Friday, May 01, 2009
Mortgage broker Ray Boulger has a look at Nationwide's seasonal adjustment
Telegragh: Nationwide House Price Index: Actually, prices went up
Ray Boulger: " The "real" Nationwide House Price Index shows that prices rose by 0.6pc in April, after a rise of 2.2pc in March, and a fall of only 0.8pc in the first four months of 2009. "
Posted by wanderinman @ 05:59 PM (1797 views) Add Comment
11 Comments
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1. paul said...
No-one ever quibbled about the MoM or YoY stats when they were going up ...
2. bidin'matime said...
I'm quite sure our old pal Ray would be the first to say that you have to allow for seasonal factors if that made the figures look better...
3. nomad said...
Desperate, Desperate, Desperate!
4. will said...
Yes they've trebled where I live this year so far.
5. quiet guy said...
If he publishes his historical 'real' prices for comparison, then maybe he has a point but I suspect that we aren't going to see that any time soon. As Paul says, there was no problem when prices were going up.
6. wanderinman said...
Charcol have even given Mr Boulger his own blog.
http://www.charcol.co.uk/knowledge-resources/ray-boulgers-blog/article/view/the-nationwide-real-house-price-index-is-up-06-in-april/3307/
Is it just my PC, or is his post there very badly formatted?
7. quiet guy said...
Oops - update to my last. Ray has published some backdated data but only till Jan 2008.
http://www.charcol.co.uk/knowledge-resources/ray-boulgers-blog/article/view/the-nationwide-real-house-price-index-is-up-06-in-april/3307/#comments
What I'd really like to see is a least a few decades of data for comparison.
8. britishblue said...
Nationwide December 2008 -2.5%, January 2009 -1.3%.
Funny RB was quiet about seasonal adjustment then.
What on earth is he going to use in November.?
Gottit!. he is going to say prices always drop over rthe winter months, but don't worry, there will be a sharp rise in the spring.
9. shining wit said...
It's obvious really, house prices only ever go up.....even when the are dropping like a stone.
10. Mark said...
At least Ray had the courtesy to publish my criticism at his blog. I had a go at the seasonal adjustment practices of Halifax, as well as pointing out that all the house price data series are flawed with upward biasses anyway.
11. Jayk said...
nomad,
Do explain to me how this is "desperate". Is it not a statement of fact? Then care to tell me how "seasonal adjustment" is going to buy anyone a house for less money.
Personally, when I see an index I want to know what the data really are, not a headline figure which has been generated arbitrarily.
Nationwide et al are often accused of masking or disguising drops which people like you insist are here, there and everywhere. Yet when their own jiggery-pokery makes things look worse than they really are in April, you criticise a person for pointing it out. How absurd is that? I think we know who the desperate one really is.....
(And before the inevitable question is asked, actually I am renting until I can finally afford my own house - which I've been waiting for for about eight years now. But I've found dealing with reality rather than wishful thinking to be a much more healthy approach.)