Wednesday, Jun 03, 2009
Cold facts from the GLA
Greater london authority: London housing market report - March 2009
14 page report from the GLA on London housing.
On affordability they conclude "Initial analysis of the impact of the current downturn by the government’s National Housing
and Planning Advice Unit (NHPAU) suggests that in the absence of large increase in
housing supply the fundamental drivers of long term housing demand, such as population
growth, mean that even a large short-term fall in house prices will not prevent housing
becoming progressively less affordable over the next two decades."
Posted by hmm @ 08:42 AM (415 views) Add Comment
4 Comments
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1. 51ck-6-51x said...
Thanks hmm!
2. 51ck-6-51x said...
So many points in this publication show why there is likely further downward pressure, and most apply to the whole of Britain.
I can't find out how the NHPAU calculate "Lower quartile ratio of house price to income". Does anyone know where they get the two data sets from?
[N.B. 50,000 should read 5,000 under 'Recorded monthly home sales (London)', as per the graph.]
3. cyril said...
I don't know where the NHPAU get their figures from for lower quartile house prices to income, but they can easily be found from a variety of sources.
The lower quartile price is used because this gives a more 'realistic' house for the average person such as a starter home. The distribution of both house prices and household income is skewed, so the average is a bit misleading.
4. 51ck-6-51x said...
no one knows where their specific data is from it seems.
Cyril - yes - the lower quartile would be (generally, although not specifically defined as) the median of all the data points less than the median and is a far better measure of affordability given the two distributions (both have high skew and some kurtosis) which are being compared by the ratio. Just wanted to know where the data came from :(