Friday, Jul 10, 2009
More rehashed house price statistics
FT: UK house price falls slow in June
House prices in England and Wales fell again in June but at the slowest pace since April 2008, confirming other signs that the housing market is stabilising after steep falls over the past year. According to the FT House Price Index for June, house prices fell by an average 0.3 per cent, bringing the year on year decline to 13.1 per cent. The data are in line with the general picture formed by a variety of house prices indices, all of which measure activity in slightly different ways.
Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:43 AM (756 views) Add Comment
9 Comments
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1. house said...
The price fall slows, this does not mean that it is going to go up. The general trend is downwards. If the prices drops by 0.5% per month, then the annual rate is 6% and over the next 3 years it could be 18%. This is what happened in the last crash. Therefore the expected drop as discussed on this site is not far off except that it is going to be a slow process. Do you agree Mark W.
2. mander said...
The absolute number of transactions in May, at around 40,000, is down 62 per cent, so of the 38 per cent sales the first time buyers count for 11%. FTBs have been practicly extincted. I will pick 2010 as the end of all property dreams.
3. Ilejustwait said...
With the interest rates at .05%
We haven't seen nothing yet,the BOE will have to
Increase the rate soon even if it's 12months time,
And when this happen then we begin, a stack of
Dominos by the millions one pushed and the rest
Follow,
4. 51ck-6-51x said...
House price crashes are generally slow due to the actions of governments, ( & their central banks ), owners and lenders. Goverments do not want a fast crash as they think the wealth effect will feedback into the economy; owners who were thinking of selling postpone in case it's a blip or move to being landlords; lenders do not want a fire sale as it will decrease their recovery rates.
I think the current pause makes sense due to such factors, but the fundamentals still show downward pressure. Repossessions may increase as some of these efforts show themselves to be insufficient (e.g. owners not being able to let, governments' balance sheet deterioration ) and such effects would feedback.
5. mark wadsworth said...
@ House, yes, that's the most likely scenario. Prices have been dropping for a year and a half now, the rate of falls has slowed to 5%-10% a year (like you say) and I'd expect this to continue for at least another year or two.
No doubt Japanese Uncle will say it will continue for another ten years - perhaps he is right, so the key is "Don't buy a house until prices have been flat for at least one or two years"
6. house said...
@4 Mark
Agreed and everybody just have to be patient. Their time will come. The best advise anybody can give to the FTB's is to save as much money as they can now rather than go and buy a property. By doing this they would bring about lower prices. Good old demand and supply. Unfortunately it would appear that the VI's are not giving the correct advise.
7. house said...
Just to add, logically when there is a threat of prices going up then I can understand people jumping in but when the price is going to either stay the same or may go down, why are people not waiting. People out there surely cannot be that naive.
8. Waitingtobuy said...
House @5The best advise anybody can give to the FTB's is to save as much money as they can now
Good advice especially as saving rates are going up on a daily basis now (fixed and easy access)
9. growler said...
I'm afraid people are naive as they are fed bullsh1t.
The Times ran with this story yesterday http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/property/buying_and_selling/article6675843.ece
.... Only to delete all the comments and rehash it for today.
What had happened is that one contributor had written in right at the start yesterday to say "don't listen to those HPC people on housepricecrash who all have vested interests: now is the time to buy"
... having missed the obvious point that by raising awareness of this site, he's achieved what he didn't want to. "Don't tell him your name, Pike". douh!
This wasn't missed by the Times who have since deleted all comments.
Now who really has the vested interest ?