Wednesday, Jul 29, 2009
Blatant stockmarket 'ramping'.
Telegraph: 'Stockmarkets climbing wall of worry'
If that analogy holds, we can expect to see some market gyrations in the short term as investors wait for further evidence of economic and corporate improvement, which may be a few months away. Markets always have to climb this wall of worry and the fear of being left behind will become increasingly strong.
Posted by devo @ 11:30 PM (615 views) Add Comment
6 Comments
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1. bellwether said...
one cliche after the next, the cash on the sidelines argument is my favourite ramping device, cited as if it speaks for itself , and cited without reference to the wealth that has been destroyed since the markets (equities, property, commodities) turned down.
The bull story is based on the notion that confidence is all we need to recover (the animal spirits idea with which Obama Admin seems taken) and that we have seen the desperation, panic and despair needed to clear the ground. If that happened I must have missed i, all I recall is cnbc calling a generational low in March.
There are other disconnects (eg even today troubled bond auctions in US) but essentially they are all versions of how deleveraing hasn't yet happened, and how Banks are still hoarding inventories at fantastic prices so they can pretend they are solvent. Until this is tackled we can't move on, and the excess credit frozen into the system cannot be expunged.
Sure there will be new areas which will grow, and may in time replace credit as a way to grow, but it will be a long time before they can substitute what has been lost and is being denied as lost.
In a sense the world was running on a sense of its own invulnerabilty and that is shattered now, and rushing back to recreate it is like mania, the depressive who cannot cope with grief so gets manic instead.
There sense that we even have the right to get back to normal needs to be broken before something real can emerge.
2. devo said...
@ bellwether,
I can feel a singularity coming on.
Now, if you can get your mates 666 and flashman onboard....
3. jack c said...
Ecellent article from April this year in The Daily Reckoning (Oz version) - well worth a read in relation to this thread dailyreckoning.com/what-happens-when-the-money-runs-out/
4. alan_540 said...
@bellwether
And so says the gospel according to St. Bellwether...
5. letthemfall said...
Surprised that the Telegraph gives space to such a trite handful of paragraphs (perhaps the editor has just shoved all his dosh into shares). The Short View in the FT makes some interesting comments on a recent sharp fall in China; much better value.
6. Guffy said...
Just look at the S&P 500 today - a release of Job figures that were probably more bad than good, yet the chart shot up like an Apollo rocket to the next Fibonacci resistance point - and there it was kept there all day even though it seemed to want to come down - there were none of the up and down gyrations of a normal market at work. It feels like there is a hidden hand determined not to let this market fall. They know if it goes, the rush for the exits will be hectic because everyone deep down realises that things are not actually getting better.
To me the charts are looking very strange and are just not behaving like they normally do. Someone seems very determined to keep this charade going for as long as possible. It begs the question, if you have enough money to be able to steer the market in any direction your want, then surely there is zero risk on the futures market and potential billions to be made. Could this manipulation be all part of the financial rescue package.