Thursday, Jun 04, 2009
False Dawns
Lovemoney: A False Dawn for House Prices
"The grim reality, just as one swallow doesn't make a summer, one spring bounce doesn't mean an end to the biggest property bubble in British history. In my view, this spring fever won't last.
The harsh reality is that the number of property transactions, mortgage approvals and home loans remain below half of what is needed for stable and rising house prices......
So, my advice would be to ignore the nonsense spouted by estate agents, surveyors, mortgage brokers and property hacks. Not one of these vested interests predicted the crash - and none will predict its end, either
Posted by sybil13 @ 10:39 PM (718 views) Add Comment
11 Comments
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1. tyrellcorporation said...
Phew, HPC continues... Even I was beginning to believe the hype!
2. Rbezz said...
Just as recovery hype should be taken with a pinch of salt, so too should articles such as this. Too many people, with a pathological desire to spread misery, are enjoying the "told you so" sanctimonious environment encouraged on this web-site. It is not difficult to find people within and without the property industry, at all levels, who were predicting the bubble would burst; the trouble is, the vast majority of those have been doing so since 2000. So, at some point, they just had to be right. Even a broken watch is unerringly accurate twice a day; but you wouldn't rely upon it, would you.
Property has far to go before what is popularly called "recovery". As has the rest of the economy. But I can tell you this; sentiment within the industry, at the sharp end (and by that I mean large scale investors who put their money where there mouth is) are sensing a bottoming out. They wont get it absolutely right, but nor will they get it absolutely wrong.
3. Bill said...
They will predict the end, because they will keep calling the bottom every month, for ever, and one day they will be right. A stopped clock is right twice a day after all.
4. mander said...
More engineered green shots to come. What are we in this country going to do when there will be no shortage in the housing market? Is it not insane to engineer a house price increase right now?
5. japanese uncle said...
One of the most horrific ghost stories written in 18-century Japan:
A playboy named Shotaro married a woman named Isora. Naturally he soon started to go on a spree without a shred of regard to his wife. Isora showed nobly profound patience for Shotaro’s misdemeanor after misdemeanor for years. But eventually Shotaro deserted Isora and married another woman in a village far away. Thanks to her strain of grief , Isora fell ill and died a heartbreaking lonely death.
Then horrific things started to happen around Shotaro who is now utterly oblivious about poor Isora, even unaware of her death. First his new wife suffered a mysterious illness and died soon. Then Shotaro started to be haunted by ghost of his dead wife. Now having realized that everything was caused by Isora’s vengeful soul, he locked himself in his house and have all the doors and windows sealed by the talisman prepared by the village shaman who told Shotaro to stay inside for 42 days and nights. For each of the next 42 nights, Shotaro had to endure the hair-raising hellish voice of the ghost, saying ‘Here is another talisman! How vexing!
On the 42nd day, Shotaro heard his neighbor’s voice, ‘Shotaro, well done! Now the eastern sky is beginning to be bright. It’ dawn. You are all right now.’ Hearing this, overjoyed Shotaro opened the door.
The neighbor heard a short horrific scream just once, then there was just dead silence. He was scared but curious enough to step outside, only to realize it was not dawn yet, but there was a particularly bright full moon in the sky. He could not find a trace of his neighbor, but just a lock of hair full of blood in front of Shotaro’s house.
One must appreciate how dangerous a false dawn can be.
6. techieman said...
JU - glad i didn't stay up to read that last night! - Hope its not a bedtime story for the kids!!!
7. japanese uncle said...
techieman
This is actually one of the most famous classic gothics, which I first read in primary school.
Anyway how many doubly naiive house buyers here would be playing Shotaro and brutally snatched to the next world, I wonder.
8. Sybil13 said...
JU what an amazing story wish there were more like you on HPC .....thanks for sharing that, I can think of a few I would like to see "snatched" to the next world.......
9. sybil13 said...
This might get posted twice but I forgot to put my password so its up to Mods to post and I find they just never seem to find their way onto the comments not because anything I say is unprintable I would imagine its a time thing. Anyway I said : Thanks JU for sharing that story, how lovely HPC would be if their were less bullfights and more story telling. That said the Fantasy Queen Rinoa and McT do SPIN some tales the moral of the story being plain to all. I thought your story was fabulous and so apt for what we are currently witnessing, I can think of a few I would like to see "snatched" to the next world but then I have to consider does the "next world " even deserve them!
10. stillthinking said...
The Telegraph, the Independent and Guardian etc all told poor Shotaro what a nice morning it would be.
11. uncle tom said...
So the moral of JU's story is: Don't trust your neighbours..!
We've been watching this false dawn bud and blossom - today I am beginning to sense that it has started to wilt..