Tuesday, Jun 02, 2009
"Approvals a good indicator of short-term trends"
BBC: Mortgage approvals rise in April
The number of new mortgages approved for home buyers rose in April for the third month in a row, according to the Bank of England. Lenders approved 43,201 new loans to home buyers, although the number of loans to people moving lenders or topping up existing loans fell again. Approvals for home buyers are a good indicator of short-term trends and suggest sales may continue to rise.
Posted by jack c @ 09:09 AM (1385 views) Add Comment
21 Comments
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1. hpwatcher said...
I'm surprised it isn't more positive given the huge amounts of 'printy, printy' money that the government has pumped into the country.
Sadly, like the stock market rises, there is absolutely nothing behind it, other than a government desparate to win a general election.
Once any election is over, the time will come to start paying-off the debt....which will be absolutely huge. Only then, will we see the substantial falls that the people on this site have been predicting.
2. Old_traveller said...
Outrageous again how the bbc does not give the full picture in that news:
http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2285
More approvals but less money lent overall in April? do the maths, not looking good for bulls.
3. mark wadsworth said...
Spring Bounce.
4. nomad said...
If things are looking so rosy we can expect the first upward move in interest rates this Thursday. Let's wait and see.
5. 51ck-6-51x said...
Talked to Abbey yesterday, who seem to be offering competitive (at least in the current market!) fixed rates all the way along the curve. They told me that they would lend me up to 5 * gross base! (No I don't want it, and no I don't think it would be at all sensible either!)
I am making an offer very shortly (today) at 66% of asking* (doubt that'll be accepted though, but you never know) - is this why registered interest and mortgage approvals (is that "in principle" or only upon completion?!) are up? Probably.
* Even though this would be my residence I evaluated the worth by performing a fair yield analysis (i.e as if I were a BTL investor) and am including the working with the offer.
As for base rates, they ain't budging for a few months IMO (The official line will no doubt be something along the lines of "we need to see what the effect of the QE and current environment are first")
6. 51ck-6-51x said...
jack c - yep, I am happy to hold, just if I can get in whilst volumes are low it gives more bargaining power and more choice of property (one just needs to find a more desperate seller I guess!)
7. crunchy said...
2. mark wadsworth said..."Spring Bounce"
The only way a lead ball is able to bounce mark.
Take the spring away and the floor takes the full impact.
It is a brave man who decides to replace the spring for their hand.
I would only advise them to take their rings off first, then watch and listen,
whilst keeping the rings placed firmly in my safe hands for good keeping.
8. 51ck-6-51x said...
^^ offer rejected as "ridiculously low" - ah well, their loss!
9. jack c said...
@51ck-6-51x - IMO best maintain your position, just a matter of time before the resistance level implodes.
10. crunchy said...
The question one has to ask.
Is the sping bounce for the sellers to pay off mortgages when selling their surplus, to balance the banks book,
or for buyers who may get repo'd on that surplus to better balance the banks book.
Perhaps the property market can recover and prices go beyond the point at which these banks went "technically" bankrurpt.
If so then why have the banks been reposessing. A riddle for the dumb or a sure thing for the smart. vice versa, versa vice.
11. 51ck-6-51x said...
Hmm something has happened to the HPC clock! It's 14:51 here in London.
12. 51ck-6-51x said...
...oooh - OK! well my post at "Tuesday, June 2, 2009 01:50PM " was posted at 14:50.
13. 51ck-6-51x said...
crunchy - The aim if the banks is simple: to transfer debts from those who are less likely to be able to maintain future payments to those who are more likely to be able to do so (see my earlier post. I am a good prospect for a bank, and abbey are prepared to lend to me at 5 times!)
14. 51ck-6-51x said...
( ^^ aim if = aim of )
15. crunchy said...
12. 51ck-6-51x
It's a shame that is not being allowed to happen in industry.
Out with the bad, in with the good. The only way forward. Man, that's how a free market economy works at it's best.
I will remain dubious of any actions other than the right actions. I get your point, hope you get mine.
16. c'mon correction said...
"Lenders approved 43,201 new loans to home buyers, although the number of loans to people changing lenders or topping up existing loans fell again. "
I'm sorry - "topping up existing loans" !!! The language the media use, sounds so routine; the uk public/media lax attitude towards indebtness is alarmingly. "...we gotta keep those loans topped up or else..."
"I'm just off to the bank dear to top-up one of our loans, will be back in a minute..".
17. crunchy said...
7. 51ck-6-51x .....I have noticed a lot of properties coming back for resale after sold signs have been erected.
For whatever reason, or a mutitude of them. lol.... You could try a change to a bulk tactic.
All is fair in war if you are not too picky. Favour honors the brave!
18. 51ck-6-51x said...
cruncy - LOL - yeah, might as well try and get mortgages from different lenders at the same time, maybe I can get up to 30*. And if it goes belly up, I'll just run off to live in India or Laos or something.. the recovery needs some risk takers.
19. jack c said...
A very good friend of my wife placed her family home on the market back in Autumn 2008 and within days the largest EA in the local area had it "Sold" - a sign duly went in the garden "Sale Agreed" - 9 months on their is no exchange of contracts or agreed moving date and in my experience this is widespread.
20. crunchy said...
17. 51ck-6-51x
Bridging loans can be a big persuader.
21. crunchy said...
17. 51ck-6-51x
So why be one of them, I say!