Friday, Jul 03, 2009
General Consensus Further 10% Falls this Year
Independent: The Big Question: Is the housing crash finally over, and is the market now recovering
Once you get past Mr Miles and his "hunch" this is quite a balanced article.
"So what indeed. In the housing slump of the early 1990s there were 17 months when house prices rose, even though the overall trend was firmly downward – a downwards staircase pattern rather than a ski slope. Most graphs in economics exhibit a certain amount of volatility or "noise". ......
..Some say the current revival in house prices is simply a function of special factors, such as the release of pent-up demand from cash buyers or those with very large deposits. They have been waiting for signals that the market may have bottomed out and are now taking advantage. However, by their nature, these sorts of buyers are neither very large in number nor a sustainable source of strength for the market......"
21 Comments
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1. fubar said...
The Big answer is No.
2. down wave said...
By Gazing steadily into the future, even those amongst us that have sawdust in our skulls can
not only see but also feel the economic abyss ahead. A very uncomfortable feeling, now written on
everyone’s face and in red ink on their accounts, bills and statements..
3. mrflibble said...
Once we have had a crash prices will bottom out and then recover or stagnate. So far all we have had is a picnic in the park.
The last of the suckers are currently placing their chips down on the Housing Roulette Table after being encouraged to do so by VI's and family/friends who believe 150 grand is an acceptable price to pay for a shoe box.
Sadly years and years of HPI have made the vast majority numb to the worth of money. Let's hope after Capitulation people start to realise that housing isn't a one way bet.
4. Bear said...
I think we could see a quantum leap in falls, this fall, taking people by surprise again after the summer holiday. I think we are looking at another 20% annual decrease.
5. Carrera5 said...
I have a big cash deposit and I don`t think we are anywhere near the bottom - however a lot of people I know who were in my position have jumped into property again, only to now think they have done it too soon.
When unemployment stabalises - so will house prices .... we are 6-10 months behinf America without the resources ..anybody who thinks we are at a bottom, tell me where the "demand" and "money" is going to come from ... this is my second year without a pay rise and many people I know in my profession are facing their first ever wage cuts or a stagnated salay .... green shoots ... yes if you are an Mp on expenses that are inflationary adjusted ...
6. quiet guy said...
One of my relatives asked me recently if I'd considered buying recently. You can guess my answer. I suspect that the recent bounce has had a significant positive impact and some people are being tempted back in the market.
BTW, the graph to the top right of the article is a masterpiece of disinformation. A quick glance implies that the market has clearly turned because the long term trend has been lost by sampling a very short time period.
7. wdbeast said...
Another piece of misleading journalism, that leaves the truth until the end of the article.
"On the other hand, unemployment is rising, interest rates will probably go up next year, most people are desperately trying to pay off debt rather than take more on. The banks are far from fixed, and the Government will have to repair our catastrophic public finances, which will squeeze the rest of us when taxes have to go up, starting with VAT in the new year."
In other words, "I know the market is Fooked"
8. george monsoon said...
Never mind the bloody housing market.. ... Civil war anyone?
9. wdbeast said...
george monsoon@6
I'm free this weekend, what do you have in mind?
10. uncle tom said...
Now then George...
..things are falling apart quite nicely on their own without you taking to the streets
(and remember, the only thing that could save this government now would be a Falklands event - don't for goodness sake give them a legitimate enemy..!)
11. happy mondays said...
@ ut 10 they have one, Iran..
You go for it George, you will not be on your own...Viva la Revolution..
12. bluebeach said...
In North Wales, I have seen a distinct pick up in interest over the last few months but now, I get the feeling it has started to drop off. The jobs market is under a cloud up here with major Manufacturers pulling out of the area. I have been looking and like many, been tempted to jump in and buy that "roof". However, I now get the feeling that, in the real world, things may get worse from here on in.
The hype has worked a little and I feel for those starter families who have believed Gordon and the state press/Broadcasting that all is well.
Because, where I stand, it most definitely ain't.........
13. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
14. p. doff said...
Careful what you say Bluebeach. I mentioned a pick up in this part of North Wales once. I thought I'd got away with it but Pyracantha noticed and called me a bull. Lol
15. letthemfall said...
When you ponder these things, if house prices, which remain overpriced against earnings, were to rise steadily, that would ensure permanent recession (and eventual economic collapse), because a growing proportion of wealth would become trapped in land and bricks. But markets, for all their faults and short-lived bubbles aside, do not allow this to happen. Therefore the overwhelming conclusion is one should not buy a house now, despite the "expert" commentators who seem to be standing on their heads.
16. sparky300 said...
Here in northern Ireland there has been a pick up in sales in the last few months, I have been tempted to buy also , but now I believe there is a return to stagnation , one large developer near me has several sites sitting completed and so far no buyers , one apartment at the front has a sold sign on it for months, no one has moverd in yet, could this be a ploy to try and draw in some fool ? This apartment is on at 175k , 3 bed houses start at £245k, are they nuts? This is in a small town , not London
17. mark wadsworth said...
"No" and "no", respectively.
18. mander said...
UK started to engineer the housing recovery a little bit too soon considering here houses are double compared to the rest of the world. So better sacrifice the pound? I bet you Conservatives are fuming.
19. shipbuilder said...
Sparky, for all the talk of increasing volumes and so on in NI from the start of the year (and indeed most of it was true), the fatal mistake people made was assuming that it would translate into a price bounce.
Media, EAs all upbeat, mood lightening, talk of recovery, builders building again, plenty of anecdotal evidence of activity, yet the Q2 Nationwide report continues to show falls. The NI market is going beyond all bearish expectations.
20. enuii said...
Redman (mander), explain how sacrificing the pound will fix house prices without huge economic and financial collateral damage. As you have revealed your leanings I can't see how any such simple left or even right leaning policies can possibly fix the UK at the moment.
Care to elaborate further?
21. letthemfall said...
On housing there is certainly little to choose between Labour or Conservative: they have similar policies in that area, as well as a few others. If the Vince Cables of this world, a rare species, ever got some power, then possibly we might see a new approach. That is unlikely to happen, however.