Friday, Jun 05, 2009
Bear Food for the Bull Fighters
Moneyweek: Five Reasons House Prices will PLUNGE further
...dig below the surface, and the outlook's much less rosy. Here are five reasons why UK house prices are set to slide – maybe a lot – further.
Mortgage approvals are still 22% down on April 2008 and 60% below their 'pre-correction' levels
Mortgage lending was down 52% year-on-year in April, while net lending reached its lowest for eight years, says the British Bankers' Association
..........and the usual interest rates / loan to income etc etc..
Posted by sybil13 @ 04:38 PM (1977 views) Add Comment
8 Comments
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1. contrails are not a conspiracy (formerly npnh) said...
the lovemoney link on that page has a link to an article called "Get filthy rich from property"
http://www.lovemoney.com/news/the-property-ladder/get-filthy-rich-from-property-3530.aspx
Classic comedy!
2. japanese uncle said...
A well-balaneced/argued essay!
'If history repeats itself, "house prices could more than halve from here".'
is particularly persuasive.
3. will said...
Great post sybil. As always with Moneyweek we have a sensible view on house prices and why they are still WAY TOO HIGH.
That's good then as I'm about to rent my second property. A few more years should do it.
4. gone-to-colombia said...
I'm sorry, I just can't believe the arguments in this article.
Where are the statistics about the amount of 2x2 soft wood bought to make estate agents posts, the finger in the wind RICS assessment, or Ms 'I'll Eat my hat's' 'qualified' opinion?
No, no, this is all too reasoned for me!
5. 51ck-6-51x said...
The graph in (4), although a little short paints a lag of around 12-18 months (varying of course), which makes sense. Following that it would imply the current blip, and the future downward trajectory of house prices unless something miraculous happens.
6. devo said...
The key fact in this article...
Almost a third of British non-conforming mortgages – where borrowers with weak credit scores were given loans on the back of minimal, or no, documentation – taken out in 2005 are now 90 or more days behind on their payments.
7. Neil B said...
Here's one reason why house prices are set to plummet: There are no more mortgages to match the current asking prices and there never will be again in our livetimes.
8. britishblue said...
There are going to be some interesting decisions to be taken by the new Conservative government when it takes power. They will probably preside over the next stage of the housing crash and their policy may be seen as complicit in this, expecially if they need to raise interest rates and reduce expenditure. Any semblance of recovery now may result in a bigger housing crash in the next couple of years as people will remember the first dead cats bounce and then be more wary it will happen again. There could also be a backlash against a new Conservative givernment in its first year. The press very fickle and think it is thier job to sway political opinion.