Friday, May 15, 2009
The Bailout bubble will emerge as a commodity bubble in March/April 2010
Yonkers tribune.: Gerald Celente Trends Alert - The "Bailout Bubble" - The Bubble to End All Bubbles
The biggest financial bubble in history is being inflated in plain sight, said Gerald Celente, Director of The Trends Research Institute. "This is the Mother of All Bubbles, and when it explodes," Celente warns, "it will signal the end to the boom/bust cycle that has characterized economic activity throughout the developed world."
Posted by sold 2 rent 1 @ 09:20 AM (1628 views) Add Comment
39 Comments
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1. sold 2 rent 1 said...
QUOTES from article
Either unwilling or unable to call the bubble by its proper name, the media, Washington and Wall Street describe the stupendous government expenditures on rescue packages, stimulus plans, buyouts and takeovers as emergency measures needed to salvage the severely damaged economy.
"All of this terminology is econo-jargon," said Celente. "It's like calling torture 'enhanced interrogation techniques.'
Washington is inflating the biggest bubble ever: the 'Bailout Bubble.' "This is much bigger than the Dot-com and Real Estate bubbles which hit speculators, investors and financiers the hardest. However destructive the effects of these busts on employment, savings and productivity, the Free Market Capitalist framework was left intact. But when the 'Bailout Bubble' explodes, the system goes with it."
"At this time we are not forecasting a war. However, the trends in play are ominous," Celente concluded. "While we cannot pinpoint precisely when the 'Bailout Bubble' will burst, we are certain it will. When it does, it should be understood that a major war could follow."
2. sold 2 rent 1 said...
Peak destruction will be around 16 April 2010 as defined by Martin Armstrong.
It is not all doom and gloom though. There are 4 technolgy revolutions to play out as we head into the consciousness singularity.
1. Colloidal Silver (Feb-April 2010)
2. Hemp (read http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/article.asp?ID=3774)
3. Free energy/Dark energy
4. Monatmic Gold
The last 3 will probably play out in 2011 once we have our freedom from corrupt governments/corporations/bankers
3. happy mondays said...
s2r1, war is inevitable unfortunately, as things unfold and go into meltdown, the powerhouses will be battling for control! Do you think that putting money into metals is a good idea as it will all be taken away or claimed by the governing state, do you not think buying land for crops possibly hemp eventually would be a better way of spending our hard earned savings?
Also like the, once we have our freedom bit, looking forward to that...
4. flashman said...
str1
There is no rigour or discipline to this guys argument. He keeps talking about a 'system ending' bailout bubble but doesn't bother telling us why or how the bailout will cause a bubble, or the system to finally end. It goes without saying that he doesn't bother to estimate a time frame. To compound the confusion, you make another unexplained leap, in your headline, by claiming that this bailout bubble will manifest itself as a commodity bubble.
I don't mean to be critical but I know you can do better than this. How about some of that resonating razzmatazz. I like that stuff
5. crunchy said...
17trillion dollars in bailouts can move mountains. Busy today, but I thought I would throw that into the mix.
Now where's my "popping" bubble gum.
6. tudorian said...
@ S2R1 does Calente follow Armstrong theories? I've come across him and his predictionsbefore on this site
Just a little personal interpretation ...
Governments, through pumping enormous quantities of money into the ravaged financial sector have artificially made bankrupt companies seem 'healthy'. The stock market, and its private and corporate investors have 'bought into' this Lazarus effect, and the share prices of these companies have jumped. (from memory the most fragile of companies have gained greater than more robust companies.) This increased investment, and associated rise in values hasn't come about from usual market forces / fundamentals.
Is this the mechanism of the bubble that Celente warns about?
7. sold 2 rent 1 said...
happy mondays,
We are already seeing LAW pulling back POWER to create the ETHICS as we move towards the universal cycle in 2011.
The whole MP's expenses scandal is exactly that. The LAW (Freedom of Information Act) is doing this.
As for metals v land, maybe have some of both. Selling metals at their peak into asian currencies could work well too.
8. crunchy said...
Last one... look at the companies, it's the rubbish that's flying. This is a prop up that will result in a stick up.
Pump, dump and leave it for the chump!
9. flashman said...
crunchy: 'Pump, dump and leave it for the chump!' Muhammad Ali would have been proud of that.
How about "The market is too ugly to beat me. Now it must fall"
10. paranoia blue said...
Le Crunch @ 8
Absolutely spot on, and also how many more rights issues can actually be supported?
11. sold 2 rent 1 said...
flash/tudorian,
I wonder what models he is following too.
IMHO, many people who discover these metaphysical models tend to keep the discovery to themselves.
Armstrong didn't want his model to fall into the wrong hands back in 1999.
Maybe Celente doesn't want to reveal his models for this reason
12. sold 2 rent 1 said...
flashman,
Late March - mid April 2010 resonates with the commodity bubble that peaked in 1980 with Calleman's mocdel
The whole inflationary cycle that took place in the 1970s resonates with the period October 2009 - April 2010
13. flashman said...
str1: Now thats more like it. Bloody marvellous
He uses a 'proprietary' system called globanomics, which works on the principle that ALL things are connected (not just economic metrics). In my opinion he is a disciple of the French economist Walras and has based his models on his 'general equilibrium' theory. I am not knocking him because our own predictive models are loosely based on Walras's theory but not his mathematical formulas.
General equilibrium theory works on the basis that when one thing gets out of kilter it will affect everything else but that things will eventually struggle back to a state of equilibrium. He called this 'tatonnement'
I think that enormous economic stimulus is a wildly out of kilter factor that will effect everything else. The trick is to mathematically work out where a new equilibrium will be achieved.
14. general congreve said...
The more that is printed the more that is needed. The printing can't go on forever, at some point the game will be up. There may be a number of different ways it can play out, currency crash, rampant inflation etc. or probably a combination of things, but there's no get out of jail free card in the current situation.
Buy some gold and a bit of tinned food to see yourself through those days you don't fancy queuing for the stuff and sit tight. It's coming like a 200mph freight train IMO. I doubt it'll be quiet like Russia in the 90's, but we'll be getting a taste of it for sure.
In case you don't believe me I saw a news article on the TV the other night (I'm in Sweden, so maybe you guys haven't seen it). It said Latvia (that has debt at a level of 100% of it's GDP) has issued an order to shut down half the nations hospitals, amongst other equally severe cut backs. Obviously we're not in it anything like that level at the moment, but it's getting worse and things will get sh1tty, make no mistake.
15. happy mondays said...
@ Flashman
I think you are saying, that our relationship with earth, universe if you like, should be in equilibrium, however with interference, whether it be atomic bomb test or quantitative easing, there is and always will be a knock on effect! (Butterfly effect) which not only effects things which are directly related but also totally unrelated..Now i know you say this is a mathematical formula, would you say or not that it could be conscious / unconscious energy transmitted around the planet which also puts everything out of kilter, so the negative energy that is around at the moment on a financial level might effect the planet as a whole..s2r1 might be able to answer this one, with a bit more authority as he is well equipped on this subject matter, but you are obviously very smart on economic theories..
16. general congreve said...
Happy Mondays @15 - All a bit too hippyish for my tastes. Put simply, screw with stuff and things are gonna f4ck up!
17. happy mondays said...
general congreve - Nicely put, plain and simple, how it should be..
18. flashman said...
happy mondays: I don't think that things will, or ever have achieved, a stable equilibrium (even without interference). Everything will always be in a constant state of kinetic flux. It is up to us to adapt and prosper.
I'm sure that conscious/unconscious energy plays a part because everything plays a part. The financial turbulence we are experiencing will undoubtedly affect the planet. How could it not, when it will directly cause political and social change?
However, I limit myself to economic metrics and their state of disequilibrium. Severe disequilibrium will always be caused by something like QE and the bailouts. I work on the basis that there will be a process of 'tatonnement' to bring selected economic metrics back to a state of (temporary) equilibrium. Mathematical formulas are used to predict where the NEW equilibrium will be. Nothing ever returns to where it once was. This is where I depart from Walras. I think he believed in a more static equilibrium, but to be fair, the world was a lot slower in his day.
I often use these models for mundane personal stuff like house prices. They are not specifically designed for it but by using proxies, some useful results can be obtained
19. general congreve said...
Flashman @18 - You got it there, 'constant state of flux', that's pretty how much the ways things work in the world and the universe, there is no such thing as true equilibrium. What might be equilibrium for some people or some things won't be for others. Life is constantly changing, you've just got to play the game and change with it, try to play the game to your best advantage.
Problem now is we've got some big changes underway and we in the West aren't holding many good cards in our hand and it's a tough call to know how to play what we're holding.
My money's on gold, at least you can probably sell it for Yen or Yuan and get your money back when all this settles down.
20. sold 2 rent 1 said...
flashman/general/happy,
Cheers for the references to globanomics and 'general equilibrium' theory.
It sounds very much like chaos theory where change can only be born from destruction.
Any new equilibrium will be short lived though. Calleman's last equilibrium lasted from 1993-1998 where there were no wars (except civil wars)
His next equilibrium is due Dec 2010 - Feb 2011.
With all Western systems in a state of decline/breakdown (financial/political/health/pension/energy) we need a lot of changes before this new equilibrium can be reached.
Peak destruction next spring will see oil rocket to $300-400 which will pave the way to water powered cars etc
No doubt the closure of hospitals like in Latvia will pave the way to new mega medical breakthroughs such as colloidal silver and hemp oil. It will be no surprise if these breakthroughs occur in Eastern Europe as we are seeing power being transferred to the east on every level.
As for energy flows connecting everything, you are correct. The Chinese have known about this energy for 5,000 years but the West is now on the verge of discovering this "dark energy" with modern instruments. What does it all mean? The Consciousness Singularity perhaps?
21. hpwatcher said...
Obviously there will be some kind of reaction to the billions upon billions of new money that has been created and pumped into the economy....and it isn't going to be pretty either.
Although I do not necessarily agree with sold 2 rent's slightly arcane explanation, it does not alter the fact that something absolutely bloody awful is on the way. Definitely, human ingenuity will find a way around it etc....but I am simply not prepared to lose my savings in the process.
22. general congreve said...
Many breakthroughs will come and make the world a better place, perhaps. But I think you're a bit optimistic on the time scale.
Something to think over:
We harness 'dark energy' (I don't know too much about this to be honest) or crack Nuclear Fusion - suddenly the human race is in possession of limitless cheap, cheap, cheap energy. Is this a good thing?
The price of energy puts cap on development at the moment, even if burning fossil fuels does do a lot of damage. What will happen to development when energy is limitless and dirt cheap?
My prediction is it will truly be the death knell for the planet, or more specifically for the human race, the planet will recover and we will become extinct. We'll consume ourselves into the ground with limitless energy because every human will be able to get all his wants satisfied easily. Sure we'll have hydrogen powered cars, because limitless energy will allow us to easily spilt tonnes of hydrogen from water for this technology. But what happens when 6 billion cars are produced for all the people because they're suddenly affordable and we are all running around in those cars on tonnes of new roads? There's every possibility it'll be a nightmare world to behold, thanks to human greed.
Maybe the NWOers have it right. Suppress the masses in poverty in a feudal global state. Maybe it's the only way to save humanity.
23. general congreve said...
Sorry @22 was in response to Sold 2 Rent 1 in case there's any confusion...
24. sold 2 rent 1 said...
GC,
"Maybe the NWOers have it right. Suppress the masses in poverty in a feudal global state. Maybe it's the only way to save humanity"
This could very well be what they think and plan to do. But even the NWO are patsies themselves; to an even higher (and dare I say it, multi-dimensional) command.
In the words of Bachman Turner Overdrive - "You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRELWOvsafg
25. happy mondays said...
@ general congreve - Straw dogs by john grey makes for an interesting read on what you have stated above, we have come such along way technology wise, however we have not evolved enough consciously, so rather than throw a spear and kill one person we can now press a button and kill many..
26. bellwether said...
This is one of the better threads on S2R1 scifi stuff but really wtf is this stuff about?
To me what comes across is a desperate need (not that there is anything wrong with that incidentally) for some underlying principle that unites things and might either make our existence whole or it's precariousness resonate with meaning. We are cynical and pessmistic perversly because we are ultimately romantic and have a probably misguided notion that we are for better things.
It interests me too that often when people are interested in grand theories there is often limited self awareness.
27. Gordiji said...
Gen con @ 19 " try to play the game to your best advantage"
This is the source of the problem. Everyone , bankers, politicians, joe bloggs trying to exploit without much concern for the consequences.
Selfishness.
Rarely does a man enquire into the nature of this self which one so fiercely defends.Constant change or 'flux' is the universal reality, so what is this 'self' with all its associated misery, that we're all trying to defend?
It's a very old question, resolved by so few.....but perhaps if we could all ponder it a little, we may move a little closer to S2R1's conciousness singularity.After that we needn't worry about the cost of houses.
28. general congreve said...
Bellwether @ 26 - With you all the way. No time underlying principles, and even if there are any, they're beyond human comprehension. And even if we could understand such things I don't expect it'd make our lives any more fulfilling.
Personally I don't think we're any more important than slugs, just took a different path on the evolutionary tree that's makes many us feel a lot more self-important than we really are. To be honest we've got more in common with virus's than anything else.
There is no reason to our existence, no point trying to fathom it out, no higher purpose, no after life, just enjoy the life you have for what it is, warts and all. Have fun, that's the main point as far as I can see.
29. sold 2 rent 1 said...
GC,
"But I think you're a bit optimistic on the time scale."
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function" - A Bartlett
By definition, the Consciousness Singularity will take most people by surprise (big understatement). It then makes total sense that global consciousness advancement is itself an exponential function where most of the change happens in the final moments. And because the zero year of this exponential is 16.4 billion years ago (2.7 billion years before our own big bang) we are rapidly approaching the final moments.
30. general congreve said...
S2R1 @ 28
Sorry mate, utter nonsense. I understand how exponential functions work. How the fact that many people probably can't get there head round it doesn't seem to be enough sound reasoning for anything remotely amazing happening, ever.
The people who dreamt up the theories you buy into are just human, and no more clued up than the muppets who wrote the Bible.
Life will go on, it will be pretty sh1tty for a lot of people for a few years, thanks to the economic incompetence we have seen and it's fallout. Big cataclysmic events may happen as a result, WW3 for example. However, it'll only be cataclysmic if you live on this planet. Much bigger sh1t goes down constantly all over the universe.
Hopefully we'll all come through this, and hopefully gold will go to $2000+ on the journey and I'll be sitting pretty. TA DA!!!
31. bellwether said...
Fair enough GC, I think human beings are mostly happier when closer to the ground and dealing with what is coming in via their senses.
S2R1 I'm thinking of changing my name to Calleman so I can get you to listen to me.
32. flashman said...
bellwether: I took a singularly conscious decision to find something in common with the musings of str1. My philosophy could be considered to be brutally pragmatic but I tried hard to find something in my craft that resonated with str1's more whimsical ideas. This is the sixth day that you’ve questioned str1 and I’m going to worry about it for the fifth night in a row. Anyway, I had a particularly nasty curry last night and consequently have a black energy blockage. Hopefully a colloidal will flush it out. I presume you’re angry because you couldn’t find a water-powered model when you went shopping for a car the other day? Arf arf
Str1: Two months ago I put 50 quid on The Baggies to stay up. Two games to go and it might just be possible. As Calleman predicted, the defense is moving twenty times quicker than it used to. I’ll be impressed if you can find any historical event big enough to resonate with West Brom avoiding relegation.
Vive la difference
33. sold 2 rent 1 said...
bellwether,
I am listening to you but you’re not saying much.
Your tone is in the same manner as conspiracy theorists normally get put down by the blind mainstreamers.
You prefer to think I have a personality disorder rather than REALLY examining the subjects I talk about.
Psychologists are the worst offenders here. They swallow every government report whole on climate change and vaccinations etc and disregard anything Western Science can't prove.
Well let's just say it is no coincidence that the Western nations are crashing just as Western science is about to discover “dark energy” that the Chinese have known for 5,000 years.
34. sold 2 rent 1 said...
flashmanm,
LOL - BTW 19 April 2009 was the low for gold. Next high for gold should be late August.
Armstrong also had another smaller turning point on 7 May. Looks like that maps to a general stocks high.
35. sold 2 rent 1 said...
flashman,
The only Calleman football resonance I have found is with Portsmouth winning the FA cup last year. Previously they won it in 1939 and kept it until 1946
In summary, Portsmouth held the FA cup both times during the peak period of the fifth night destruction.
Realistically though, this was coincidence even I have to admit
36. happy mondays said...
@ bellwether -ancient sages said "do not despise the snake for having no horns, for who is to say it will not become a dragon?" So may one just man become an army.
I posted this the other day, had to do it again...lol http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvd6s6q_LxU
If you never watched the water margin you are either too young or had a missed spent youth, and you missed a good programme...
ps what is self awareness ?
37. rumble said...
"Armstrong also had another smaller turning point on 7 May. Looks like that maps to a general stocks high."
That's not useful. Try to associate a date and subject at some point in the future. You haven't done that... (yet....?).
38. quiet guy said...
@S2R1
"Selling metals at their peak" (post no. 7)
Yes, but just how are you supposed to spot the peak? That's the tricky bit.
Perhaps GC has some ideas about peak gold?
39. sold 2 rent 1 said...
rumble,
"Try to associate a date and subject at some point in the future."
OK. 29 Aug 2009 a high in gold (Elliott wave 1)