Friday, Jul 24, 2009
Assetz says up, rest say DOWN!
Money Week: Moneyweek: Roundtable's Where next for the property market
Moneyweek invite the best (LOL) experts to discuss the state of the British property market. Is the bear market over – or are signs of recovery just a blip? Well worth a read and apologies if a re-post.
Posted by drk @ 08:58 PM (1401 views) Add Comment
8 Comments
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1. drk said...
Apologies, tried to circumvent the subscriber link and failed miserably!!
Anybody got suggestions of how to post a working link to the article? I am a subscriber so want to post from my own files.
2. quiet guy said...
Uncle Monty has published a transcript on the forums - a bit naughty that but that's the Internet for you!
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=120741
No big surprises in my opinion. Property should be seen as something you buy to live rather than an investment for the forseeable future.
3. drk said...
Thanks Quiet Guy, I suppose it saves me the aggravation of trying to post the damn thing!
4. mander said...
Stuart:For house
prices to go up, you’ve got to expand
easy access to cheap credit –
unemployment is pretty much irrelevant.
Banks can you please create some money for these highly educated Buy-to-Let in order to help our economy recover and so create jobs.
5. little professor said...
"James Ferguson
Chief strategist, Pali
International
- Down 30-40% from
here, by 2017"
Leaving aside the magnitude of the falls, this is the only guy that is talking on a realistic timescale, These crashes take years to play out - in the last crash prices didn't stop falling for six years (1989-1995) - yet in this much larger crash everyone seems to be suggesting that we will be "back to normal" by 2010/2011.
6. alan_540 said...
"James Ferguson Chief strategist, Pali International - Down 30-40% from here, by 2017"
I'd go with this one, right sort of timescale, meaning that inflation can do the damage to houseprices whilst headline prices don't drop too much. Thus, keeping everyone happy.
7. nomad said...
Stuart used to make me angry - now I love him. He's straight out of a sitcom isn't he - just believe the opposite of what he says . . . every time.
8. little professor said...
See also the same roundtable discussion this time last year (no subscription needed):
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/when-will-britains-housing-market-hit-rock-bottom.aspx
Comedy club chief didn't take part, but it's still worth reading.
For those that can't be arsed reading the two articles:
2008 predictions:
James Ferguson, Pali International: 50% falls, 5 years before prices stop falling
Henry Prior, Primemove.com: 30% falls, 2012 before we hit bottom
Ed Mead, estate agent: 25%, and two years
Seema Shah, Capital Economics:20-25% falls over next year, and continued falls for at least another year
John Wriglesworth, Wriglesworth Consultancy: 25% falls nominal over three years - could be a lot more than that in real terms
2009 predictions:
Aah! in the time I've been writing the thread on the forum has been pulled - guess moneyweek must have complained. Grrr