Sunday, Jun 28, 2009
Experts Believe Dead Cat is now Dead
Financial Advice: The house price quandary goes on
This is the 2nd article I have seen that believes Nationwide and Halifax figures will have returned to negative this month . With July being the busiest month for moving , not buying, I do wonder how much more ramping we are going to have to endure . We seem to have got stuck in a time warp where people read property prices are going to fall
25% + but seem to believe they wont actually ever fall but just sit at 2007 values and start going up from there. Eventually we have to get the 25 - 30% falls that have already occured (most offers are at 25 - 30% and lenders are valubing 25 - 30% below peak), we just need EA's and sellers to catch up, and I think they will by around October when they will realise its 30% down this year or 40% down next.
2 Comments
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1. mark wadsworth said...
Sybil13 - keep the faith!
We were right so far, and we knew that there would be the odd spring bounce or dead cat bounce - think of the hundreds of billions the UK government has thrown at housing in terms of subsidised mortgages and so on, it's hardly surprising that it's had some modest impact on slowing down the crash.
As ever, I'd pencil in average fall from 2007 at at least 40%, but with wide variations (i.e. city centre flats down 60%+, average homes down 30%+ and so on).
2. inbreda said...
...and lets not also forget that although it makes predictions trickier - the only result of government involvement is that the situation will eventually be a lot worse. As you suggest re EAs, the government can delay a 30% fall, but will only result in an eventual 40% fall.