Friday, Aug 28, 2009
A new [false] measure of economic success.....
BBC: House prices rise most in 5 years
''House prices in England and Wales rose by 1.7% in July compared with June - the biggest monthly leap in value since July 2004, the Land Registry said.''
Posted by hpwatcher @ 11:29 AM (4420 views) Add Comment
75 Comments
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1. hpwatcher said...
This bit is interesting...
''But prices were still 11.7% lower in July than they were in the same month a year earlier and sales were also down. ''
These wide swings are probably due to reduced volume.
2. paul said...
This is an outright lie:
This has proved to be bad news for tenants, who have seen rent levels rise again as former "reluctant landlords" put their homes back on the market.
Increased supply of rental property = increased rental prices?
I don't think so.
3. paul said...
In addition, the BBC has concentrated on the meaningless MoM figure while ignoring the more important YoY drop of 11.7%.
State propaganda at its most risible.
4. phdinbubbles said...
Suckers.
5. will said...
Nothing new in this data, as Nationwide and Halifax told us about the July rise months ago, but it makes a good headline for the government.
6. mark wadsworth said...
Paul, I think they mean "former reluctant landlords put their houses up for sale". In this post-ironic world of ours "market" can only mean one thing - the buying/selling market, not the rental market.
7. Smiling said...
jolly good show from Gordon and the gang
8. mrflibble said...
House prices follow unemployment you know, so it's up, up and away...
Best buy now before you miss the boat... That 1.7% monthly rise if sustained is the equivalent of earning over £40,000 gross per annum... Big money to be made in housing... Best act now before you get frozen out... Just one snag, all ponzi schemes requires an endless supply of greater fools, oh sorry I forgot, this is Treasure Island we live, there is an endless supply...
9. Smiling said...
game, set and match
10. phdinbubbles said...
"House price rise hits 5-year high"
They must have been smoking that green weed of recovery
11. Mnkybusiness said...
"Just one snag, all ponzi schemes requires an endless supply of greater fools, oh sorry I forgot, this is Treasure Island we live, there is an endless supply..."
The fools just need to be equally foolish to sustain prices and avoid bringing the house of cards crashing down. With that in mind let's not forget the fundamentals of the natural cycle which maintains the level of population: and hey presto, no crash!
12. dgj said...
People who compare the price of bread to the price of a car are deluded!
13. refusetobuy said...
People who compare the change in the price of bread to the change in the price of a car are deluded!
14. mrflibble said...
Now promoted to the top Business news of the day on the BBC.
I'm all ramped out...
15. Kp said...
woohoo!!! Auction properties bought 4 months ago look like a v good investment!! 60K up in 4 months, splendid!! You guys just talk pessimism. If you donot take risk, you do not make money but look at other people becoming rich.
16. mountain goat said...
"According to the Nationwide, the average price of a home is now £160,224"
If you think that stock markets have retraced nearly 50% of their fall from highs then house prices need to rise to £170,233 (peak April 07 £189,316, trough Jan 09 £151.151) to do the same retracement.
We need most people to think, "back to normal", to get the remaining bulls sucked in. Only then can the hpc resume.
17. shining wit said...
No banking crisis,
No HBOS or RBS being technically insolvent,
no business spending at a 43 year low,
no hundreds of billions spent proping up banks,
no government spending money like it's going out of fashion,
no massive buying of bad bank debt,
no massive rise in unemployment (75,000 a month at the last count),
no HBOS borrowing more money in 2007 than the Italian government,
no massive spending cuts on the horizon,
no evidence of MPs with their noses in the trough,
no need to worry about inflation,
no massive fraud with "self-cert" liar-loans,
no problem with immigration and it's impact on housing/benefits/schools etc.,
no difficulties buying an average house on average wages,
no difficulties finding 10-20% deposit for mortgages,
no shortage of first time buyers with loads of cash,
no recession,
certainly no depression!"
See absolutely nothing to worry about as property prices will soon be pushing 10-15% increases every year.
It's about time all of us stopped carping on about a property crash when we should be throwing caution to the wind and buying a vastly overvalued property because it's going to shoot up in price almost immediately!
What's that you say?...................We're just postponing the trouble till later when it will be much, much worse !
Poppycock, balderdash, stuff and nonsense. Now stop whinging and go and get yourselves into more debt...
And that's an order !
18. house said...
@7, mr fibble
Yes, there is an endless supply of ...!!!. I have no doubt of this in my mind. Properties are selling like hot cakes in Cornwall. Just saw a property on the RightMove website just on the market, a 3 bedroom terraced house - asking price £180000. Note this is an ordinary terrace house in the town with no parking space. This property is in West Cornwall. So beat that. Fools rally.
19. Twelver2 said...
I think some of you on here should accept the fact that house prices aren't going to drop by the up to 70% I've seen quoted by some wackos on this site. Flats have stopped selling, they're out of the equation now. You're not going to see decent 3/4/5 bed houses going down in value much more.
Accept it. The real crash was eighteen months ago. Then was the time to sell and now is the time to buy.
20. Kp said...
shining wit, your argument is flawed big time, seems like you have just come out with an economics degree!! Have you ever thought why the house prices have been going up in the last 3-4 months? If your theories were to be believed, then house prices should still be going down. The price rise is caused by one thing and that is shortage. Just not enough houses around and whatever you have in the market is all rubbish. The number of interested buyers have tripled in the last year. People have stopped playing the waiting game and it is do now or pay more.
21. techieman said...
MG @ 12 - you seen EWI new theorist? If not take a look (it wont take long!).
22. Smiling said...
love the way everyone at HPC towers tries to reassure eachother (but mostly themselves) on days like today (which is basically, most days) ...if it wasn't so funny it would be quite touching
23. mountain goat said...
Cheers TM, hot off the press.
24. bystander said...
interesting that only a few days ago I read an article whereby a respected investor was calling the middle of this new bull cycle because he couldn't see any 'optimism' or 'euphoria' in the markets which would signal the top or coming top of the bull market rally. Personally I have lost interest in the market as it has become increasingly obvious that the people who control them have and always will manipulate and little investors like myself win or lose at the whims of the big players, but even I can see that optimism is what is running this enormous rally and as it continues the euphoria is almost palpable. Are we near the top, before the next downward trend? Are the bears gathering? Have the big players now started to take up major short positions? Just one more spin of the volatility dice, just to cap off a profitable two years (for the banks). Any views on my ramblings??
25. need-a-crash said...
Come on guys, let's face it we're losing badly here! House prices ARE rising.
I know there's no logic to it, I know the country is supposed to be bankrupt, unemployment is rising, private sector wages are stagnating or being cut, bank lending is down and consumer debt is at an all time high... but the fact remains that very few people think house prices are over-valued. The homeowning majority and their elected representatives (ie. the government) will always protect their interests and don't give a stuff about us, or anyone under the age of c.35.
It was claimed the recession was unforeseable, obviously that was rubbish, but what was unforeseable was the level to which the government would go to protect house prices and we have to face facts that our interests and desire for affordable housing cannot compete with the HM Government or the BofE and the billions they are prepared to spend to support the wishes of the homeowning majority.
Perhaps emigration is the only hope or just resign yourself to a life of renting; after all most people on here harp on as though it's not so bad to rent anyway, so what's the problem?
26. techieman said...
bystander - clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right?
27. techieman said...
Need a crash - this might help.
http://www.elliottwave.com/single-issues/ff/0908FF_Worst_is_Over_Optimism_Sets_Up_Volatile_Third_Wave_Surprise.aspx?code=cg
I think we are close but no cigar yet....
28. bystander said...
Agreed techieman. Whats it like in the hallowed financial houses and trading rooms of the City these days, optimistic, euphoric???? Most of the people I speak to both in finance and industry hold a contrarian view to the bullish sentiment being forced down our throats currently. Why can't our society be more like the Japanese, where, even with an election in two days they can still come out with truthful figures regarding unemployment? Can you imaging GB and his mob allowing that??
29. techieman said...
more questions than answers bystander. I am as wise as you! Not in the City location wise but a small bedroom with a PC with a big screen. I hope its a Dr. Hook market ...gives us "a little bit more". Im trying to finesse (wait for a bit more retracement from the first move down) a short in Sterling and Silver. Should that be Sterling Silver? And the stock markets am hoping for a bit more upside to squeeze out a few more bears first. And everyone here knows my view on the HPC.
Of course we have a long weekend coming up - which makes it all a bit tricky.....
30. techieman said...
When i say of course i mean its always the way that it might be the absolute best time to effect a position when its possible for it to scare the sh1t out of you with you being unable to do much. Also holiday volumes are normally unreliable. So all in all will probably relax and look again next week.... which might be too late (i dont think so for the stock markets by the way - none too sure about the others).
31. europeanbear said...
I find the housing rally very strange, and from the comfort of being an expat and unlikely ever to return to the UK it impinges little on me personally. I do have an interest in economics and this site is of great interest from that perspective. The housing martket is defying logic and I think it is due to a number of factors. But very low interest rates are part of the problem. This is allowing some people to hang on to their homes when they would normaly be repossessed and cash rich people see there is no point leaving thier money in the bank so best go out and buy a house. The fact that rents have not risen substantially for years and indeed have bene falling recently proves there is adequate amounts of housing stock. There is also the in built mentality that buying must be best (even if it is substantially more expensive than renting), and maybe even bad landlords tend to push people into buying. And of course there is cash from mum and dad helping some people onto the housing ladder. Also in this slump, because of the changes in the law (particularly the 1988 introduction of assured short term tennacies), means that the option to rent out a house that you cannot sell at the price you want and "wait it out" is a serious option for many. I left the UK nearly 20 years ago and have lived in several countries since and both rented and brought property. I always do what ever is cheapest for the sq meters and living style. In the unlikely event of returning to the UK, there are plenty of rentals and I would not touch a purchase with a barge pole - risk of high interest rates, high transactions costs (eg stamp duty) to name a few puts the discounted cost of renting much much lower. And whilst that is true, there is no long term profit for landlords who enter the market at the moment. The economic costs always level out in the end which means HPC must continue, but how long this dead cat bounce continues (or even turns into another mini boom) is anyone's guess. It certainly has surprised me, but I still find it difficult to believe that it can continue for long. The question is Where is the money coming from?
banks lending - nope they are all zombie and desperately protecting their balance sheets, only lending at reasonable rates to those with huge deposits.
Vibrant economy with soaring earnings - nope unemployment is soaring, wages are static or falling....
Cash rich - possibly - some who profited from the boom and coming back into the market
Bank of mum and dad - certainly, but there are few first time buyers....
Bad statistics - quite possibly. Qulaity houses (at higher prices) maybe make up a greater proportion at the moment, what we need to see repoprted by the land registry are medain prices.....
bankers bonuses - tehy are back, but nevertheless there are still fewer of them, even if the individual bonuses are high
From an economic perspective this rally is interesting, and if it turns out NOT to be a dead cat bounce it will be something new in economics!!!!!
32. hpwatcher said...
I find the housing rally very strange
I don't find it strange at all. It's a debt fueled boom heading into a general election. A number of economists have predicted it.
33. timmy t said...
Keep the faith - if this wasn't happening then we wouldn't be in the middle of a bull-trap, so we wouldn't have a classic asset bubble on our hands. But it is, so we are, and we do. This time next year Rodney, we'll be laughing.
34. flashman said...
"if it turns out NOT to be a dead cat bounce it will be something new in economics!!!!!"
There are many examples of economic miracles where countries rise from the ashes. The old Rhodesia is a great example. They were already on their knees when the world tightened the noose with embargos and sanctions. They defied the odds and produced one on the greatest economic come backs in history. It used to be billed as such in economics textbooks but seems to have been removed now (probably because it is politically sensitive to in any way praise the old regime). They eventually got battered down again by western funded liberators but that is beside the point.
Japan and Germany also rose from the ashes. They were given aid and stimulus by a heavily indebted US government but that is no so different to today’s scenario. There certainly is plenty of aid and stimulus floating about now. There are many more obscure examples, such as the Brazilian economic miracle that followed the1964 revolution and the Soviet industrialisation miracle of the early 30's that sustained them in WW2.
It is not inconceivable that the world will stagger and stumble into a slow recovery that will eventually turn into a boom. The stock markets reflect this possibility (it is only a possibility).
I am not claiming that this will happen. I really don’t know… but it is possible
35. Andy said...
Show me that the average price per square foot (or at least per bedroom) is rising on a region-by-region basis and I'll believe that average house values are rising. Show me that the average prices of houses being sold is rising and I'll just suspect that the bottom of the market has frozen up and that the north of the country is being hit hardest by the recession.
36. Greenstar said...
i think this time next year you will be very sad timmy t
37. mrflibble said...
"I don't find it strange at all. It's a debt fuelled boom heading into a general election. A number of economists have predicted it."
As europeanbear ask; "Where is the money coming from?"
Houses are far from cheap, money is scarce and employment is getting very tight indeed. If it is cash rich buyers there are a lot of them suddenly buying houses. Still I guess one does not want to miss the boat *lol*
38. luckyjim said...
Where is the money coming from ? Earlier this week it was reported that new mortgage lending is up 77% on this time last year. People are borrowing money to buy houses. Mystery solved.
39. mark wadsworth said...
@ HPWatcher "A new [false] measure of economic success....." That appears to be the ONLY measure of economic success and has been for years.
@ Need-a-crash #18, agreed, I am feeling a bit daft. But I shall keep the faith nonetheless.
@ Flashman #27, stop it, you are worrying me now ...
40. mystie010 said...
My friend is only managing to hang onto her buy to lets by a whisker because interest rates are now so low. So as soon as they rise I would give her around 4 months before she is forced to sell. If this is typical for a large portion of the UK then we are just scratching the surface. I'm starting to think less about waiting for prices to come down and instead, thinking of ways to achieve my aim of home ownership at a sensible price. How about we all team up together in our respective areas, buy land together and build our own houses at a sensible price - now there's an idea. Instead of being at the mercy of the clowns runnning the country lets get off our bums and do something? Because as I always say the government is taking us for mugs. Lets stop being so whingey and become more proactive?? Just a thought :-) I'm in South Devon if anyone is intersted??
41. icarus said...
Flashman @27 - and two years ago you could have added Ireland and Iceland LOL
42. techieman said...
. techieman said...
"Rightmove said yesterday that there had been a “major U-turn” in sentiment, with more than 3/4 [78%] of survey respondents believing that the bottom of the UK market had been reached. In January, 66% believed prices would continue to fall."
Good! The higher the sentiment that prices will rise, its all back to normal etc etc the better. Hopefully after this months Nationwide figures the % who think it will increase will go up further. The majority were wrong in January and they will be (eventually) proved wrong now.
Thursday, August 27, 2009 08:06AM"
Or will they? :-). And thats the rub isnt it? Perhaps we are all wrong and perhaps the falls until earlier this year were the retracement! We will only know for sure in the future. And if so wont it be embarrassing with the bulls dancing on our heads as we lie coughing and spluttering on the ground.
But my money (and I assume yours too flash - unless you have liquidated your housing shorts???) is still on the bear side. IT is typical that everyone starts to question. If they are questioning here imagine how the outside world must be reacting. If you have a big fall you are likely to have a sharp rally against that fall. Look at most markets that have had a massive spike up and you will see what i mean.
Flash have i missed some nuances?
43. martin said...
mystie010
I'll second that, North West for me.
44. techieman said...
Martin and mystie010 its the LAND thats the problem! House prices arent based on the cost of building they are the cost of builing ON LAND. Mark W has prviosuly posted a cool graphic showing component part - e.g. the cost of bricks and relative cost of the land.... Mark?
45. bellwether said...
I genuinely wouldn't mind an economic boom, and really who here would, simply being wrong would surely be better than years of general decline, increased poverty and rising iunemployment, things which are only good as some king of revenge/equilisation fantasy. That said in relation to the UK at least it does not look hopeful. I also wonder if miracle comebacks might be more lilkely. actually might even be quite common once things reach a nadir. Maybe that's my issue that this is not being allowed to happen, we are trying to get back to 2005 again even though we know how that story ends
46. mystie010 said...
Post 35 techieman Yes I agree the price of land is currently a problem, but I feel sure that with some collective buying power we could pull it off. I feel an ITV/C4 documentary coming on: "How HPCers took on the market and won!" or "How people power worked to take on the big building giants." Quick somebody ring Sarah :-)
47. mrflibble said...
@mystie010
I like your sentiment. I'd like to buy a plot of land with some like-minded people and form a proper community on it, the sort of community where people get together and do things for the good of the community and people within it. I'm bored of this culture of keeping up with the Joneses and fecking over the next guy.
Life in the UK seems to be a constant competition where people are prepared to take bigger and bigger risks just to get a little bit further ahead. If I had a fiver for each time I saw some idiot risk their life and mine to get two cars ahead I'd be retiring in the sun right now. Same goes for housing, bigger and bigger risks were taken just to own a place. The trouble is we are all caught up with these morons whether we like it or not. Oddly enough I don't want to pay quarter of a million pounds for a 3-bed Semi in Basingstoke.
48. luckyjim said...
mystie10
I looked at self build very closely earlier this year. The problem is land owners are under even less pressure to sell than home owners and are quite happy to wait for the market to recover. Often they've owned the land for many years, before it had planning permission. In contrast, developers with houses to sell really needed to shift those houses to clear off some of their debts. So house prices fell much more steeply than land prices.
It may be different for large parcels of land. I don't suppose developers are buying large plots at the moment.
49. flashman said...
techie: I am no longer short on housing but I still vehemently believe that there will be an HPC. I also don't believe we'll see an economic boom, but it is possible. My gut feel is that there is a circa 15% chance of an economic boom springing from this retracement.
50. Cinnamon said...
@ Mrflibble
Welcome to the human race. The vast majority of people are competitive and self interested. You won't be able to get away from it anywhere
On the general house price rally. It won't last - there is nothing to support it. The whole crash will result in the bottom 4/5th of the population permanantly having a lower standard of living. As population grows the poor have less power and loose out relatively to the rich - the whole credit crunch phenomenon is just the vehicle for this redistribution.
House prices in the lower part of the housing market will eventually take a dive and stay there. More expensive houses on the other hand may stay the same
51. flashman said...
icarus: yes, unfortunately the expression ‘economic miracle’ is bandied about too freely these days. It’s a bit like ‘celebrity’ and ‘world class’. It always annoyed me when Ireland declared themselves to be an economic miracle. Their 400 housing estates hardly matched Stalin’s industrial heroics
52. mark wadsworth said...
@ Techie comment 35, I posted my chart with explanations here.
@ Luckyjim comment 39, it is mathematically almost impossible for land values to fall faster than total property values.
53. Chilli said...
inflation.
That's what will happen next. The government can't up interest rates before the election anyway. We are printing money. The banks have just about re-capitalized and have less respect for their function in society than ever before. They will jump right back into it. The estate agents are still waiting in a wings for the second act. Business is fecked anyway as the consumer is stuffed, so effing them over isn't a big deal. What does the labour government know anyway? And a drop in the exchange rate will hurt the voting public less than a raise in interest rates.
The solution to this mess is Inflation.Far easier to steal from granny's savings and business profitability than be blamed for raising interest rates. The blame for the former is less direct than the latter.
54. titaniccaptain said...
There are "Tax payers" and "Nett Tax users" (Unemployed).....the latter are increasing in number.
This means at some point the whole caboodle will collapse due to reduced tax revenue....where will the money come from to pay for basic services within the public sector?......Relevance to house prices?.....if your a public sector worker try and pay a mortgage when your pay is cut or when you lose your job....try and get a mortgage when you have no job or when your pay has been cut.
I know I always break things down into simplistic terms but it just looks so simple to me.
If anyone thinks that the housing market can regain an upward trend without workers on average wage STILL locked out of the housing market then they are wrong....
So why are house prices rising?.......Cash rich and that means anyone who can afford a deposit......I can tell you all now that most an average wage haven't got a look in at getting a mortgage should they want one because to save for a mortgage for an averagely priced house is impossible.
The volumes are too low to take seriously.
55. alan said...
@TC,
Tax revenues are down because:
1. VAT was reduced.
2. Less tax from "juicy bank bonuses".
3. Reduced Stamp Duty as house sales values and volumes drop.
4. Companies going bankrupt don't pay tax.
I can't see how the UK tax take is likely to go up in the near future....whereas government spending (NHS, Education, Police etc) spirals upward. We must get to a point where we can't meet our obligations as a country sometime..?
56. phdinbubbles said...
@TC
In my simplistic head, the following factors have led to these reported increases in prices 1) shortage of houses on the market 2) certain sections of the public sector that have received inflation busting pay rises in recent years and have very secure jobs (and probably haven't realised yet that something drastic is going to have to be done with government spending), together with those still raking it in in the dear City 3) enough of the population (certainly the ones I speak to) seem to think things have bottomed out and normal service will be resumed shortly 4) financial naivety of large sections of population. A GP friend of mine fits 2-4 quite nicely on her own.
I've been having a look at how our beloved tabloids have been covering this, but even in the Daily Express there exists the following lines: "But economists have warned that the market still faces considerable obstacles due to continuing problems in the mortgage market and rising unemployment. Commentators have also said a sudden increase in the supply of homes for sale could trigger renewed price falls". Until recently the Express would have been championing house price rises without bothering to describe an opposing point of view, but I detect a new fear in the express; a fear that unemployed people maybe won't welcome news of rising house prices and will get pissed off and not buy the newspaper any more, or maybe they know prices will fall further and don't want to blamed as one of the rampers that helped blow the bubble. Newspapers exist to sell newspapers and I think those that work on them are slowly realising that even if they would like prices to rise because they own houses, their readers will get increasingly pissed off about hearing how it's supposedly good news. Things are turning slowly - give a couple of years and the Express will be calling for those responsible for the housing bubble to be hanged alongside Prince Philiip for killing Diana.
57. tenyearstogetmymoneyback said...
During this thread various people have asked "Where is the money coming from?"
I wonder if it is quantative easing? The Government / BOE have pumped hundreds
of billions of pounds into the economy. No one really seems to know where it has gone.
Perhaps it has all been lent out as mortgages, while the business wanting to invest in
something useful is left loanless.
58. titaniccaptain said...
@ Alan
Exactly....our obligations are becoming unreachable targets....
@PHD
Some excellent points there....namely few houses on the market being potentially fought over by a few cash rich.......the house I live in I payed over the odds for in 1993.....but was no indicator of an upward trend.
Also a good point that about the readership of many newspapers may not share the same sentiment as they used to...
Consider your excellent points stolen for my own uses lol
59. letsgetreadytotumble said...
This is all happening with huge borrowing, printing and an interest rates at ridiculous levels.
Prices may have gone up, but volume is still well down, and prices still down on a yearly basis.
When the borrowing/ printing runs out, and IRs are back up where they need to be, the house market will be toast.
I'm sticking to my 50% reduction from peak forecast, in about 3 years time. And it may be more.
60. fubar said...
You are so Goddam negative all the time. The Dear Leader has saved the world. You should all be happy at the glorious cultural revolution sweeping away the old ways. No more so called "common sense". Be happy that you can get into hock up to your eyeballs. Its your patriotic duty to squeeze all your gear into a tiny flat made of wet plasterboard and old copies the Labour manifesto and pay the big bucks for it. Anyone who doesn't is a missed the boat fool and lily livered traitor.
61. phdinbubbles said...
@TC
Nope, I was talking deluded crap. The Express is back on form this morning.
62. techieman said...
Bulls - as i said a couple of days ago, welcome back!! It would be good to have your comments in real time though. Can you apply to the mods? Kp @ 15 well done on those auction properties. Remember though a paper gain is just that - if you have liquidated with that kind of gain then again hats off to you. £60k obviously is alot of money in your book, and what? shall we just forget about the losses on the rest of the portfolio - or are they the only properties you have? Or maybe you bought the rest of em in 1995, and they are all making handsome returns? Wouldnt it have been wiser to get out in 07/08 and get back in now - oh or are there tax reasons you didnt do that? I know i am after a free education but i would appreciate a bit of lucidness on your part.
I suppose its human nature to stay away when you are clearly wrong. This move back up has been anticipated by some of us here, although of course the extent of it in terms of time and price is the challenge. Clearly 66% bears wasn't enough to push the price still lower in January so will 78% bulls be enough to push it higher? Maybe - maybe we get 99% bulls first. As for Kps coments about embracing risk, from where i sit that's quite risible.
What makes me smile is that i can accept that yes i may be wrong, but you boys cant. You are wedded to your position, whenever i heard people argue in the pits on the exchanges they all had one thing in common, they all talked their own book. Me - i got out at the top in the last "crash" in the late 80s and didnt get back in until a few years later, this time i got out a year before the top - really so i could lock in the cash to play around, and have absolutely no intention of getting back in. You boys dont know anything about why we are where we are, so how on earth can you anticipate where we are going to go, and why and how we are going to get there? When was the market at its nadir? Well for me NR was the aha moment, because the shenanigans in the wholesale credit markets was manifesting themselves in "real life".
Of course if your house is your biggest asset then you have a massive VI but me - i have no axe to grind there. In terms of my wealth a house just dont register that high (even when i owned one). This is more an academic exercise for me, which is why its pleasing that what i thought would happen with the re-appearance of the bulls has.
I will finish by quoting from a post in April 2008 - "Therefore the moral is.....DOnt create inverse pyramids - especially in markets that are illiquid and to average a loss is to compound stupidity. BTLrs - stop reading this and start liquidating your portfolios if its not already too late!!! Sunday, April 27, 2008 10:07AM" - if you want to read the whole thing its here.... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2008/04/blog-btl-to-the-rescue-12703.php. Of course what, if anything, you do with the information is your call. Good luck !
63. techieman said...
oh and ive just seen this. Take a look - a picture paints a thousand words... http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2009/08/28/-How-Can-You-Be-Bearish-When-the-Economy-is-Improving-.aspx
64. techieman said...
and if you cant be bothered to look at the link try this out :
"The door to the last, great selling opportunity is wide open at the moment. But it must be close to slamming shut because the headlines now anticipate higher levels just as adamantly as they saw no bottom in sight last February-March. The headlines on our daily S&P chart (above) show the critical psychological transformation, from a fear that the economy was “the worst since the Great Depression” to widespread assurances now that the “coast is clear.”
I don't blame you bulls you have no experience of these issues, but if your wealth is predicated on a rising market (in a single asset class) , then wouldnt it be a good idea to try to research areas that may indicate a change in trend? Dont you owe it to yourself and your family to at leats do some macro research and make a decison based in part on that? As well as say the local area, and some o level supply and demand "innit" analysis. You have another key now its up to you if you want to unlock the door, before the property gets repossessed!!
65. titaniccaptain said...
@PHD
I like your deluded crap!!!!
66. mountain goat said...
Gosh TM you'll scare them off !
67. mountain goat said...
TM well said though
68. titaniccaptain said...
@Techie
I like the quote under the graph........"World trade is collapsing, wealth is evaporating and the banking system is broken"........a view you share?.......:)
69. techieman said...
Hi TC. My view on this doesnt resonate, its all about the technicals for me. You can argue both sides of a news equation. For example you could say thats all true.... but it was already discounted in the market. The question isnt the news it is how much it has been discounted ... if at all.
BTW hope your gig went well the other week in London Tawhn, Sorry i couldnt make it - would have been good to have touched base ... although really i do prefer my anonymity (especially if i meet up with developers or EAs!) Have you listen to your mate JD on the Nolan show last night? My link is above. Give him my regards and tell him not to let the b8stards grind you down - even if they have got huge t*ts :-).
70. titaniccaptain said...
@Techie
I see what you mean.....we are on different polarities yours analytical mine intuitive (That's not saying you don't use intuition) but come to a similar conclusion hence our presence here.
Can you re post link to Nolan show....my eyes are tired (Gall stone and liver flush kept me up for 2 nights)...
Will be organizing a meet for the end of the year around Christmas for House price crash and The Economic Voice.......was going to do a summer one except health problems got in the way....Will announce it soon so everyone has time to make provision.....I understand the anonymity aspect but that went out the window the day I started doing the ridiculous videos. But if you or anyone else wishes for more low profile meet then contact me at titaniccaptain@hotmail.co.uk I can organize a meet where no one will know the location except those who contact me.....that doesn't guarantee that there wont be any developers or EAs there...I have been emailed by EAs who agree with alot on here and wish for my coordinated crash idea to take root. Most rue the day they didn't make provision for the crash and feel cheated by the government and let down by the financial world.....we may find we have more in common with them than against them.
Gig in London was the strangest I have ever done...we were booked by as Elvis impersonator who didn't even advertise the gig and was defiantly not the full shilling.....the sound was terrible...PA guy didn't have a clue, couldn't hear ourselves so timing was a nightmare and out front sound was beyond a joke because the out front sound had an audio limiter..just very unprofessional but we had a giggle
Anyway we got payed well so he honored his end and went home wondering what it was all about so you missed nothing other than a very strange night.....
Here is a clip of "Our" (The band leader for want of a better expression) Elvis who opened the night with us after he went off stage it all went down hill very badly but that's the nature of the beast....the sound is like playing in a cave......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTO9fXrxb6c
71. Jayk said...
Ignore it, it's just a Spring bounce.
By the way, it's September Tuesday. Autumn's just days away.....
72. greenshootsandleaves said...
kp@15 'Auction properties bought 4 months ago look like a v good investment!! 60K up in 4 months'
Congratulations on having come up with such a fantastic and original money-making scheme! I'm happy for you, I truly am. I do notice, however, that it's 'look like' and not 'were' (sigh). Yep, when it comes to property, profit-taking is always going to be the problem, isn't it ? It may even explain why having to find other 'investors' by talking the market up outweighs the need to keep what would otherwise be an easy path to riches a secret.
PS Re your comment @ 20: And what's wrong with a degree in Economics?
73. titaniccaptain said...
Sorry Techi....I misread your comment about posting above..I thought it was in this thread. DOH
74. new user 2007 said...
Smiling is needed...
...because "it" acts as a reminder that prices did not stop falling owing to a rise in IQs, They started falling because those with low IQs could no longer access the funds to be a danger to themselves.
The maths of what cash buyers are buying in my area does not add up, but they are obviously bulls. But they are hardly going to drive the market forever. Thankfully, most people are not competing with the rich (their purchases are skewing things upwards in general).
KP:
60% was possible in stock markets over the same time, but with greater liquidity and lower transaction costs. Woo Woo!
Perhaps you need a course to figure out the difference between desire and effective demand.
75. new user 2007 said...
I have to say it is commendable that the bears here require 4 months of data to have the ability to question themselves, while the bulls could not do that after 12 months of falls.