Saturday, Jun 06, 2009
Comedy Club back with a bang - Hear him roar!
Assetzzz: House Prices Now Growing Again
That is right - the Assetz House Price Watch (HPW) analysis of all the major house price indices now shows a 10% annualised positive growth in May! What a turnaround! Distressed property prices stopped falling some months ago but now estate agent window/mortgage approval prices have also stopped falling.
I'm sorry everybody, my forecast of 5% falls for this year was far too pessimistic and we are looking increasingly likely to have positive growth for 2009. If you've been sitting on your hands thinking you had longer before the bottom of the market, you haven't. This wasn't a house price crash, just a mild correction in the face of huge demand and house prices are now back to long-term average. You heard it here first!
Posted by little professor @ 04:28 PM (1901 views) Add Comment
18 Comments
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1. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
2. dead spider said...
Stuart Law IS Hamish McTavish and I claim my £5 .
3. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
4. quiet guy said...
"I'm sorry"
But don't worry. I'll help you get on the ladder before it's too late ... for a fee.
Impartiality. You can't beat it.
5. crunchy said...
The Law of gravity.
look it up Stu, before you fall on your Asse'zzz.
Boyzzz!
6. ted the red said...
Where the hell does he get an "annualised" rate of 10% growth from.
As he is selling his services surely this is misrepresentation?
7. crunchy said...
Stuart Grant Law OAM (born 18 October 1968 in Herston, Brisbane, Queensland) is an Australian-born cricketer. Now a British citizen who has settled in England, he is entitled to play international cricket for England, although his age makes this extremely unlikely to come about.
After a couple of seasons with the Australian youth team, Law made his first-class debut for Queensland in the 1988/89 Sheffield Shield, scoring 179 in only his second match. In 1990/91 he had a superb season, averaging over 75 with the bat and piling up more than 1,200 runs. Law captained Queensland to four Sheffield Shield titles and two one day trophies, making him the most successful captain in Australian domestic cricket; he is also Queensland’s all time leading run scorer in first class cricket.[1]
His low point- Hit an own wicket by venturing into property and refused to see the double whammy, or the ball racing down above him.
Lawz, Your're OUT!
8. This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.
9. denzil said...
I think Law may be going off half-cocked and a little prematurely but I expect he is used to that.
10. jimmy_joe said...
The Nationwide data series spreadsheet has the same chart as Mr Law posted, but theirs goes back to 1975, to show the last 4 crashes (err...corrections). Here are my observations.
o The trough for the last 3 crashes before this one fell below the trend line. So far this time, we've not gone below trend.
o The 1982 bottom in real terms was below the peak of the last-but-one boom.
o The 1996 bottom in real terms was below the peak of the last-but-one boom.
o The 2009 bottom (!) is about 40% above the peak of the last-but-one boom.
And a comment on the *exponential* trend line in the real price series:
If something rises by 2.9% per year it will double in 24 (and a bit) years. So, in 2034 the average house will cost £300,000 in today's prices. How many people can afford a £300,000 house today, or even afford to rent one? In 2038 the average house will be £600,000, or about 12x the average salary. People say that the historic 3.5x income mortgage multiple is nonsense because there are more double-income households these days. That's true but what effect has this had on the trend line, and can that effect continue? I'd suggest it's pushed the trend line higher than it would otherwise be and the effect won't be sustained. If, in 50 years time, we're all hyper-productive and have 3 wives, then the 2.9% trend line won't be so unthinkable. As it stands I think the long term trend has been overestimated. We'll have a beter idea of the trend when we get back to the point in the cycle at which Nationwide's data series began and it probably shouldn't be exponential.
11. mander said...
Comedy club is on drugs I think considering the latest election results or exactly what people think about the bubble and banks bailout.
12. jackas said...
Anyone remember that that German footballer with the funny name?
What was it now.....oh yes that right.
Kuntz.
13. peter_2008 said...
The graphs used are the CONSEQUENCE of what has happened in the wider economy. They have very little analytical value, if at all, on their own. They tell you history, not the future.
The overall money/credit supply is contracting. The overall employment is contracting. The GDP/Economy is still contracting. Now, you tell me the future.
To say “because house price went up XYZ this month, so it gotta to go up ABC next year” is bit like saying “In 2005, 20,000 people killed by Hurricane Katrina, but nobody died in 2006, 2007 and 2008, therefore, there will be no Hurricane in 2009 and 2010.” The death toll is the CONSEQUENCE of a hurricane. It got nothing to do with predicting the future. Stuart, you want know if there is a hurricane coming? Pay attention to the weather forecast!
14. debtfree said...
I'm sorry everybody, my forecast of 5% falls for this year, whilst the highest of all forecasts, is I am afraid far too pessimistic and we are looking increasingly likely to have positive growth for 2009. If you've been sitting on your hands thinking you had longer before the bottom of the market, you haven't. This wasn't a house price crash, just a mild correction in the face of huge demand and according to Nationwide house price index analysis, house prices are now back to long-term average.
what a w4nka
15. Assetz said...
Too scared to print my previous comments I note. Supressing the truth for your members is a little extreme don't you think ?
16. jack c said...
Well I watched Michael McIntyre on TV last night with his comedy roadshow and I have to say it fell short of my expectations - no such disappointment with Stuatz & Co however who continue to deliver month in month out. In a last ditch effort to save his political skin Gordon Brown should appoint Lord Law as housing minister !!
17. techieman said...
Assetz - i agree with you (probably the only time ever :-)) Actually even thats not true im sure we will be in agreement at some time its just after one of us has been proved to have been wrong a few more times
I dont think any remarks should be censured but i assume you have fallen foul of the blog policies rather than there being a conspiracy against you. Im not sure you version of "the truth" is completely factual rather than a opinionised distortion. Not thats particularularly bad - we are all probably as guilty at one time or another - just probably mis-defined.
18. new user 2007 said...
Oh look. A "model" based on 3 years of data. I seem to remember that most of the toxic assets came into being because of robust models with only 3 years worth of data. That market worked out quite well?!
Mr ASSetz:
You are too scared to have any comments at all against the one-sided rubbish that is printed.
Jimmy_Joe:
Many idiots managed to make money in the bubble. Many are still in denial and were successful by accident (whether selling to the mugs or the early-bird mugs themselves). Many then really do believe they know what they are talking about...either because "this time it is different" or they don't care as they are conning the said mugs.