Sunday, Aug 16, 2009
Stay Put and Rent
Property Times: Home Economics: Market recovery is a false dawn
An odd piece for the times by Hometrack's Director of Research
"Scratch beneath the surface of the headlines and it quickly becomes apparent that the so-called recovery is being driven by increased activity of exceptionally low volumes and by those looking to trade up the ladder — from a three to a four-bedroom house, for example — rather than those struggling to get onto it.
The jury is out as to whether further price falls are needed to reconnect the bottom rung ...... first-time buyers shouldn’t be panicked into jumping out of the rental market and into owner-occupation "
Posted by sybil13 @ 07:44 AM (1037 views) Add Comment
6 Comments
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1. fubar said...
Bloody hell. That's Bearish - and reassuring. All of the bear baiting bulls have been making me examine my position extremely closely recently. Particularly the accusation of only being able to hear the bad news while dismissing the so called 'good' news of price rises. This is a fairly simple article but it does seem to agree with the facts (and my own feeling) the last paragraph seems slightly odd though, misplaced even;
Welcome to rabbit-hutch Britain. New-build homes do not have enough space for basic everyday needs, according to a study published last week by the Commission for Architecture and the Built Environment (CABE). More than a third of people in homes built between 2003 and 2006 said that they did not have enough space for basic cooking appliances, and more than half claimed not to have enough storage space.
Richard Donnell is director of research at Hometrack, the housing analyst
2. paul said...
Note that Home Economics is David Smith's regular column.
Also note that this author has parodied Smithy's format, with a 'go figure' section.
Tee hee.
3. nomad said...
It seems to me that the next two/three months are critical. If we don't get signs that prices are still heading substantially down potential sellers will be encouraged to hang on longer, taking us into the next seasonal uplift next Spring. Thereby enabling Nulabour to go into an election claiming that prices are stabilised and recovery is "already happening". We will then be waiting for a new government's policies before seeing which way house prices will go - Autumn 2010.
I still expect some further sustainance for the absolutely crucial housing market, by this government, unless they feel they have done enough already.
4. mark wadsworth said...
I've analysed Nationwide's quarterly house prices, not adjusted for inflation or seasonally adjusted, from 1953 - 2008, by adding up prices for every year for Q1, Q2 etc. (so I end up with a block 4 rows down and 55 columns across)
Overall, the average increase, compared to previous quarter are:
Q1 - 1.5%
Q2 - 3.7%
Q3 - 2.2%
Q4 - 1.0%
So yes, the traditional view that there is a 'Spring Bounce' is perfectly founded in fact. Adjusted for inflation, prices usually fall in Q4 and Q1. Inflation is currently very low, I think.
5. uncle tom said...
Did The Times pay this guy to write such a feeble piece?
If our Rupert thinks I'm willing to pay to read this sort of ramble, he's going to be disappointed...
6. Jayk said...
Mark, thanks for some real evidence amongst the torrent of uninformed and biased rubbish.
I should point out that I've just bought a house. Saw one the wife and I absolutely loved and we can afford the five-year fixed mortgage comfortably on just my wage. I really don't mind if it goes down in price; it's for living in, not profiting from, right? So what if it's worth 20% less in two years: we have a lovely home, a 150 foot garden and we are preparing to turn the smallest bedroom into a nursery.....