Sunday, Jul 19, 2009
More brown shoots
BBC: Economic recovery in UK 'on hold'
The UK economy is set to shrink by 4.5% in this year, the biggest fall in a single year since 1945, according to an influential think-tank.
The downbeat forecast is more pessimistic than the consensus view, and considerably worse than the 3.5% fall predicted by the government.
The Ernst & Young Item Club also warned that hopes of economic recovery are "running ahead of reality". It does, however, predict a return to modest growth of 0.5% in 2010"Unfortunately, it is hard to see any very solid grounds for sustained optimism at the moment," said Professor Peter Spencer, chief economic adviser to Item.
Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:55 AM (1251 views) Add Comment
14 Comments
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1. paul said...
There are currently two very contrasting stories running about the UK economy - one saying that house prices are stabilising, the other that there is no recovery in sight.
I'm astonished that 'journalists' seem happy to publish both stories, but cannot see the duplicity and non-compatibility of them.
2. britishblue said...
Was out with a couple of senior bankers yesterday:
Their view:
- Would you lend if your internal economists predicted a further fall of 20% in house prices?
- Don't believe anything you see in the press - at all. The press didn't report the financial crisis correctly as it was happening.
- Gordon Brown pulled of a killer deal when he lumbered Lloyds with HBOS. If he hadn't pulled of that deal a 1/3rd of the UK wouldnt have been able to get cash out of the bank and the economy would be doomed. The UK was lucky he was in charge then.
- Be very, very careful about talk of a recovery. There isn't one. Expect shocks later this year in the financial markets.
Ok, this was a focus group of 2. But an interesting conversation and better than reading spin from flaky journalists, who as Mark says cannot see the duplicity of publishing conflicting articles.
-
3. general congreve said...
What a pair of helpful bankers, very happy to hear some positive news from the frontline.
Forward to the forthcoming shocks in the financial markets, I want my shiny yellow payout asap!!!
4. down wave said...
Those of you that have watched this web site for perhaps the last five years or so will know that I have been
way ahead of the predictions and media. Just let me reassure you that there will be no recovery
for the UK economy in my lifetime and I am 63.
We are a small Island whereby for years the politicians have sold us all short, now pointing a
12 gauge shotgun at those of us that have retained steadfastness, fortitude, propriety and
ethics; Everything, the very deficiencies that bankers, politicians, local councilors and so-on
lack.
5. Mark Wadsworth said...
BritishBlue, thanks for anecdotal, I do like this bit: "Gordon Brown pulled of a killer deal when he lumbered Lloyds with HBOS... The UK was lucky he was in charge then.
Well, somebody had to sort out the mess made by the idiot who'd been in charge for the previous decade ... oh, right.
6. quiet guy said...
"Those of you that have watched this web site for perhaps the last five years or so will know that I have been way ahead of the predictions and media."
Down Wave,
The earliest posts I can find for you are late 2008 or am I missing something!? A random perusal of the archives suggests to me that Japanese Uncle, Uncle Tom, Paul and Denzil are amongst some of the earliest voices on the blog who are still with us.
Speaking of archives, check out the sagely financial advice from "Glorious Sunshine":
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2007/02/blog-dont-take-out-a-big-mortgage-2595.php
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2007/05/blog-latest-govt-dclg-figures-price-up-yoy-4075.php
7. hpwatcher said...
Those of you that have watched this web site for perhaps the last five years
Until now, I don't recall seeing any post by you.
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2007/02/blog-dont-take-out-a-big-mortgage-2595.php
A little before my time, but good to see that bitch-fests are nothing new....
8. mystie010 said...
Hi everybody - I contributed for a little while in those early years, but sadly I lost my password. Admin very kindly sent it to me again so I could join in - and all I can say is MUHAAAAAHA!- where are you these days confused76???
9. techieman said...
hpwatcher thats a bit unfair Down Wave has been here for quite some time. heres an example : http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2008/11/blog-deflation-vs-inflation-19514.php Number 4. The search engine on HPC.co.uk is now pretty crap - whereas before it was non existent. [i have asked for an approved search facility before - for example where you can view your own blogs].
The nature of this beast is that some people prefer the forum, some the blog, some drift in and out of the site and a combination of them.
10. mystie010 said...
Just like me :-)
11. down wave said...
8. techieman said...hpwatcher thats a bit unfair Down Wave has been here for quite some time. heres an example: THAN YOU.
"4. down wave said...Deflation is uncontrolable - a spiraling vortice into the abyss. Stock on the selves will be worth less tomorrow. The Equity of any kind of stock that has been paid for, especially if the money has been borrowed to pay for it, albeit, houses, cars, paint, bricks, cement, live stock, land, plant and machinery, they all will be worth less with the passing of time. So selling them will NOT pay back or cover the money borrowed. This will accelerate bunkruptcies accross the board. Benchmark will be a forgotten word.
Many small town centres will become Ghost Towns as businesses go bust, not one by one but five or ten at a time. Commercial property landlords will not be able to find business tenants, yet they will still have to pay their business rates to the local councils. They will also go bust or be forced to sell at knock-down prices. If they are mortgaged and cannot meet the payments, the banks will repossess and auction off the property. This is already happening in my small sea-side town with ten businesses closing in the last month or so. Is is fast becomming like a Wildwest Ghost Town.
Banks will be most reluctant now to lend money for any kind of business or project, including house purchases as they know that the loans will/may not be paid back due to the falling equities and securities values caused by deflation. Each Bank will be rushing to get in first, to reposses. The issues of 'Statutory Demands' by courts will skyrocket. A sucking wirlpool of lost money into the vortice as this 'Sucker' goes down.
Best and safest employment in the next period will be Baliffs and Auctioneers.
This is what the government is terified of and what the TV and newspapers are failing to point out.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008 10:58AM "
THIS IS ALL TRUE TODAY and will by even truer tomorrow.
12. down wave said...
8. techieman said...hpwatcher thats a bit unfair Down Wave has been here for quite some time. heres an example: THAN YOU.
"4. down wave said...Deflation is uncontrolable - a spiraling vortice into the abyss. Stock on the selves will be worth less tomorrow. The Equity of any kind of stock that has been paid for, especially if the money has been borrowed to pay for it, albeit, houses, cars, paint, bricks, cement, live stock, land, plant and machinery, they all will be worth less with the passing of time. So selling them will NOT pay back or cover the money borrowed. This will accelerate bunkruptcies accross the board. Benchmark will be a forgotten word.
Many small town centres will become Ghost Towns as businesses go bust, not one by one but five or ten at a time. Commercial property landlords will not be able to find business tenants, yet they will still have to pay their business rates to the local councils. They will also go bust or be forced to sell at knock-down prices. If they are mortgaged and cannot meet the payments, the banks will repossess and auction off the property. This is already happening in my small sea-side town with ten businesses closing in the last month or so. Is is fast becomming like a Wildwest Ghost Town.
Banks will be most reluctant now to lend money for any kind of business or project, including house purchases as they know that the loans will/may not be paid back due to the falling equities and securities values caused by deflation. Each Bank will be rushing to get in first, to reposses. The issues of 'Statutory Demands' by courts will skyrocket. A sucking wirlpool of lost money into the vortice as this 'Sucker' goes down.
Best and safest employment in the next period will be Baliffs and Auctioneers.
This is what the government is terified of and what the TV and newspapers are failing to point out.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008 10:58AM "
THIS IS ALL TRUE TODAY and will by even truer tomorrow.
13. Jayk said...
Down Wave, are you one of the many hpc posters who insisted oil would finish 2008 at over $200 per barrel?
You see, I remember loads of you shouting it, but can't find a single one who will own up to it. Lots of self-appointed experts with 20/20 hindsight goggles and selective memories in this place.
I was also confidently told that the FTSE would go below 2500 and stay there, house prices would crash 50% within two years of the start of the crash in late 2007.........etc etc.
14. techieman said...
np down wave!