Wednesday, Aug 12, 2009
HPC founder discusses Northern Ireland
4NI.co.uk: House Prices Fall 'To Continue'
According to an expert who predicted the 'crash' of two years ago, NI property prices have further to fall. Jonathan Davis, a financial planner based in the City of London, told the Belfast News Letter last night that property here remained severely over-valued in relation to incomes, and that buyers should be "wary of talk of green shoots". But the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), who report "increasing stabilisation in house prices", cautioned against "alarming predictions" of major price falls.
Posted by quiet guy @ 08:34 AM (620 views) Add Comment
8 Comments
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1. growler said...
Of the dramatic fall JD had predicted.... NI housing minister: "nobody knows, but I think his prediction is a bit pessimistic"
Sounds very guarded to me. "bit" could be within a few points.
So far, JD has been a bit more right than wrong!
2. mrflibble said...
The graph of the NI crash is quite spectacular. I suspect the rest of the UK will experience much of the same, just over a longer period of time., at least I hope so, as we desperately need at least 40% off these crazy prices.
3. luckyjim said...
"So far, JD has been a bit more right than wrong!"
He has been wrong for four years out of the last five. If prices don't finish down in 2009 that will be 5 years out of 6.
Hardly an 'expert'.
4. growler said...
@3.
From the outset, JD has said that we're in for a shock. That was before the crash/shock and the unplanned events by Broon to try and stop it - which noones crystal ball coudl have predicted. To criticise on not meeting the exact number is missing the point.
5. Jayk said...
Exact numbers?! JD said year after year that the crash was just about to happen. He was wrong in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and most of 2007. It took him five years to be "right" (sic) - and that's without arguing about whether a 15-20% drop in two years can be called a crash. He sold his property "at the top of the market" (ahem) years and years ago and rented instead, believing that he'd made a genius decision, then duly watched prices nearly double.
It's like someone buying an investment property today and saying that prices are going to go through the roof, thus justifying the purchase. Then, in 2015, after five or six years of negative equity and when the house is finally worth more than he paid for it, strutting around saying "See! I told you so!".
In fact, I have just bought a house - to live in not profit from, but from today I am going to claim the crash is over, prices are on the way up, and the boom is back. And, when that eventually does happen sometime in the middle or latter part of the next decade, you can all exalt me as a prescient genius who saw the future.
6. Another_pleb said...
@ growler
Tom McClelland isn't the housing minister. He's an estate agent who sometimes wears his RICS local spokesman hat. A V.I. squared if you will. He's mostly found on the Belfast Telegraph's property pages waving his (metaphorical) pom-poms and talking about green shoots. The 4NI article is from the Belfast Newsletter which consistently follows a much more sensible line than the BT on property matters.
7. financial planner said...
JD did NOT found this website.
8. quiet guy said...
@financial planner
Apologies. I seem to have picked up the wrong idea somewhere along the way. Thanks for pointing that out.