Thursday, Jul 23, 2009
ONS Rubbish
BBC News: Big jump in retail sales in June
How can this possibly be true?
All the negative economic factors, rampant unemployment, wages down, everyone saving rather than spending and the ONS reports we are spending more in the shops!
IDIOTS!!!
Posted by wdbeast @ 09:55 AM (1761 views) Add Comment
28 Comments
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1. Richk said...
Reason:low mortgage interest rates for those in remunerative employment=loads of cash...until interest rates rise.
2. flashman said...
A previous post talked about South Korea. They have an unemployment rate of only 4%. The government is thinking of stepping in to curtail rising house prices and increasing mortgage lending. China has recently increased its growth rate. Bear in mind that these are manufacturing economies who supposedly have vastly reduced markets.
Now we hear that in debt-ridden Britain, people are stepping up their shopping. The Pound keeps defying its detractors and the FTSE market appears to have recommenced its upward trajectory. Even the housing market appears to be in a state of suspended animation. WTF is going on?
The market never moves in straight lines but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't listen to the story it is telling us
3. flashman said...
Sorry, I meant to add that mortgage approvals by the major banks increased to a 15-month high in June. Mortgage approvals are the housing markets best leading indicator . I am far from a housing bull, but I like to keep my mind open
4. icarus said...
flashman - If the room smells of roses look for the coffin. Chinese govt - recent $600 bn stimulus to bank lending and industrial investment in order to avert the politically damaging unemployment that would have resulted from plunging exports to EU/US.
June retail - they put a lot of that down to the weather and purchases of things like 'summer foods' (hampers from Harridges for Ascot and Wimbledon????). Anyway, if that was the reason there's a good chance July's figures won't look so good.
5. Richievet said...
As an individual all that matters to me is how I live my life and the security of my future. All around me I see people strangled by debt and it feels wonderful to not own a house (which is actually owned by a bank) and to rent.. It is so obvious to me that in the next 12 months the situation will be much worse.. so i consider myself to be sitting pretty. I dont care if people have been out buying crap clothes and cheap bathrooms and garden decking. These statistics mean nothing to me
6. flashman said...
icarus: They always put 'it' down to something. We all have a tendency to cheer the news that suits us and a tendency to explain away news that doesn't suit us. If someone gives us a torn pound, it is still a pound (ancient Basingstoke proverb)
7. Natasha's Dad said...
Is this based on cash paid or on units 'sold'. If the latter the BOGOF makes this of no benefit to the retailer and in fact increases their unit cost and hence reduces the profit.
8. icarus said...
flashman - but there is a recession and government action can always counter that (a smell of roses).......for a limited period.
9. flashman said...
On the subject of dubious proverbs from Basingstoke... Applying a stimulus (your roses) to a dying economy can be a very good idea. It is a bit like a Surgeon deciding to administer an expensive course of treatment to a dying patient. The patient might die and the doctor wont get paid. On the other hand the grateful patient might live and gift the surgeon a Rolls Royce .
The argument should not be about the decision to administer a stimulus. Rather, we should argue about the skill of the practitioner. Gordon brown appears to have taken the decision to punch the dying patient in the face until he wakes up. The Chinese practitioner appears to be more skillful. He is trying to kill the infection before gently applying a better program of nutrition to the patient.
10. Saps said...
where to start with this 'news' and the frankly pathetic responses, exemplifying the panicky girly nature of the average Brit.
First, June 2009 was first full month of UK car scrappage scheme. Up to a hundred thousand extra sales(of predominantly Korean econoboxes) at circa £1bn sales revenue in total, will have a huge effect on overalll retail sales figures, circa 2% increase alone.
Second, according to ONS, http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/rsnr0709.pdf , retail sales, actual takings, grew 2.5% between June 2008 and June 2009 whereas retail sales volumes grew by 2.9%. Now that implies the average price of the average sale fell in the 12 month period, which of course backs up ONS's spin(lies) over general deflation. The reality, as most people with a pulse and a requirement for nutrition should know, is that most all staples have gone up in the last year with food in particular still registering high, sustained percentage rises. Factor this into the retail sales figure, which is at least 30% food-based and sales volume(price-adjusted) will of course be markedly less.
Hence the pretence is kept up. The ONS, UK official economic data and UK generally, due to its reputation for pathological lying and low moral base ain't worth shit in the minds of decent, right-thinking, independently minded folk.
11. mrflibble said...
This party is dragging on way too long and all the good alcohol has now been drunk...
12. flashman said...
No problem, we'll just do a Cain and Abel
13. flashman said...
Sorry, wedding at Cana
14. str 2007 said...
Hi flashman,
Looking forward to sharing your optimism sooner rather than later, have to say I'm still with Bellwether though re: yesterdays link.
Can't help thinking there's a bunch of people truly hooked on spending after the last few years and they're relying on bailouts saving house prices. They may turn out to be right but I'm 60-70% of the opinion the money will run out before a sustainable recovery is reached.
Now I'm certain I'm putting 2 & 2 together and coming up with 7, but your mention of Basingstoke and hospitals leads me to ask the question if you've recently visited a sick relative in hospital ?
The reason I mentioned it was I happened to get chatting to a fascinating old chap when I was in Winchester ICU recently, his sons visited him, I think one was a forex trader and one had something to do with a spread betting company.
I know alot of them about, but thought I'd ask the question.
15. flashman said...
Hi str: Not guilty m'lud. I was in hospital recently for a fractured elbow but that was elsewhere. By the way, my economic optimism does not stretch to predicting a specific time frame. Several months ago, I blogged here that the Pound would go up and that morale was sky high in the City. It was met with incredulity and even distaste. Here we are, a few months later, with a resounding rise in the FTSE and the Pound. I didn't need any special str1 type skills to make these predictions. I just kept my eyes open and my ear to the ground. That's all I'm doing now
16. timmy t said...
Good old Brits - can't resist a bargain. If it's on offer they'll buy it, regardless of whether they need it or can afford it.
17. bellwether said...
Sorry missed the action on yesterday's post, did respond to Flash late but felt worth repeating here - how's that for egotistical!
"Flash thanks for taking the time to respond to my fit of pique! Find your response genuinely interesting and will bear it in mind. Reminds me somehow of something Charlie Munger said recently about feeling more optimistic about the economic outcome of all this as he was getting closer to death.
For now I don't share the optimism, but I guess I'm optimistic about being able to be optimistic in the nearish future. I also believe that the sort of change you speak of is quite possible but somehow feel the ground isn't right yet, although it will be in time. It is not so much that further pain is programmed or inevitable, but more that it is perhaps necessary before we can really get the change. The incredible golden era that has existed for us since 1945 was preceeded by nearly 3 decades of suffering, not that I'm suggesting that's necessary just that we have maybe forgotten what collective pain is (and that it is not Princess Diana dying !) before we detach to take the sort of leap you describe. Most of all a leap involves letting go"
18. str 2007 said...
Must sign off for the afternoon, going shopping before all the sales end ;-)
19. techieman said...
Hey Flash "Several months ago, I blogged here that the Pound would go up and that morale was sky high in the City. It was met with incredulity and even distaste. Here we are, a few months later, with a resounding rise in the FTSE and the Pound". I dont think that's (the resounding disbelief and distaste part) right actually - some people like to have a go at a scapegoat when what they think (and possibly want / need) will happen doesnt.
Yes the pound went up but as you said recently you saw no reason now to be bullish. Re the FTSE - did you notice the retracement percentage from the low in March (3485) to the high @4520, before we are now re testing that high? Its inrteresting that EUR / GBP seems to have found a floor at 8400 (i have been long for a while and think IF we have another break of 8700 that will be a good signal).
I got stung on the S&P - thinking that we would fall to 810 before possibly breaking new highs -as it was it only got down to 865 ish, so shorts @ 920 looked good and then i had a bit of scampering to do!
Interesting to see if the FTSE cash breaks the 4520.
20. techieman said...
oh and as for cable im interested to see which way this recent range is gonna be broken - interesting stuff. I favour the USD but PERHAPS after one last push, for Sterling.
21. flashman said...
techie: Yes, we made out like bandits with our longs on Sterling and since I indicated that I had pulled my permissions to go long, it has gone nowhere. We are pretty pleased with ourselves on that one. I don't remember the exact context of my comments re bullishness on the FTSE but I think I indicated that after the big rises I saw no reason to be further bullish. I don't think it has gone any higher since then, so if I had any interest in the FTSE, I'd be pleased with that one as well.
I am NOW generally bullish on the economy but do not connect that comment to any market predictions or time scales.
I have to say that I often detect a hint of 'side' to your comments and am left wondering whether it is because I have been rather derogatory about technical analysis. If I am wrong about the 'side', then please accept my apologies..
22. techieman said...
I think the answer was 38% [;-)] - and i should have known. A few months ago i said it would go up from the lows retrace and then march on further before exhaustion of the copmplete retracement of the predominant down move. I think i had the conversation with MG. The error was thinking the retracement would be bigger and then being "persuaded" to accept that the move prior to the retracement marked the end of the counter trend bull move from the March lows.
I have no problems with your comments being derogatory about TA. The forum is designed for an exchange of views including disagreements! We have discussed what is ok in that respect before.
Personally i do like to mention levels and in general i have been pretty good - remember my horizons are probably a bit longer term - so a level of cable 1.65/66 when the market is 1.58 is not too bad, and the fact that we have only so far been up around 1cent from there without sprinting ahead isnt too bad either.
A bit previous for the lows in the EUR/ GBP 8500/8600 isnt too wide of the mark (it didnt stay around 8400 for very long did it!).
That - as they say - is history - where too now though is what interests me.
BTW seen the indicies?? So much for 4520 !
Now as for HPs i think its well know on here that against a fair bit of "incredulity" i said that i thought that there may very well be a counter trend move (which seemed a bit obvious to me) . I suppose the real question now is IF and WHEN will that be exhausted. My view was (and still is) always that it would reinstate to the downside, but im not so sure about when.... i said before when alot of bears turn bullish (or non bearish). Look at the comments from a guy on here called jayk - and we may be close!
23. flashman said...
I don't know about your horizons being longer term than ours. We don't have any horizons per se. We do (mostly currency) 'stuff' for clients based on heavy duty mathematics and aren't really what you would call traders. Even people who call themselves city traders are not traders in the way that you are. The idea of purely making a living from predicting squiggly lines leaves me cold and there is almost unanimous agreement in professional circles that it cant be done without eventually coming a cropper. Obviously we do trade our own accounts for the hell of it but only because in our line of work we have access to 'information' and the thoughts of other outfits. I can't imagine trading purely on technical or fundamental analysis (which in my opinion are really two sides of the same coin). Obviously everyone has heard of Day Traders but you are the first one I have actually come across. I once discussed it with some colleagues and we all shook our heads...so if you can do it, them more power to your elbow. I made a decision early on in my short blogging life to avoid talking directly about trading but I have now strayed several times. I am going to make a conscious effort from now on to leave the pure trading stuff to you. You are once again the only trader in the village!
24. Enough Already said...
Wages aren't down - well not in the Public Sector where we are expecting yet another pay increase! (Unions are still negotiating).
The public sector is over-loaded with (QE) money in order to keep wages and useless jobs afloat, so we are looking for virtually-bankrupt private busineses to reduce prices and therefore boost our income even further!
25. techieman said...
hey flash - thanks - erm i think! Of course you are right - 95%+ of traders lose money and when you have done it you know why - the market "sees you next tuesday" s you at every turn.
I do kinda agree though - i think i too should take a step back from the trading stuff and only comment on HP. Having said, i really dont have many more comments to make on the HP subject - it seems to be panning out as expected. The acid test though is if the bear does reinstate. I personally thought it would get a bit more entertaining with the odd (in both senses of the word) bull rearing their head and snorting heavily through their nostrils. Bit disappointed that they seem to be hiding in the wild!
26. str 2007 said...
Flashman/Techieman
Always interested to read your trading news and views over hear as I'm sure alot of others are.
Further to my post at 15 I can report back that the West Quay shopping Centre in Southampton was alive and buzzing this afternoon and people were walking around with shopping bags.
There's money coming from somewhere ! No recession here it seems, now move along please.
27. Carol said...
The figures include both changes in prices and in sales volumes. Prices have risen over the period, so part of the increase is from that. I don't know what proportion is an increase (or decrease or no change) in sales volumes.
28. nomad said...
str 2007. I was in West Quay yesterday afternoon, didn't spot you. We wanted some cheap storage for our lounge - still renting - and, including lunch spent two and a half hours in that bloody great Ikea before coming out having spent £8.32 on a pink plastic box for lego and two spare toilet brushes. Then splashed out another £4 on two capuccinos. I trust this activity has given the economy a nudge in the right direction.