Thursday, Aug 13, 2009
While the UK is still mired ...
BBC 'News': Why are France and Germany out of recession?
This article basically admits, in a very guarded way, that Britain is not out of recession because the financial sector is much bigger than France or Germany (yay we're number one at something!), we cannot afford to continue the fiscal stimulus that Europe will continue to get and we're far too much in debt. In other news last Tuesday on the BBC News website, houses are being undervalued according to the RICS.
Do keep paying your license fee, after all the BBC likes socialist taxation for their revenue and capitalist remuneration for the 'talent' that produces this stuff.
Posted by paul @ 11:45 PM (1066 views) Add Comment
13 Comments
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1. drewster said...
We're not only number one in finance, We're also #1 in Europe for teenage pregnancies, obesity, and alcoholic liver disease, and near the top for heart attacks, smoking rates, and infant mortality (really!). It must be true, the Daily Mail* told me so.
[*source: Britain 'sickest' country in Europe]
2. uncle tom said...
I would argue that a country is not really out of recession until the YoY GDP goes positive, or, at the very least; two straight quarters of growth.
Germany's YoY figure is still -5.9%, while France is -2.6%
Meanwhile, Lithuania's GDP has dropped by an incredible 12.3% in a single quarter, following a fall of 10.2% in Q1.
Italy is notable for having a slightly worse YoY figure (-6.0%) than the UK (-5.6%) despite coming off a very low base; while Poland has yet to experiance a recession.
Such diversity makes an utter mockery of the eu's aspiration for 'ever closer union'
3. drewster said...
uncle tom,
Firstly, in the USA there are fairly wide divergences between states. Even the UK has the north/south divide. Does that make a mockery of our union?
Secondly, this is a global recession. If a country isn't brought down by its own debt, then it's dragged down by its trading partners' inability to access more debt. Nearly every country has lower GDP growth than last year (question: is anywhere in the world growing faster than last year?).
4. Tpbeta said...
Yes the obvious possibility is that they're out of recession because neither country had huge domestic property bubbles that wrecked the balance sheets of banks consumers and business. Not mentioned on the BBC of course
5. bellwether said...
Bit of protectionism as imports and exports down in G, bit of stimulus spending on cars and a bit of paying companies to keep employees on books. As UT says how can we even say a country is out of recession on the baiss of a blip up unconfirmed over time and subject to being revised down later. That said probably expect more "surprise" growth stories over the next few months, can't see these helping the markets much further as these and more look to be priced in.
6. Backingermany said...
uncle tom:
are you a crumpy old man by any chance? You sure sound like one!
7. hpwatcher said...
Why are France and Germany out of recession?
They don't have the debt that we in the UK does.
8. bellwether said...
Thanks hpw, your in depth analysis is the sort of thing that keeps this site interesting
9. brightonrentfodder said...
well I did hear this morning on the Radio 5 Business news that when one looks at the detail of this improvement in France and Germany's figures, there is the hand of Govt. money splattered all over it, so again it's a statistical lie.
10. george monsoon said...
belwether has hit the nail squarely on the head with this one.
The "recovery" seen in France and Germany is manufactured artificially, through public spending and incentives.
I would expect similar news to occur here in the coming months, and the BBC will be all over it with "RECESSION OVER", while in the background, the reality will be rising unemployment, interest rate rises and further pain to the taxpayer..
11. hpwatcher said...
Thanks hpw, your in depth analysis is the sort of thing that keeps this site interesting
No problem, you are always welcome.
12. Mappel said...
Some funny comments here. Looks like that some comments make a distinguish between good growth (private spending) and bad growth (public spending). Why is it bad when a state is pooling money (taxes) to invest in infrastructure etc.
Secondly a lot of people do forget that one of the biggest driver of British growth in the past was obviously the finance industry (is that good growth???) and create public jobs......
13. Bearorbull said...
with regards to the comment:
"the BBC likes socialist taxation for their revenue and capitalist remuneration for the 'talent' that produces this stuff."
Taxation isn't inherently Socialist. Taxation existed long before Marxism, Communism, Anarchism or the many other forms of Socialism were conceived. Just as the State isn't inherently Socialist. The State existed long before Socialism.
The process of using taxes to shore up an institution that attempts to protect the Status Quo & maintain the rule of privileged & property owning elites, is inherently counter-Socialist, just as implementing Social reform for the very same reasons is.
In fact, Capitalism, in practise, is the process of Socializing costs (through taxation) & privatizing profits.