Tuesday, May 12, 2009
RICS report (misleading headline)
Telegraph: House prices in Britain rise for first time in 18 months
The latest property market survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) showed fewer estate agents are now reporting falling prices.
It said 59.9% more estate agents said prices were falling rather than rising in April compared to the previous month - the highest figures since January 2008. In March, it was at 72.1%
The number of new buyer enquiries also increased, climbing for the sixth month in a row to its highest level in almost a decade.
It has translated into a rise in sales with the number of properties that estate agents are selling over three months edging up from 9.7 in March to 10.6 in April.
Jeremy Leaf, an RICS spokesperson, said: "There are tentative signs that the market is starting to pick up."
Posted by little professor @ 12:14 AM (1531 views) Add Comment
16 Comments
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1. little professor said...
There's nothing in the RICS report to suggest that prices are "rising for the first time in 18 months." In fact, 59.9% more estate agents are reporting falling prices than rising.
2. general congreve said...
B
O
L
L
O
X
!
3. amjidk said...
http://www.professorfekete.com/articles%5CAEFDailyBell.pdf
4. peter_2008 said...
Why can't RICS just say 80% EAs saw a drop and 20% EAs saw a rise? Or 4 out of 5 EAs see NO GREEN SHOTS?
Oh... that would be talking down the market...besides, they are probably too retarded to work it out anyway.
5. growler said...
EVERY Estate Agent knows: From Wimbledon onwards the market for the year is over.
With an upwards movement of under 10% on average sales per agent, RICS would be better off showing what a "normal" year sees at this time of year. They you'd see that this is nothing remarkable. More remarkable is that these super-low rates, QE and FTB incentives have only made this marginal blip at this; the most hot time in the EA market.
6. tyrellcorporation said...
I looked the other day (purely for research purposes) at what I could afford in terms of a fixed rate mortgage and I was shocked at how expensive it was. I have a sizeable deposit (50% - 75%) and to borrow £120k over 15 years was going to cost me about £1100 a month - and that was the most competitive offer. The Banks & BSs are coining it with the current spread available to them. I simply can't see how prices can start to edge up when affordability still seems such a long way off.
On the plus side for all those with savings, I can see rates heading up from now as there is currently a bit of a savings strike and BSs in particular are desperate for funds. I noticed one yesterday for 4.3% fixed for a year.
7. growler said...
Tyrell:
They must be on the roll. With base rates so low and the gap to mortgage payments so high, they must be - unless their losses on defaulting are so bad that the net effect on the balance sheet is only a marginal improvement.
We did a similar calculation re mortgage costs at similar figures to you. We're locked in until July/August/Sep anyway so can't buy. AS it happens, I also think that rates are going to go up so will wait to lock-in again. Once we are over "silly May", I expect the next batch of falling prices to coincide with increasing unemployment.
I see next years May as possibly the genuine slope of to a flat market. This would of course still mean if you can rent less than an interest only loan would cost, you would be better off renting and have 4% interest on your capital and no house maintenance bills as an owner occupier.
I therefore see the "renting factor" as one that might lengthen the decline in House Prices. Interesting to see the BBC property quiz reveals rents have dropped 9%. If that continues, why buy? even in a "flat" market you would be wasting your deposit.
8. sybil13 said...
Where is there ANYTHING in the article that says prices were rising?
9. uncle tom said...
Incredible headline - totally incorrect..
..was this piece also in the printed paper?
10. it_is_going_with_a_bang said...
Mis-leading to say the least.
Myra Butterworth is a desperate individual or somewhat 'dim'.
Less agents reporting drops so it's a rise?
This lady should be a politician.
11. inbreda said...
anyone know how to make a complaint about this journalism?
12. mander said...
Mr Leaf added: "House prices could stabilise in the coming months but prospective purchasers – and first-time buyers particularly – will continue to encounter challenges while banks maintain current loan to value ratios and make accessibility difficult even for those who have accumulated considerable equity in their existing properties."
So the market is looking good according to RICS: A person with £ 20,000 slary a year and working a few months every year wants to buy a £ 350 000 house in London (350 is minimum for a decent house) and the bank refuses credit. It is the bank,s fault not helping that person to get into negative equity.
At these current astronomic house prices green shots are more dangereous for sellers rushing on to the market to sell and because of the same astronomic house prices there will be no credit worthy buyers.
13. Neo-serf said...
Utter rubbish.
14. monty032 said...
You can tell the Daily Telegraph about the error by using the form here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/about-us/form/
15. watchman said...
tyrellcorporation,
can you please tell me where you saw the 4.3%??
16. p. doff said...
@14
Plenty of 4%+ savings around at the moment, from cash strapped building societies as tyrellcorp says. I've only seen these rates with fixed rate bonds - 12 months plus. I think West Bromwich do the 4.3%, but Coventry and Skipton B/socs are around 4%.
Remember the downgrading some B/socs have suffered - and it's usually the case that the higher the rate, the higher the risk. So it's wise to stay below the £50K FS/compensation scheme limits.