Wednesday, Aug 05, 2009
House price rising will be soon over.
BBC News: Are house prices now on the rise?
The recent pick up in prices has been totally illusory, transient, temporary. The number of properties for sale is about to explode. The number of properties on the market is rising rapidly and buy-to-letters are in a dreadful state.
Posted by hpcuk08 @ 09:07 AM (1709 views) Add Comment
18 Comments
- If you do not have an admin password leave the password field blank.
- If you would like to request a password allowing you to add comments and blog news articles without needing each one approved manually, send an e-mail to the webmaster.
- Your email address is required so we can verify that the comment is genuine. It will not be posted anywhere on the site, will be stored confidentially by us and never given out to any third party.
- Please note that any viewpoints published here as comments are user's views and not the views of HousePriceCrash.co.uk.
- Please adhere to the Guidelines
1. nomad said...
Is this "HPC" difficult to assess because of the city centre flat developments that have been thrown up in recent years?
These properties that nobody now wants have crashed by 50/60%, maybe more, thus grossly distorting the market as a whole. It means that falls in regular housing, say between £150,000 and £350,000 have, so far, been very small.
We sold in late 2007 and, looking at similar houses in the area where we lived - Solihull in West Mids - the fall to now is 12%. This IMO means there is still a cliff to fall off and sellers should not wait.
2. cyril said...
According to the article - if you ignore the seasonal adjustment, prices have gone up during the spring/summer. D'oh!
3. uncle tom said...
"This IMO means there is still a cliff to fall off and sellers should not wait"
nomad - agreed.
There are a lot of people sitting on empty property, waiting for the market to rebound; and recent news stories will probably persuade them to wait a little longer.
However, I doubt that there is much steam left in this little rally, and when prices are seen to be dipping again, we could see a market that is not that starved of stock moving into gross over-supply.
The bottom line is that far too many FTB's simply can't afford to play, while the economy lacks the genesis of a revival.
Hopefully the BOE will conclude that higher interest rates are a lesser evil than running the risk of hyper-inflation. An upward trend on rates would give the property market an abrupt reality check.
4. Mattsie said...
Buy-to-letters in a dreadful state? Where on earth do you get your information from? Life has never been better for me. Rents have gone up on my flats and interest rates are at an all-time low. And believe me, I'm not the only buy-to-letter who's raking it in at the moment. I know you're willing the housing- and in particular the buy-to-let market to collapse in a big way, but I'm afraid the reality out there is very different for many investors!
5. bidin'matime said...
Good to see Jonathon quoted - at least the piece is balanced.
6. 51ck-6-51x said...
Yes UT, let's see what happens at midday on Thursday. ( most likely outcome IMO is no change to base, no more QE - i.e. a "let's wait and see / don't rock the boat" strategy. )
Anyway transactions are needed to instantly discover prices, but rejected offers may have an effect. I have so far made four offers on two properties during the crash and all have been rejected as not near enough to asking [ the highest was 13% below, and was a very good offer IMO, obviously they do not /need/ to sell OR they are very greedy - maybe because after four months of no offers they thought this meant there was a pick up, who knows! The lowest was 36% below a stupid asking. ], hopefully there are others doing the same and the agencies will soon start ( or have already started ) to realise that sellers have over-inflated expectations and that they must do their job and adjust those expectations ( after all they profit from sales, not rejected offers ).
If there is pent-up-supply of course the release of it would cause falls ( just as the pent-up-demand has during the first half of 09 ) - especially if there are forced sales within the reluctant landlord sector, since the market for those properties will be pretty restricted.
A further observation is that during a forced sale induced downturn the Hali-wide indecies ( those base on mortgage data ) will start to lag the market.
7. 51ck-6-51x said...
^^ just as the pent-up-demand has *caused rises* during the first half of 09
8. mrflibble said...
@3. uncle tom
Hope you are right about the supply of housing stock. If we can get enough of the herd running for the exits then we can finally have a crash, so far all we've had is a picnic in the park. The market desperately needs fear, and enough of it to make people believe that property is a bad bet.
9. alan said...
How can people afford a price rise? Folk we know are being refused a mortgage for trivial reasons. Banks don't want to lend, I think...
"The worst is over and house prices are rising again", say the BBC (nice bit of ramping). Perhaps the Banks know what is coming and are taking precautions.....
"Jonathan Davis....... says the recent pick up in prices has been "totally illusory, transient, temporary" and reckons that the number of properties for sale is about to explode".
10. Saps said...
Tale of two peoples:
rampant, endemic corruption and larceny in Britain’s rulers and moneymen and yet the average Brit couldn’t give a flying fornication.
one, insignificant German bint minister abuses her position, as bints do, by taking her state car on holiday, costing the country a few €k max. and the massive reaction deals a deathblow to any chances of her party winning the September general election:
Support for Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s Social Democrats, known as the SPD, dropped three percentage points to 20 percent, the weekly poll for Stern magazine showed today. The party suffered from negative media coverage of Health Minister Ulla Schmidt’s decision to take her official chauffeur-driven Mercedes on a Spanish vacation, Stern said.
“This scandal revived all the reservations about the SPD that were already there – incompetence and being out of touch with voters,” Manfred Guellner, Forsa head, told Stern.
As long as the UK ruling elite can print enough pounds to support their criminal masters in the City, £1.5 trillion to date, and maintain their housing investments through media’s pushing house prices the truly dreadful, braindead sheep in Britain will not give a toss.
Britain is not gone; the people have gone. Many are not functioning human beings. Amoral consuming units and others psychotically deluded thinking the country and the world owe them a work-free livelihood from speculation due to their special British imperial nature.
11. uncle tom said...
I am pretty certain that the BOE will leave rates on hold for some time, and on QE I expect vague language about 'keeping things under review'.
As of July 30th, they had actually slightly exceeded the £125bn previously indicated, and I'm not sure if they have continued printing over the last week or not.
Stopping and then re-starting might prove more problematic than carrying on - a second round would damage confidence in sterling, especially if the US gets its GDP figures back in the black, while we remain in the red..
12. eyeoftheweasel said...
I think part of the reason the banks don't want to lend is that they know that houses are still grossly overpriced. When home prices fall to more realistic levels then they will probably be happier to lend, if they can also charge an interest rate that sees them making a reasonable profit (which is another story).
By the way, I'm not a banker.
13. devo said...
9. uncle tom said... especially if the US gets its GDP figures back in the black
Viewing the USA's economic situation through rose-tinted spectacles is distorting your perception of how this Depression is unfolding.
14. monty032 said...
An outstanding comment from Jonathan Davis at the end of the article: "You can't have 15 years of house price rises ending in a bubble, along with the worst financial crash since the 1930s, and a property crash lasting just a year and a half," he says. After the 1989 boom, house prices fell or were flat for the next seven years. After a much larger and longer-lived boom to 2007, anyone who thinks that the recent correction is all we're going to get is frankly silly.
15. uncle tom said...
Devo,
You don't need rose-tinted specs to work out that while the Yanks are in an economic mess, we are in a much deeper mess..
..anyway, I'm about to see for myself - I'm jetting off to Chicago on Friday; will drop in on some of my friends in the mid-west before doing my annual stint as a competition judge - this year in Mason City Iowa..
16. bidin'matime said...
Tom - dont leave us in suspense - what is the competition?
17. happy mondays said...
Naked Lesbian Rodeo Ut ? or maybe Alligator wrestling or even best dressed white supremacy member..Lol
18. uncle tom said...
http://www.pgi.org/competition.aspx