Thursday, Jul 30, 2009
Will it go negative?
Bank of England: Lending to individuals, June 09
The lowest ever nett lending figure - but will it now dip into negative territory? Those who know how to post graphs here might care to dig out the data series LPMVTUV from the bank's interactive database - I'd like to know what the graph analysts reckon will happen next..
Posted by uncle tom @ 11:58 AM (791 views) Add Comment
15 Comments
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1. stillthinking said...
There was a bumper year of students, I wonder if they are single handedly holding the debt figures up with student loans at 20G apiece.
Another batch of potential FTBs slapped on the snout.
2. tyrellcorporation said...
Hey presto still thinking you've nailed the real reason labour aimed for 50% of kids going into higher education. Also this keeps up demand for all those rental properties owned by politicians.
3. uncle tom said...
Typical of Labour, they launched into this 50% higher education target without stopping to seriously consider which subjects, and in what proportions; would be of most use to the nation..
..so, surprise surprise, not only do we have vast numbers of graduates up to their necks in debt, we also find that most of them have learned virtually nothing of commercial use..
4. 51ck-6-51x said...
Here you UT:
5. 51ck-6-51x said...
...and just [ 2004 : ] :
6. 51ck-6-51x said...
( ^^ here you *** go *** UT )
7. uncle tom said...
Thanks 666,
The question is, what now?
Both graphs suggest that the buck stops at zero, but a negative figure seems perfectly possible..
8. little professor said...
666 - great graphs. Really shows how out of control lending got in the noughties. Anyone expecting a "return to normal lending patterns" once the credit crunch is done needs to reassess what they consider normal lending.
9. stillthinking said...
Tyrellcorporation,
Its all going to come down to rental values in the end, I wonder what New Labour will do about rental subsidies when the coffers are empty and the pen to write IOUs is out of ink.
10. uncle tom said...
stillthinking,
New Labour has got very little time to do anything now. Even if they take it to the wire, they won't be back until after the party conferences now; they will then have a little time to play before Christmas, and again up until around the end of March when they will dissolve for the election.
Expect the remaining legislative agenda to be full of spite, such as giving people 'rights' that the taxpayer can't afford to fund, so forcing the next government to revoke them..
11. tyrellcorporation said...
UT - 'Even if they take it to the wire' - they will as they are backed into a corner. Like a proverbial rat though this will be when he's most dangerous, aggressive and devious.
Brown's decision to bottle it (when he would have probably won) at the tail end of 2007 will go down in history as one of the biggest political mistakes in the last 50 years.
Great graphs 51ck-6-51x. thx.
12. gone-to-colombia said...
I agree, very little time to do anything. The next government at the start of their term will introduce the hard policies that are needed to reduce the debt. The country has to face up to the price of the recent madness, I think it's going to be brutal.
13. 51ck-6-51x said...
UT said, "Both graphs suggest that the buck stops at zero, but a negative figure seems perfectly possible.."
A -ve change in net lending is, indeed, possible.
From The B.O.E.:
"""
Net Lending
Figures refer to gross lending less repayments and other adjustments (e.g. for bad debt write-offs). The breakdown of net lending figures (ie by banks and Building Societies) reflects the impact of acquisitions/disposals of mortgages or consumer credit portfolios.
"""
14. 51ck-6-51x said...
It's may even be in the interests of the next (non-Labour) government to keep the country on life support for a while ( that is minimise business failure, but little else ), as politics is a blame game - "Everything is their fault, we are doing all we can, but we can only fire-fight with the resouses we have left", e.t.c. then start to get the country deleveraging halfway through the term, so that things are going better by the end, thus securing a second term.
15. 51ck-6-51x said...
UT
- Also, kind of worrying that individuals and HA's as a whole are not already deleveraging.