Thursday, Aug 27, 2009
Why rocketing house prices?
Press Association: UK population rises to 61 million
The UK population increased by a record amount last year to top 61 million for the first time, figures revealed. There were 408,000 more people living here in 2008, the Office for National Statistics said. That takes the total population to 61.4 million - an increase of more than two million over 2001. The increase was driven by a baby boom as fertility rates shot up to their highest rates in a generation. The increase is the highest since modern records began in 1972 and more than twice the increase of 2001 when the population rose by 201,000. The ONS confirmed the increase in population was the highest in nearly 50 years.
Posted by charlie white @ 12:31 PM (929 views) Add Comment
16 Comments
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1. 51ck-6-51x said...
The article link is wrong - here it is via Google.
I like the mistake "There were 408,000 more people living here in 2008, the Office for National Statistics said."
- "...than in 2008" maybe?
2. quiet guy said...
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20090827/tuk-uk-population-rises-to-61-million-6323e80.html
Of all the arguments to explain the house price boom in the decade leading to 2007, population growth is one of the weakest. By far the most important component in the boom was the easy credit supplied by central banks. In comparison, population growth was quite modest. I thought we'd buried this idea ages ago.
3. taffee said...
there are alot of people in india who would like to buy a house,doesn't mean prices are high....which they are not of course
4. paul said...
Welcome to hpc, charlie white!
Population grow is a specious and discredited argument for house price growth. If not, why are rents on residential property falling?
5. Smiling said...
@3- taffee
a typical HPC post here...
the author hasn't got the foggiest idea about house prices in India but thinks he seen a few slums on a documentry about Bombay, and suddendly feels he is an expert on this- rather sad really!
6. phdinbubbles said...
The fevered china shop atmosphere of 2007 seems to be returning round here.
7. Kp said...
taffee,
have u seen the price of houses in india recently? I have seen them rocket by 300% in the last 5 years. People in india firstly want food, then clothes and then house after that.
8. c'mon correction said...
If there were 791,000 babies born last year, why has the population only gone up 408,000? Does that suggest we have net emigration of adults/ home buyers?
9. charlie brooker said...
@6 you have to taken deaths into account.
10. Kp said...
Has anyone heard of the baby boom era? It is what we are experiencing now. This means that families will have 1 more extra person to accomodate in their small flats. Question is how do we get more space to accomodate this tiny person?err.... Let me think they buy a bigger house. People will move out of necessity and thus the market for 3 or more bedroom houses will always be bouyant. The builders have stopped building new houses, creating artificial shortages in supply. I think if you see another 2 monthly rises in house prices, the rally will continue (full stop).
11. charlie brooker said...
Putting it down to population changes is confirmation bias at the most the most neolithic level, but it is indicative of Britain's addiction to 'the ends' and status and its revulsion of 'the means' and enterprise.
Funnily enough I just had a one-to-one chat with my local MP in the UK (Labour)and when I mentioned the economic crisis his groan of despair spoke volumes.
You carry on with your property boom.
12. Charlie White said...
It's true -- population growth is definitely not the only factor leading to extreme house price growth, and yes, wildfire lending did cause the huge bubble. However as more & more people need housing, it becomes more expensive. Also the current boom is largely being driven from the top down, by cash-rich buyers and not by mortgage seekers. Residential rents may have fallen because (for what will soon seem like a very brief period) so many people decided not to sell and to let instead, waiting for the inevitable rise. In some areas rents may still be falling because for the moment there may still be a glut of rentals on the market while owners wait for prices to rocket.
I've just been round to several local estate agents. It's already back to 2007 again, at least in terms of asking prices. Where will it go from here? Into outer-outer space? How long before the name of this website will have to be changed?
This whole thing is scary. Tragically we've learned absolutely nothing from what has happened. In a short time housing will be affordable only to those with tons of available cash. How do we deal with this? It's very, very scary and at some point it could lead to quite serious social unrest.
13. Agentimmo said...
Plenty of immigrants flowed into the UK in the 50s, 60, 70s from the colonies and Commonwealth. House prices didn't rocket then...........
This is VI clutching at straws at its best.
The crash is still on. THEY KNOW IT.
14. Smiling said...
@7 Charlie - 'you have to taken deaths into account.'
but this is HPC, can't we make it up as we go along?
15. Bajista said...
There may be 400k+ extra people, but sadly, all of them are unemployed
16. clockslinger said...
Fer f#*ks sake, not again. What does this have to do with house price increases? Only a builder with a house to sell can make tjhis connection. Why, then is it for example (as there's always a Japanese flavour to this site) that despite notable poulation density property prices in Tokyo not risen for the last fiftteen years? Declining population? Maybe, but it still makes Ingerland look quiet. Economic problems, yes, I think a bit more likely somehow and coming, over a similar period of time, to a country near us so. Why don't journalists write articles about the total dependency of the UK population on the supermarket controlled food chain and the need for a food security policy in the face of rising population? Maybe you can't cut and paste it so easily. Everything always relates to house price inflation. Not if spuds are a tenner a kilo.