Monday, Jul 13, 2009
Meredith Whitneys sees GS 15% up short term
CNBC: Meredith Whitney Earnings Outlook
Some really good overall points from MW, who has been spot on with financials throughout. Long term she is bearish but short term she sees banks extending their rally on this quarters earnings. She particularly likes GS who have no effective competition, but also banks doing mortgage business.
It also seems that on May 20th the Obama Administration gave away 18 billion to incentivise banks to refinance mortgages and this incentive goes up to 75billion if critieria are met. Short terms this will improve net tangible book which should see mortgage banks rocket up.
If you are short sterling get our the way!
Posted by bellwether @ 03:49 PM (603 views) Add Comment
11 Comments
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1. bellwether said...
WT's comments are of interest of anyone who is interested in the economy,banks and house prices. A must listen.
Anyone noticed the site seems to be drying up last few days. Might be the time of year I guess. Hopefully not the site dying on its ar*e.
Since I'm treating the 5 people online today, here is a decent more long term thought from Richard Russel for anyone wavering in their bearishness. The ideas can be applied to property
Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): March lows to be tested
“I’ve given this next statement a lot of thought. I don’t think most analysts understand the amazing power and tenacity of the great primary trend of the market. Most of today’s analysts have had no experience with bear markets. We’re now in a primary bear market. Most people believe that if the government or the Fed does this or that, the bear market can be halted or reversed. Nothing could be further from the truth.
“The fact is that in the market, nothing is more powerful or insistent than the great primary trend. The primary trend can best be compared with the tide of the ocean. All man’s efforts to thwart or turn the tide are like so many sand castles built on the edge of the nearest waves. The incoming tide will wash all the sand castles away, if not with the first wave then with the second or the third. Thus, the incoming tide will conquer all.
“This is why all of Obama’s and Bernanke’s and Geithner’s ’sand castles’ will be washed away by the bear market. All that will be left will be crippled corporations and monster debts.
“Obama believes that Roosevelt with his spending and alphabet agencies ended the Great Depression. Sorry, President Obama, you are wrong. The Great Bear market and Depression finally ended when the bear market died of exhaustion on July 8, 1932. That was the day when the D-J Industrial Average halted its decline at Dow 41.22. At that time, the Dow provided a dividend yield of 10.2%. That’s when the bear market actually ended. It ended the way all bear markets do - in utter exhaustion.
“On another subject, I’ve felt all along that the government and the Fed should have allowed this bear market to run its course, rather than wasting trillions of dollars in an attempt to halt the bear market. Perhaps politically, this would have been impossible, but in the end it would have been better for the nation.
“Accordingly, although I certainly do not want to see the March lows violated, my studies suggest that the odds favor an eventual breaking of the March lows and then a much lower bear market.
“Sorry, those are my deepest and most truthful thoughts.”
2. quiet guy said...
Denninger had some rather unflattering comments to make about the interview:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1209-Whitney-And-CNBC.html
And also had something to say about loan modifications, recently:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1208-Mr.-Nocera-And-Regulators-WAKE-UP!.html
3. flashman said...
bellwether: "the site drying up"
This site reminds me a bit of my, once thriving, old local. All the regulars used to crowd their stools around the bar which made it difficult for anyone else to get a drink. They also used to creep out new comers by turning around to stare every time the door opened. Eventually new people stopped coming and the locals got bored of seeing the same few faces every day.
I recommend the site gives away a free hooker (preferably deformed in some way) for 50 consecutive interesting posts and punishes cliquey repetitive posts with pictures of a naked str1
4. techieman said...
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2009/07/blog-david-rosenberg-puts-a-generous-valuation-on-the-s-and-p-at-24255.php - your article mine at 8.
"Still thats counting your chickens a bit, first we have to breach the neckline of the H&S, then have the traditional pull back to it. " [S&Ps]
This looks like the "traditional pullback" - lets see if we have a turnaround tuesday. If not and we move on up then maybe some reassessment. This move today has probably killed some shorts - was looking for 890 [basis sep] but not in one day!
Flash erm like the first para - i would welcome S2R1 with open arms... but the second para -hmmmm
5. nomad said...
"I recommend the site gives away a free hooker (preferably deformed in some way)"
I'm quite new so should be encouraged. How deformed?
6. bellwether said...
QG there doesn't seem much in the Denninger post. MW has been incredibly reliable on financials to date and it is the first bullish call I've heard her make. I suspect she is right on GS in particular, and even if you hate GS, what better way to do it but by owning a bit of them. Bought stock this morning lets see how it does tomorrow.
Flash, you can be a fickle mistress! I actually think the quality of the site has improved since I started looking at it, bear in mind a lot of the posts were s2r1, Crunchy et al and I never got much out of that stuff. I pretty much check in daily because usually I find something of value somewhere in the articles and posts. Learnt a lot from your good self,Tman, JU, Uncle Tom, Icarus, 666, Still Thinking to name a few.
TMan I'm still majorly bearish as you know but I'm wondering if the timing is right. I think we could see the financials produce some astonishing market changing figures as they did in the Spring and keep this party going for another couple of monthts anyway, then the stimulus might be showing some decent figures. As I say def bearish S+P at 500/600 wouldn't shock me but think we might have to wait for that yet.
7. techieman said...
Fair comment b/wether - odds are as you indicate - on some upside follow through tomorrow but lets see how we close. To be honest i was hoping to come back a fair bit from the highs today - still!!!
8. quiet guy said...
@bellwether
"even if you hate GS, what better way to do it but by owning a bit of them. Bought stock this morning"
Good luck but rather you than me.
Since my earlier post, Denninger has put up another article about MW so sorry but I'm going to spam your article with more :)
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1210-Merideth-Whitney-The-Internet-NEVER-SLEEPS.html
9. flashman said...
bellwether. Only joking about the site. I really enjoy reading the posters you named (and a few more)
nomad: how deformed is really a matter of taste.
10. bellwether said...
This is completely (and utterly) unrelated to house prices/ecomomics but complete genius all the same - see you all later
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pY8jaGs7xJ0&feature=PlayList&p=1B515A8442436634&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=19
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84EoBQfdrb0
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