Saturday, Jun 27, 2009
Falls slowing, but still falling
Times online: House price falls stabilised last month
"Fresh evidence that house prices have begun to stabilise came as official figures showed a modest 0.2 per cent decline in May, bringing the average price to £152,497"
The question really is, is this upward momentum that will push the indices into positive territory?
If so, what will rising unemployment do to the self-feeding "green shoots" propaganda message?
(if we believe propaganda it's probably because we want to)
Posted by dohousescrashinthewoods @ 12:14 AM (931 views) Add Comment
7 Comments
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1. Mr Plumbase said...
They just don't get it do they? Prices are still unaffordable, the money supply has slowed to a trickle and yet some still expect price rises!
Unbloodybelievable!
2. britishblue said...
Most people on this board have a vested interest; That is they believe that house prices were way overvalued and still have some way to fall. However, the people that make comments at the end of the articles of the Times, Telegraph, etc provide a more widepread sample of opinion.
What is now happening is that whilst the media is pronoucing green shoots, these comment boards are becoming increasingly vocal on the fact that there isn't a housing recovery. Of the 31 comments, only 2 supported the notion that house prices could stabalise or go up. This wouldnt have been the case even six months ago, when many more would be in denial.
3. phdinbubbles said...
"Hold on to your cash folks. This is only the beginning. Further price falls to come over the next 2 years. After 25 years in the property market, I've got out. I'm happy to tell you what other agents wouldn't dare. The market is on the brink of a gigantic collapse, and agents are frightened to death
Henry W. Tarforth, Warwick, "
Truth drugs?
4. mark said...
britishblue: the fundamentals are not there for houseprices to stabalise or go up.
Rising Unemployment
Rising Mortgage costs
increasing british debt
average price is still 6x average salary
there are still many mortgages due to reset after the low offer period
many 1000's of current mortgage holders are on interest only, when bank rates go up these will be amongst the first to lose their houses, at the moment many of these people are spending their spare cash as they are probably not that intelligent, otherwise they would not have bought on interest only to begin with...
now lets see green shoots
david smith from times says things are going up
gordon brown says we are ok
some dodgy figures from interested parties
even the government figures don't really stack, hence the way they correct them a few months later...
this is the worlds biggest recession since the 30's depression do you expect it to be all over in 18 months?
5. nomad said...
Good point BB, all these ramping articles that allow comments are now inundated with people who share our opinions on the future direction on prices. Also worth noting is, I think, that those who write these articles are not simply there to ramp up the market, they also have to sell newspapers - so there is a desire out there to read and believe . . . and, as we are seeing, act upon such information. Brings us back to an MSW quote "Every bear market will give one last opportunity for investors to lose money".
For those who don't read the article - and you're not missing a lot - here is the last paragraph, a wonderfully typical EA quote full of such reasonableness, basically assuring buyers that they won't lose if they buy now or later. His head belongs on a spike.
Peter Rollings, managing director of Marsh & Parson, the estate agent, said: "We are still bouncing along the bottom. We aren’t going to see any big improvements this year and these small changes — up or down — will continue for another six months. Currently, we are looking at some recovery in prices around next spring. Until then, we’ll continue to see small movements in average prices, although they may begin to start creeping up towards the end of the year.”
6. mark wadsworth said...
Re what Nomad says, if Peter Rollings and his ilk are so certain that prices will rise again very soon, why aren't they snapping up the properties themselves?
7. last_days_of_disco said...
Deep breath before the plunge, eye of the storm, I've got more...