Sunday, Aug 02, 2009
Is the sentiment tide finally turning
Independent: Julian Knight: So house prices are up? Well, not in the real world
Worth considering the figures in the FT yesterday in relation to this article:
"Homeowners would be stupid to believe those house price rises were based on anything like a meaningful sample size. Over the periods covered by the indices, sale volumes were down by around 75 per cent, compared with the 10-year average – and down by 50 per cent on last summer. As former statistics software vendor Nick Hopkinson, now of Property Portfolio Rescue, put it: “Such an illiquid housing market makes looking at monthly price trends statistically meaningless.”
It is to be hoped that the article in the Independent today will be the start of a lot more articles speaking of 40% + falls again ........in other words a return to the REAL WORLD.
Posted by sybil13 @ 08:12 AM (559 views) Add Comment
2 Comments
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1. greenshootsandleaves said...
Thank you sybil13 and thank you, Julian Knight!
A 'The worst may not be over' article is needed every now and then, to dent the rampers' increasing boldness and prevent them from adding an 'everyone now says so' to their claims of greenshoots sightings.
Re '(...) other asset classes such as savings and shares have been doing badly, which makes property, at least in part, a comparatively attractive investment. But even this is changing now we have seen a modest bull run on shares, so who is to say that investors won't go for equities, not property?', can it ever be a straightforward choice between the two? With BTL, for instance, rising unemployment is bound to add to the risk of seeing tenants default, and leniency on the repossession front has, rightly, been more than matched by leniency on evictions.
2. p. doff said...
'Nick Hopkinson, now of Property Portfolio Rescue'
I suspect Property Portfolio Rescue think the market is at or near bottom and are hoping to profit from buying cheap from distressed owners. Whether they are calling it right is a matter for debate but wouldn't you say they have a vested interest in talking the market down at the moment? They will no doubt be talking the market up when they come to dispose of these properties.