Friday, May 22, 2009
Goldman Sachs tempers expectations of an imminent recovery in the UK housing market
The Telegraph: Housing market 'still has 10pc to fall'
In a comprehensive note on the housebuilding sector, the investment bank said it would be year before house prices found the bottom of the market in the second quarter of 2010.
Shares in house builders have rallied so far in 2009 as the likes of as Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon completed key refinancing packages and reported improved visitor levels and sales volumes compared to the depths of the financial crisis last Autumn.
However, Goldman analysts warned that, although sales volumes could rise by 12pc next year, prices will remain under pressure because of rising unemployment and the fact that property values are still well above the historical average of affordability of 3.8 times salary.
Posted by devo @ 10:16 PM (1523 views) Add Comment
17 Comments
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1. gone-to-colombia said...
Dream on
2. inflation is eating my savings said...
Is one supposed to bet with Goldmans or against them?
I am rather fond of the idea that the best time to buy is when nobody cares anymore- so presumably that will reflect traffic here?
Or is the addictive psychology thing going on with blogs damaging to this age-old dogma?
3. devo said...
"Is one supposed to bet with Goldmans or against them?"
It's an open secret that Goldman Sachs is currently propping up global markets. I don't know how long this will continue.
4. inflation is eating my savings said...
Why would they do that?
5. devo said...
"Why would they do that?"
Forgive my naiveteh, but is that a rhetorical question?
6. devo said...
Late night trivia quiz:
1.Incumbent US Treasury Secretary ,Tim Geithner, was previously an employee of:
a) Goldman Sachs
b) none of the above
2. The previous US Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson, was previously an employee of:
a) Goldman Sachs
b) none of the above
7. crunchy said...
4. Because without volitility you can't make money. One should always trade with Goldman, because market leaders are always right and that's why they are still around.
To do that one has to be nimble and understand that Goldman only start trades and finish them. The bit in the middle is for the lame.
These are the investors that keep Goldmans and the like rich. Why would they do that. rhetorical?
8. devo said...
"To do that one has to be nimble"
Indeed, crunchy. You speak as a gambler.
What about the investors?
9. crunchy said...
To be an investor involves dedication and self reliance. Nobody cares more for your money than the person trying to get it off you. lol
I don't speak as a gambler. I speak as a professional. Gamblers run out of luck very quickly, but it is a good starting point before the
learning process takes the fun out of it all.
10. devo said...
"I don't speak as a gambler. I speak as a professional."
Tautologous.
11. inflation is eating my savings said...
not rhetorical- i was wondering if a gun was being held to their heads- i clearly am naive. thx for the insight from you both.
12. crunchy said...
Ok, I'm a gambler.
It sounds much racier. The difference is I will not end up like James Dean.
13. crunchy said...
11.... I call it the greed gun.
People have the choice to pull the trigger.
Nobody is making them do it.
14. crunchy said...
10. devo
I thought along those lines once. I traded for quiet a while blowing out accounts thinking that this is all BS and the only guys making
money were the ones selling courses. Honestly, there is a big difference between blowing accounts and doubling them.
That is what makes one a professional, however I can't blame people for not seeing a difference.
15. Dhg said...
These analysts and economists just do not live in the real world.
They should try talking to Estate Agents, who have priced up, since 2007.
I will not be buying my first house until they return to 1999 prices. The real indicator of the true price of a house, will be the sold price of a repossession, at auction.
A return to 1999 prices is completely realistic. The only question is when?
16. mark wadsworth said...
@ Devo comment 6, exactly - that is why they are now called 'Government Sachs'.
And they are not propping up anything - they are being subsidised and bailed out as much as anybody else, just through the back door.
17. crunchy said...
Putting on the agony, putting on the style.
That's what all the bank folks are doing all the while.
propping up is what it's all about mark, but the prop stops with the banks.
There ain't no more money for the suckers they call yanks.
Putting on the agony, putting on the style,
That's what all the bank folks are doing with a smile.