Wednesday, Jun 10, 2009
Is this Comedy Club material or is it true?
FT: London property market buzzes as sales lift
Various London boroughs have seen a significant increase in buyer confidence and sales over the last month, with one location calling the market "buzzing". According to the latest Kinleigh Folkard & Hayward London property comment for May, the housing market is looking up across London. The report discovered that the market in Southfields was "buzzing", with plenty of strong competition for property and a great outlook for the summer ahead.
Posted by jack c @ 11:40 AM (1836 views) Add Comment
25 Comments
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1. montesquieu said...
errm ... paraphrasing: 'Estate agents says good time to buy a house, buy, buy now or miss out'.
Hardly news is it?
2. paul said...
More anecdotal froth where empirical scrutiny fails to deliver for VIs.
3. doomwatch said...
I stopped reading at the 1st line
"According to the latest Kinleigh Folkard & Hayward London property comment for May ..."
Anyone who believes EA "comment" deserves to rot in negative equity.
4. paul said...
Is this Comedy Club material or is it true?
You, err ... obviously got some property to offload then, jack?
5. Neil B said...
"significant increase in buyer confidence"
150% of zero is still zero.......
In my area (Zone 1) there are hundreds of new apartments that have been left unsold for over 1 year now. The developers are now pushing them as part rent / part buy, still with no takers.
6. Papabear said...
"I think that we are in for a good summer. The market appears to be rallying, and if you are thinking of selling, now is the time to do it.
"Buyers need to make the most of the moment. Prices are not going to get any cheaper, so don't leave it too late to get on the ladder or upsize."
Is it just me or does the 1st sentence contradict the 2nd?
7. jack c said...
@paul - I dont personally have any property to offload at present and rather than totally dismiss the Southfields EA office "buzzing" statement wondered if any contributors have any evidence to support or counter the claim.
In the North of England several EA's have indicated that they seen an uplift in enquiries etc... however I met with someone yesterday who has had a property on the market for several months and despite a price reduction and a number of viewings he's had no firm offers - so I know it is bulls**t up here but I cant claim to know the same to be true 300 miles away
8. techieman said...
Paul i think you are being less than Charitable to northern Jack. Jack has been here before both of us and has always had interesting comments from his particular coal face. In any case if you didnt know Southfields is the nearest tube stop to Wimbledon (when its open of course:-)).
There is an interesting point about a north / south divide. It would almost be worthwhile asking an EA to comment (and one that actually tells the truth). I dont think we should just discount news because it goes against the collective view on here. There will be geographical pockets of "good news" and counter trend moves. These shouldnt IMO be thrown out because they dont co-incide with what people here think or want. Prejudice is bad whatever the source.
9. paul said...
"wondered if any contributors have any evidence to support or counter the claim"
Okay here's some basics. These things may actually stop you from getting fleeced in life.
1. News is based on facts. Asking turkeys whether Christmas is a good idea and them saying "no" is not news. Asking estate agents when the best time to buy is and them replying "now" is not news either.
2. When anyone talks of a "buzz" or "surges in "sentiment", they are saying in lieu of hard numbers, because the figures don't support it. So put your trust in the numbers, and stop listening only to what you want to hear.
3. If you want to last here as a bull, you're going to need to do a lot better than this. Post articles which are actually news (see 1) - otherwise you're just trolling.
10. paul said...
You know I think you're right techieman.
Estate agents would never fake buyer enquiries just for some cheap column space, would they?
They even have fashion models queuing up to buy property in some places.
11. techieman said...
Paul a little fiesty arent we today? Anyone that reads what Jack and myself say will know what we think. BUT every bear market i have ever known (and i'd probably guess i've known a few more than most, let alone those i have studied) has counter trend rallies. Now there may be one now or there may not be (i favour the former). That doesnt mean its all over.... not at all.
Many bloggers have said there will be continued falls and no rallies - maybe thats true, but i doubt it. Markets generally stop near some support (clue look at the trendline on the front page), they often reverse for a while and then re-test the support. And who could make such a thing happen? Well when a market that hasnt fallen for around 20 years falls, dont people think (wrongly in my view - unless i was able to trade it) its a good time to buy? Especially if they perceive the government is helping with tiny interest rates? You dont have a concept of oversold overbought indicators because its outside your experience. Markets are often contrary and although i would be the first to agree the property market is illiquid so doesnt have the same correlation to the indicators, it still consists of people.
Yes there may become many unemployed but some people in a job may have security. Remember not everyone is in the market for a house and yes prices are determined at the margins.
I hope you have understood this paul but it seems that this too might land on deaf ears! - Sorry i cant add a pretty picture that is beyond my skill set.
12. techieman said...
Incidentially speaking for myself i want further falls - but my experience suggests that these would be more likely sustainable if we have a few bears that are sucked in to a bull trap by believing some of the rhetoric of the buy now while stocks last brigade, that then become entrapped in negative equity after telling all their mates that they had spotted and acted on a bottom.
This is what i said about Anne Asworth's article yesterday
"This note of unison may be the most compelling reason why anyone who has been postponing the search for a new home in the hope that bargains were guaranteed to become even more abundant should think again."
What makes me smile about this drivel is that there is absolutely no humility. A warning not to miss out on a bottom really shows the naiveity of the author. Did she predict any falls? Nope. Did she predict any counter trend move - nope, will she predict the next wave down - one guess.
It annoys me that there is not only no admittance that yes she was wrong and had no clue of a pending fall but that the view still (however couched - "may") states that a market cannot have a counter trend rally unless its merely a move up to new highs. I may be wrong but this smacks - as i have always been prepared for, and along with others here predicted in the past - a bull trap. Will it go higher? Quite possibly and may suck in some mnore bears. If and when Rodge the dodge capitulates on the up side in the words of Terrance Stamp in Wall Street "sell it all".
Anne remember picking bottoms gives you....
Tuesday, June 9, 2009 09:28PM "
13. denzil said...
Paul, I think your singling out of Jack as being some kind of double agent is about as bizarre as suggesting that Japanese Uncle was not in fact Japanese at all.
Regarding London prices. Check out http://www.landreg.gov.uk/houseprices/ and look for the bit about London seeing positive monthly change. I mentioned this last week but nobody commented. Whether this will be maintained is highly debateable but I would put more faith in land reg than Halliwide stats.
14. will said...
I am sure there will be many FTB'ers who now feel the time is right to buy their homes. Many have put this off for a year or two, but when the sun shines and interest rates are low, many will now sign up to the treadmill of having a mortgage at some discount. Good luck to them all - genuinely, but many of us on this site have studied the history and economics of house prices in the UK over the last few years, and we are more than happy to sit it out a little (or a lot) further. Each to his own.
15. Natural_born_pessimist said...
I am a property bear, but I have noticed a rapid up turn in the London property market recently. Two friends have received offers on their (over priced, IMO) houses in the last few days. One even came down to sealed bids...
It will be a pain listening to people cr@p on about a housing market recovery for the next few months, but we should just keep our powder dry and continue waiting I guess.
16. 51ck-6-51x said...
Jack c,
I rent in a leafy North London suburb, and having kept an eye on the local market for the four years I have been here (previously in central London and was doing the same there, and still do from a little further afield).
I have noticed that there has definitely been an upturn in activity around me recently (Apr onwards). At least offers are being made and accepted, and I have seen some hit the land registry.
Only fairly rich FTB's could afford to buy here with the current mortgage market.
* Typical 1 bed flat asking at over 230K
e.g. one large, but in bad nick sold recently at 220
* 2 bedroom Workmen's cottages (v.small, but well built) asking at 350K
e.g. Two sold recently at 315 & 320 [latter on land reg] - this is the same as Autumn '06 prices!.
* 4 bed Edwardian semi asking around 750-850K
e.g. one sold for 715K [on land reg, and was sold for 342 in 2003, no idea of condition]
My feeling is that the activity is mainly people deciding now is the time to buy that bigger (or more up market) property; along with a few cash rich FTB's being sucked in and that it is not sustainable (there is a glut of rental property in London I think - this could well be the ones they can't sell). I am a potential cash rich FTB and have always been looking at the London market ever since I started working in 2002... I would be looking for a steep discount to asking, but am unlikely to be accepted with the current activity (as experienced once when I offered 33% below only two weeks ago - rejected as "ridiculous", but I can wait).
17. cyril said...
I am one of those people who is contributing to the buzz. I had my place valued the other day, with a view to trading up. But actually I am unlikely to buy anything because the trade up is so expensive to get anything substantially better.
Another thing that worries me is that we haven't really had the full impact of the recession yet. The Govt has just borrowed a shedload of money to keep us afloat in the short term until the next election, so I think it will be some time before the nation's finances are in any sort of decent shape. And bearing in mind how many people are employed in the public sector these days....
18. Ghostbusters said...
I live in the 'buzzing area' . KFH do seem to be the most popular agent on the grid( based on signage) .based on a single street sample one with a sold sign one still for sale after 6 months.
a couple of months ago seemed to be a number of viewings in the area but last bank holiday didn't notice people looking around..
anybody looking to buy in southfields look at the asking price discrepencies between kfh and brinkleys..
I would wait to see the actuall sold for prices . Asking price on the grid maybe 650+ but land registryfigures puts the last couple of sales around the 500-550 mark ( Clonmore)
19. nomad said...
I think it's important to remember just how few people are getting any negative information on house prices. The great mass of potential buyers will be jollied along by all the VI reports.
Do we have any information on number of visits to this website? A couple of thousand maybe?
To most people buying a house is still another stage in growing up - like having a cigarette or a pint in a pub or getting married and having kids. One step follows another. And, according to all the information/advice they are receiving, now is a great time to commit to spending 50% of your earnings - for the next 25 years - on a home.
As the banks and estate agents might put it: "Gotcha!".
20. paranoia blue said...
@ 15 nomad
Extremely valid point, mate!
21. gone-to-colombia said...
No matter how much froth we read from VI's the true economic variables point, very firmly, to a continued decline of house prices.
I suspect that this decline will cotinue for two or more years.
22. jack c said...
Guy's thanks for the feedback and balanced input - looks like my 2 postings this morning caused a bit of a stir !
23. mander said...
Asking prices are going up and banks lend to investors those unreal asking prices. What can you make of this?
There are a lot of investors in property abroad who got burnt and they believe now London to be the safest investment. Can you stop this or will the next goverment stop this?
24. inbreda said...
@19 Mander...
Are you living on another planet? Reality as you see it seems different to what I see!
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