting B/weather? Not really @ 27 i say "I cant subscribe to the view that common sense works better". I did agree with the context of the article - but take your point that its not supported (although im not sure it needs to be in its (probably redacted) current form.
Perhaps i was a bit patronising and if thats the way it came across (much like your non reference to a gimp mask) then i apologise. All in all i am very glad that you are on this site - not least of all to keep me in check! And no that is a sincere compliment - obviously how you take it is your call.
42. bellwether said...
Flash actually you're not a professional in the generally understood sense of the word. You are trader, and I genuinely think you really struggle with that. You've got a decent intellect but struggle to use it because, unusually for a man, you perceive slight and insult everywhere. You actually remind me of a mate of mine, latent homosexual, who is always wanting to prove himself by getting into a "fight" with other dudes.
43. flashman said...
Bellwether: How quaint that you think only chartered accountants or surveyors are professionals. It’s not your most ludicrous argument but it’s certainly your most inanely pedantic. My job title is "Senior Analyst". I have two related degrees and a part ownership in my outfit, so I am pretty sure I am a professional. I don't struggle with being a called trader because I have never had that title in almost 25 years. I am not a carrot or a banana, so I wont struggle with you calling me that either.
When riled, you have a tendency to spout any nonsense that comes into your (I often suspect drunken) head. I have noticed that your posts become more illiterate and erratic at certain times of the day, which suggests depression or an alcohol problem. Maybe life has dealt you the wrong set of cards but that is not my fault or concern. Acting like a demented hillbilly will not help you get out of a hole.
As for the latent homosexual jibe, I suspect you mean incipient. Calling an ex-public schoolboy a homo is a bit ineffective as an insult. It usually causes great merriment.
However, as you undoubtedly meant it as a deeply cutting remark, I will respond…it is easy to throw insults from behind your keyboard but ultimately it is cowardly because you feel safe from reprisal. It marks you out as a rather snivelling, ineffectual man who can’t cope so over reacts in a grotesque manor (like that film where Joe Pesci shoots the waiter and in the process appals and alienates his gangster mates).
44. techieman said...
sighs! well sounds like im off the hook then!!
45. krustyatemyhamster said...
@41 flashy
deary deary deary me - can't speak for freud but I think that's what he would say.
46. flashman said...
techie: I enjoy a good argument (definitely a homo trait), but I am always ready to bury the hatchet immediately after it. You have never been on 'the hook' with me and there are no hard feelings (mind you, when I started blogging here, I was surprised that you joined in with the ‘falseman’ crap and I admit that I narrowed my eyes a bit). As you know, in my environment, you've got to be up for a bit of rough and tumble and you can't survive without a combatative streak. Sometimes I throw a bigger punch that is absolutely necessary but these days I try not to swing the first one.
Unfortunately, bellwether overstepped the mark by a country mile but I've reciprocated, so all is fair and forgotten
47. krustyatemyhamster said...
@flashman
Erm, on your first post on here:
"The pound has gone up against the Euro because Forex traders (I am one) perceive that the ECB is frozen with indecision, whereas, our own dear BOE is being proactive"
you described yourself as a trader. You're obviously a banana then.
48. techieman said...
Flash @44. I honestly cant remember that (i think it might be mistaken identity). If you can find it, i would try to honestly clarify.
49. flashman said...
Fair point krusty. Yes, I used to be a bit paranoid about identifying myself. My company hedges forex for our clients and we employ a small team of traders.
50. flashman said...
techie: I don't know how to search here but could it have been on my 8 point trading post or one of my rants on Elliot Wave? It really is no big deal.
51. techieman said...
flash - the 8 pointer is here : http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2009/03/blog-dont-get-fooled-by-the-stock-market-bounce-22461.php
I cant find any other - and yes the search facility here is crap!
52. bellwether said...
Fck Flash you gave me your job title and your qualifications, could you let your insecurities reek just a little bit more!
Anyway before I slide into the bottle, I wanted to say that in terms of content your posts are invariably excelIent, even on this thread there's the semblance of a point. Your problem (apart from incipinet homosexuality) is you tend to lose it when anyone challenges you. I've seen this repeatedly, and actually counselled you on it a few months back. I was pretty sure that when I posted @22, in a pretty calm and respectful manner, that you would react inappropriately.
Come on how about a bit of self awareness, track any of your contributions on site where you are in conflict with someone and honestly you will find it kicked off with you.
Krusty @ 45, have some respect or at least put a bit of craft in your put downs.
53. techieman said...
The funny thing is if we all met down the pub we would probably be involved in friendly banter – this medium tends to polarise…. Either that or I would have to take my http://www.boxingequipmentshop.com/acatalog/Lonsdale_Super_Pro_Abdo_Groin_Guard.html along :-).
54. bellwether said...
Techie it does tend to polarise, although bear in mind too there is a fair bit of alpha maleing going on. Anyway I'm suing the fcker over his suggestion @41 that surveyors are professionals.
55. krustyatemyhamster said...
Or accountants for that matter. I think the original definition of a profession had something to do with having to profess an oath - e.g. the hypocratic oath. I would tend to regard a profession these days as requiring a degree meeting the standards set by a professional body with further professional development recognised by the same body at a post-graduate level, e.g. medicine, law, teaching, engineering, but not accountants FFS.
Some debates tend to become more polarised than others, as some people like to get other peoples backs up.
56. flashman said...
bellwether: You insisted on giving me a new job title and ascribed emotions to my imaginary title. You have used this bizarre technique several times before, so I thought it best to be straightforward and give you my real title and credentials. Wtf else could I do when faced with such madness? It was kind off a Hitchcock moment. I did realise that you might want to use the insecurity tag but sometimes you've got to leave the 'o' level psychology at the door and dispense with the new age gibberish. We often see mirror images when dealing with our protagonists and I have to say that it has occurred to me on several occasions that you were insecure. I’m so full of myself that I occasionally levitate, so I will cherish your insecure homo tag. Top stuff.
You are lecturing me on losing it??? Your responses to my recent technology posts were borderline mental and your homo post was genuinely howling. I though your post was silly at @22 so I disagreed strongly. Anyone sensible who read my post and your response would judge me to have been a bit acerbic and you barking mad. Other posters have warned you about your tendency to abuse and I think you are unnecessarily unkind to the likes of str1 … so I think you should run a rule over yourself before counselling anyone else. Quite frankly what sort of person thinks it’s their place to counsel someone on a blog? Don’t take yourself so seriously and get some perspective. It’s only a blog
I have been challenged many, many times on this site by the likes of icarus and shipbuilder. I never ‘lose it’ with these posters because they behave in a gentlemanly manner and they never resort to personal abuse or madness. I showed great restraint when you started fabricating and abusing during my technology posts (what sort of person becomes unhinged by a technology post?) but sadly it seems to have left you permanently agitated
So where does that leave us:
I think you are mental
You think I am mental
I think you are a depressed drunk
You think I am a homo
Well, we both think that the others’ posts are of a high quality, so maybe I should send you a bottle of Scotch and you should send me a dildo. Maybe when you’re pissed and I’m sore, we can carry on debating the economy?
Believe it or not, I’ve quite enjoyed this. Don’t take anything to heart
All the best bellwether.
PS thanks for dealing with krusty.
57. krustyatemyhamster said...
I thought you were a big boy Mr Flashman Sir. I didn't realise you needed BW to do your bidding.
58. bellwether said...
pissed myself at your conclusion to post 54 Flash, funny as fck.
59. jack c said...
Well any non regulars reading this thread end to end as I just did will definitely think we are a bunch of fruitloops
Hilarious entertainment !
60. krustyatemyhamster said...
@jack c
I've just read it back (after a couple of beers) and it does start with some very good debate, especially from Uncle Tom, but around 15-20 posts it starts to deteriorate and I apologise for my part in that towards the end. There's something in my genes that can't help rising to flashman's attention seeking - if he can't get everyone to tell him how wonderful he is, he feels the need to provoke reactions to restore himself to the centre of attention, which is rather a shame really as he does have some interesting things to say. His abuse is hilarious though; mostly because he's so way off the mark (see posts 43 and 56), and fails to grasp the point most of the time and gets so riled by the fact that lay people may know more about what's going on than he perceives he knows.
61. jack c said...
@krustyatemyhamster - thanks for the reply
I never normally re-visit a thread from the preceeding day (and never from day's previous) but this one has me intruiged ! I suspect a bit of P taking at the centre of this one once the sensible debate offered by UT etc... subsided.
Kind regards - Jack