Thursday, Aug 27, 2009
Nationwide: +1.6% for August
BBC: House prices 'continue to rise'
"UK house prices rose again in August, increasing by 1.6% from July, the Nationwide has said.
The average price of a home is now £160,224, up from £158,871 in July, and following four monthly rises in a row.
While prices are still lower than last year, the annual rate of decline in property values slowed sharply to 2.7%, compared with July's 6.2% fall. "
Posted by phdinbubbles @ 07:16 AM (1833 views) Add Comment
30 Comments
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1. mrflibble said...
This has blown my prediction of a 0-1% rise out of the water, which now makes me very doubtful next months figures will be negative.
Still I should have expected it as everyone I speak to says the same; "there's never been a better time to buy," "prices will never be this low again," "If you don't buy now you'll miss the boat." God knows what is going to happen to these people when the interest rates start to rise.
Sorry gents, but Brown and the Media are winning, at least for now...
2. c'mon correction said...
The madness continues. Only in Britain - worst recession in over 50 years, worst levels of personal debt ever, worst levels of government debt ever outside of a world war, unemployment due to rise to highest level in decades, every house price affordability ratio you care to look at it's worst at any point in history bar 2007-08 and YET? - UK public now wants to offer more for crappy box houses than any other nation on earth!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
When will
THEYlearn?
Looks like I'm not buying til five years time at least. It does look like the UK will have another 'credit crunch' type event in the next 2-3 years though, nothing has been fixed.
3. phdinbubbles said...
4. c'mon correction said...
The madness continues. Only in Britain - worst recession in over 50 years, worst levels of personal debt ever, worst levels of government debt ever outside of a world war, unemployment due to rise to highest level in decades, every house price affordability ratio you care to look at it's worst at any point in history bar 2007-08 and YET? - UK public now wants to offer more for crappy box houses than any other nation on earth!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
When will THEY learn?
Looks like I'm not buying til five years time at least. It does look like the UK will have another 'credit crunch' type event in the next 2-3 years though, nothing has been fixed.
5. c'mon correction said...
6. paul said...
Keep watching and waiting.
The media (especially the BBC) have many interests in overbaking this spring bounce and my, are they using it.
The fundamentals are still looking remarkably weak though.
7. Poppins said...
Where do these morons get their stats from!!!!!!
8. phdinbubbles said...
We are indeed drifting into the arena of the unwell.
9. charlie brooker said...
I'm beginning to wonder just how subtle the 'buy' messages are now.
Yesterday I saw a "go out and yourself an expensive treat because you're worth it" type message - in a horoscope of all places.
That's a boom phrase alright, but was the wrtiter using it under orders?
Its all gone Scooby-Doo.
10. quiet guy said...
Another one for the property bulls and money pumpers. The trend on the graph looks very strong now :(
Quote from the Nationwide August press release (http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/review.htm):
'Low interest rates help to explain jump in prices …
“The exceptionally low level of interest rates offers some explanation for why house prices have not repeated the very sharp falls of 2008. There are two main channels through which the low level of interest rates has impacted the housing market. First, mortgage payments for existing homeowners – especially those with tracker or standard variable rate loans – have been reduced substantially. Before the MPC began cutting rates, the average interest and principal payment per mortgage holder represented about 38% of the average post-tax labour income. Following the steep cuts in base rate, this has fallen to just 28% of post-tax income, despite historically high levels of outstanding mortgage debt. The fall in debt servicing costs has meant that fewer homeowners are under immediate financial pressure to sell than might have been expected in a recessionary economic background with rising unemployment. Partly as a result, fewer second-hand properties have come onto the market than is normally the case in recessions, which has contributed to moving the balance of supply and demand more in favour of sellers over the course of 2009.'
Any guesses how long we're going to keep rates at less than 1%?
11. nomad said...
This dead cat is made of rubber.
12. hpwatcher said...
House prices are a KEY economic measurement for this government, they will do everything they can to make it look like prices are increasing.
13. phdinbubbles said...
@QG
"Any guesses how long we're going to keep rates at less than 1%?"
Wasn't economic growth from around the period 2001-2007 based on house prices rising about 15% pa - so I think they've got the balance about right in choosing interest rates to be where they are at the moment. House price rises are after all the powerhouse of the UK economy. I think I've entered the arena of the unwell. Help.
14. hpwatcher said...
the html on this thread is seriously screwed up.....
15. doomwatch said...
I think some chill pills need to be taken here. March-August has been a cash mugs rally.
This has got a BIG FAT W written all over it, just like the last crash. It really is a game of 2 halves.
16. alphabetzoo said...
Yes it may well be due to low interest rates. But they'll rise sharpish when the bond market collapses in a year or two.
17. jack c said...
alphabetzoo makes a very valid point here - well worth a look at this weeks Fundstrategy article to identify wider problems for the UK housing market (in the medium to long term)
www.fundstrategy.co.uk/cgi-bin/item.cgi?id=192092&d=11&h=24&f=254
the title is "The Fed faces new bond conundrum"
18. Natural Born Saver said...
History shows that there are short term rises in every previous housing crash and this one is no different. The problem this time round is that this Government will stop at nothing to keep prices artificially high. We are sleepwalking into a 10 year economic depression which will see house prices fall at least another 30%, just be patient!
19. techieman said...
c'mon correction - cmon close the bracket :-)
20. mystie010 said...
A friend of mine got sucked into buy to let. The only reason she is still afloat is because of low interest rates. If rates had not fallen then she would have lost the lost the lot. I wonder how many more people are in this situation? I refuse to believe that people can afford this madness. Also, we have an insider at our local estate agents. Apparently sellers expectations are rapidly rising but buyers are not having any of it; and what is actually being achieved is a far cry from what is being asked. Let house prices rise it will just put more and more people off, and when the real crash comes the UK won't know what has hit it!
21. mystie010 said...
I forgot to mention in my earlier post. I managed to get hold of a graph showing the number of people actually searching online for mortgage products and looking on mortgage comparison sites for mortgages. I'd love to post it but I don't know how, or even if I'm allowed due to copyright. However what I can tell you all is that the trend is firmly down month on month. Basically not as many people are looking online for mortgages as were at the beginning of the year and the trend really is down. This suggests to me that it's cash buyers out there and most people don't have an appetite for huge sums of debt (just like me) - so hang onto your hats guys I think it's going to be a bumpy ride but he who laughs last laughs longest!
22. Philip9134 said...
I dont supose that this house price rise has anything to do with the 1/2 billion or so injected into the ecconomy every day. My feeling is that uncle Gordon, has ordered as much money to be pumped into the market before the election. With the help of the Brown Broadcasting Company the house prices will be ramped up until April.
When Cameron takes over the intrest rate will have to go up due to a falling pound, along with a slowing down of QE. This will start the house market moving.
This is a rather sad idear but, I think that Labour want to show that under the Conservatives the ecconomy will contract. The election slogon for 2014 will be under a labour party "we did not bankrupt the country" .
23. growler said...
Clearly summer exchanges coming through before schools start
24. growler said...
25. mark wadsworth said...
I'll try and close that bold tag.
26. mrflibble said...
The Forex boyz are not buying this bullsh1t anymore either. Sterling is down on the day. Slowly but surely Brown is getting found out. That last QE announcement proved to all that the game is to flood the system with money in an attempt to sustain the unsustainable, namely the housing market. Let's face it here, we have no other industries left than house and burger flipping.
If this all goes pair shaped (IMF, debt default, gilt strike, etc) these people who have rushed in will end up with double digit mortgage rates and not a cat in hell's chance of keeping up with the repayments.
27. luckyjim said...
Next month will see the first year-on-year price rises since the crash began. Or prices 7% up from the bottom if you prefer. Either way, there are going to be some interesting headlines.
28. techieman said...
LuckyJim - good point! Now can one of you computer boffins sort out this bold tag?
29. 51ck-6-51x said...
techieman said, "Now can one of you computer boffins sort out this bold tag?"
- yeah. Download and install Firefox, the close @ 08:15 worked, it's just that Internet Explorer sucks.
30. techieman said...
666 have looked at it using chrome and you are right!