Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Currently 23% so nearly 40% by the end of the year
Telegraph: UK house prices set to fall a further 14pc by end of 2009
The headline starts off well but then we have, "Mortgage lending rose by 29pc in March 2009 ", failing to report that CML figures confirm they FELL in April nearly 9% , down nearly 60% on April 2008 . Article quotes Rightmove's ASKING price, which even Rightmove's Director said "is more bad news than good", given that he has been saying since January that sellers needed to reduce 25 - 30% from peak. But more importantly we really must redefine the word " recovery" , recovery DOES NOT MEAN BACK TO 2007 but back to sustainable lending levels. When sellers rent waiting for the market to pick up do they consider that once prices have fallen 40% how long it will take to get back to 2007 levels? This year is the last year sellers will get anything like at 2007 price for a couple of decades
6 Comments
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1. techieman said...
"I was a home owner in the 80s, sold out in 89 when EVERYONE thought i was mad, purchased again in 93 and sold again in 2005 just before the fall. So yes lost out for the final blip, but thats cool as far as im concerned. to be honest didnt expect this one to end with a contraction in the credit markets - was just expecting an end to the bubble without something to pin it on to.
So was a bull in the 80s a bull in the 90s a bear in 2005 and an uber bear now. And sadly (and really i find no joy in saying this) the falls will be at least 40%, lots of people will then be hurting. What happens after that is the key, i think you will find that most asset bubbles are deflated with Fib numbers, i'd look for 89% in the long term. If that happens prices will stabilise and will take around 30 years to get back to these levels. Thats the case of the 1925 crash in Florida and looks to be panning out in Japan. Its naive to think it cant happen here. You have been warned! http://www.stock-market-crash.net/florida.htm
Monday, December 17, 2007 01:52PM " - http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2007/12/blog-fall-in-asking-prices-in-londonwow-8946.php
2. mark wadsworth said...
Aaah ... nothing like a bit of bear porn in amongst the doom and gloom :)
3. growler said...
Exactly right Sybil13 - but just as the "recession" word took quite a few months to be widespread in the papers, the truth about the properdee market will also take some time to come out. People will see that with wages falling and unemployment rising that houses have a lot further to fall:- since by the banks and FSA own declarations, they'll be limiting loaning to multiples of a measurable falling salary.
Being a cynical realist, when SubPrime Vocation start to publish data on house prices once more, then we'll be in a position of the end of the property crash. I can't see that happening for some time.
4. Mikey Moo said...
However, rival property consultants, King Sturge said they expect renewed confidence in the residential market “as early as next month”.
Brilliant. Brought a smile to my face.
5. Mikey Moo said...
However, rival property consultants, King Sturge said they expect renewed confidence in the residential market “as early as next month”.
Brilliant. Brought a smile to my face.
6. Ketha said...
I love it if the world of finance was as predictable as anyone hopes. No one seems to be right all the time, or even half the time. I give up.